Copuchas

3 hours ago, jackaub said:

11 to 1 on sportsbet

so happy to have $100 at 101 on Saturday morning

So we need to beat Carlton by 10 goals and beat Geelong. North have Sydney and GWS

Dare to dream

in to $9 now on Sportsbet.  Happy with my $100 at 101 from Sat morning too!  I think Carlton by 40 points and North losing to the Swans by 20-30 is a realistic outcome.  That eliminates the net points for / points against deficit and puts the focus on the round 23 outright results (more or less).  I'm feeling a keen sense of 1987 deja vu!

9 hours ago, Undeeterred said:

Our point differential with North is only 49 now....

I think you'll find it's 59....but substantially narrowed in any event...!

13 hours ago, WA Demon13 said:

100/1  TAB just got my money - If we can do it , theres my airplane ticket payed for.

I don't gamble.....but just joined Sportsbet and grabbed 101/1 for the Dees to make the 8...

The karma bus is gathering momentum....Brown and Thompson out of the Norf side tomorrow.  Swannies have won the last 9 at Etihad.  Let's go Dees!!

11 hours ago, Deefiant said:

I think you'll find out that's not quite how percentage works. Just like in the extreme example 2-1 is 200% and 101-100 is 101% despite the difference being 1 in both cases 

I think you'll find that absolute percentage here is not the driver, it is relative percentage compared with Norf.  Furthermore, I think you'll find that it is the points for / points against comparison between the two sides that is the determinant and that currently sits at 138 points in Norf's favour.  It doesn't matter how the gap is bridged in terms of them losing big or us winning big, so long as that net deficit is eliminated.  Perhaps avail yourself of a calculator.....

22 minutes ago, daisycutter said:

i used the afl ladder predictor

there are a limited number of points margins you can chose but the following combo gave us the edge by 0.2%

norf lose by 30,30,12     mfc win by 30,30,12     (-72 for them, +72 for us giving a net of 144 points)   so it's a fair stretch at an average +/- 24 points per game

I think you'll find the net points for / points against difference between us and Norf currently is 138 points ie 3 x 23 average winning margin for the Dees and 3 x 23 average losing margin for Norf would see a dead heat (how is that resolved I wonder?).  Challenging for sure but not beyond the realm by any stretch, particularly a Norf without Ben Brown.

On 11 August 2016 at 7:58 AM, armstrong35 said:

Fyfe is exploring his free agency options and wants to see what Lyon has planned for the future.

Can't see him leaving but success and money talk. Should we go hard for this guy? After Tom and Oscar have signed on the addition of Hurley would be such a bonus but now it's not desperate because Tmac is still at the club...

Thoughts?

The beauty here is that we get to see if the leg's come good before we play in the space (unlike O'Meara and Prestia).  We are now a destination club without doubt IMO and can afford to be choosy going forward.  No need to entertain Lumumba type trades where the desperate need for run off half back and line breaking abilities outweighed the existing concerns about H's mental state / robustness.

3 hours ago, hells bells said:

IF

We beat Port - 50:50

Hawks beat North - likely

Swans beat Saints - likely

We are the only team with a chance of taking North's position in the 8.

i believe North's percentage will take a hammering against Adelaide and GWS.

i believe it will come down to the our last game v Geelong.  

We are currently paying $101 to make the 8.  I may have had a little go at it.

Go Dees.

 

The maths is actually very neat.....Norf are a net 138 points higher than the Dees in terms of points for / points against.  If they lose their next 3 games by 69 points (3 x 23) and we win our three by the same winning margin, it will be all tied up!!   A challenging ask...but certainly not preposterous.  We need healthy wins (5 goals plus) over Port and Carlton and then a narrow win over Geelong whilst hoping that Norf suffer substantive defeats at the hands of the Hawks and the Swans and GWS gets up for their first win against Norf at Etihad.

3 minutes ago, Lucifer's Hero said:

TMac is the most underrated Dees player on Demonland. Media commentators are full of bs but each that I have heard have spoken glowing of Tom now and how good he will become.  They have him in the same conversation as Rance, Talia and Hurley.

It is no coincidence today was the second time Watson has stated their interest in Tom.  Watson is the EFC media mouthpiece.  He is their 'good cop'!  Clearly they are talking to Tom.  And they have the big $$ to throw at him and will pay overs which we have said we won't. 

Tom has at least 8 years of A+ performance ahead of him with a few AA's.  We might get a player or picks but there is no equivalent (except Talia).  Because we have shown our hand on Hibberd, I fear we will get shafted if Tom decides to go and nominates EFC. 

I just hope Tom tells them to GAGS! 

Fully concur and am surprised that in this thread and the Tmac contract thread more isn't being made of the uniqueness of the MFC position in having the two brothers on their list.  Trading and contracting players is all about exploiting market imperfections and discontinuities.  There is no doubt that both McDonald brothers would place a premium on playing in the same team and this can be leveraged to a degree by the MFC.  It would therefore have to be an overwhelmingly compelling value proposition to forego this benefit and trade Tom willingly (and in doing so put Oscar's future with the club in jeopardy).  

Others have commented on how the "Rance moments" lasted well in to his career.  Many of us believed that getting games in to Oscar during this season has come at a cost but the investment is starting to bear fruit.  He is only 20 and Tom's 23.  I would be aghast if any other course of action is being contemplated other than re-signing them both.  Augment them with Hibberd by all means and make the play for Hurley if there's a way of securing him cheaply (presumably due to a realistic threat of contract breach litigation).  But not by imperiling the McDonald brothers future with the club.

15 minutes ago, Abe said:

One of the more interesting interviews i've ever seen, some of what Jacko said was just horrible and he probably shouldn't ever be allowed on the air again, but i think he thinks he was being honest. 

Not sure any of the current day journo's ( Barrett, Caro and co ) could have handled an interview like that as well as what Mike did, i reckon he probably needed a cold one very quickly after that. 

I think the biggest take away i got from that was in a different era of footy two fundementals of the game were givens for just about every player, being able to use both sides when kicking, and being a good set shot at goal.

Not nearly enough time is spent on those things, growing up my old man made me kick on my left ( non dominant side ) at Auskick and my right at mini league which was straight after that to develop those skills, and it makes a very real difference in senior footy, but so many blokes go into the AFL system unable to kick both sides and missing easy set shots at goal, which i understand the pressure is a factor in that but it's not everything, though most players seem to rarely miss at training so it's not as simple as saying they should practice more.

 

I think you'll find that aerobic fatigue is a large part of the poor set shot conversion percentage in modern footy.  Certainly the likes of Jacko and Plugger didn't have to contend anywhere near as much with that factor.  Having said, playing surfaces were far inferior to what they are today and wind was a much greater factor at all venues (including the MCG pre Great Southern Stand and Members / northern stand redevelopments).

1 hour ago, Dr. Gonzo said:

Made a good point about the AFL's commitment to suburban / bush footy.

He did, but the decline of bush footy is a subset of a far broader issue ie the decline of country Victoria.  That can't be put at the feet of the AFL.  Country Victoria declined with increased farm size and mechanisation, the demise of large government services employers like the Victorian Railways and Australia Post etc.

This was a premeditated ambush by Jacko with the intent of reinvigorating interest in his speaking circuit engagements.  The man most definitely is not a fool.  He is a bogan. I've no doubt he helped refine Tony Lockett's kicking - Jacko was one of (if not) the best set shot I've seen in watching 45 years of footy.  308 goals, 144 behinds in 82 games of footy in sides that won 22 of those games (the Melbourne sides of 1981 and 1982 in which he kicked 76 goals in each year, won 1 game and 7 games respectively).    Watching him and Jed Healy work together plus R. Flower was why you went to the footy in 1981/82.

Just now, old dee said:

No conundrum for me Dawes gone Pedersen stays

Old Dee, I think that's probably the working premise.  For a lot of people though there'd be a view that Dawes' best betters Pedersen's best.  I suspect Roos is firmly in this camp and hence the patience and persistence.  Chris has showed tantalising glimpses of what he's capable of when fit and it makes us a better outfit.  However, there's been no injury excuse in recent times - he just didn't stand up when he needed to.  Pedersen on the other hand was going along pretty consistently before being struck down with illness / injury.  Tomorrow looms large for Dawes.

6 minutes ago, Nasher said:

Listening to Roos' press conference, bringing in Dawes is clearly in response to Hogan's frustration on the weekend.  Of course it should be expected that Dawes contributes to the team in his own right and if he doesn't he'll be dropped again, but I think that's the context.

It's been said numerous times that Hogan finds playing the game easier when Dawes is in the team - and specifically Dawes (same not true of Pedersen, for example).  We know Dawes won't kick 10 and may not even kick 1, but if he plays an adequate game where he contests, competes, tackles, and lifts Hogan by 50%, he is worth having in the team in my eyes.

Either way, we had to bring in a key forward.  The alternatives were Pedersen, who is coming off a lengthy layoff from illness and by all reports was awful for Casey, Hulett who is not ready, and Weideman who is less ready.  In the long term Weids or Hulett need to step up for this role, and pretty quickly because I think both Dawes and Pedersen are on borrowed time, but I'm comfortable with Dawes filling the role in the mean time.

Nasher, you're on the right track here.  I don't quite understand the hysteria around Dawes being brought in.  The fact is we have 6 weeks to determine whether to offer Dawes and Pedersen contracts next year.  Dawes is fit but out of form so he gets the first look at it.  We have looked better all year with the additional big body in the forward line, particularly with Watts needing to ruck and both he and Hogan spending not inconsiderable time in defence at the end of each quarter (or to try and get some hands on the footy in Jesse's case).  McKenzie was always going to be back in and he and McGovern are big bodies.  It was never going to be an option to throw Hulett and Weideman (more so) to the wolves.  One or other may well get a game in the twilight of the season but the imperative right now is the Dawes / Pedersen contract conundrum. 

24 minutes ago, bush demon said:

This: http://www.theage.com.au/wa-news/melbournes-jesse-hogan-shuts-down-dockers-advances-20160720-gqaa8f.html

that just about sums up the glass half full / glass half empty interpretation continuum associated with this!  No original source material - just a perspective on the Fox Sports interview.

For me (and I'm a glass half full guy on this particular topic), the key was where he hesitated slightly and quickly added "or whatever the case may be".

I've thought for some time that our risk is not in losing Jesse to WA (Freo or West Coast).  It is losing him to another Victorian club who are going places.  Fortunately the Dogs and Saints have their hands full in terms of competing young teams.  That leaves the perennial (Hawthorn), the smokey (Geelong - if they axe Clarke and figure that the game is passing Hawkins by) and the rank outsider (Pies).

The 1987 Western oval game has already been mentioned, but we shouldn't forget the elimination final against North the following week - 118 point victory over Norf at the G with R Flower kicking 5...in front of 72,000 for what was the Dees first finals appearance since 1964...the year before I was born.  And then to back it up the following week with a 76 point rout of the Swans in front of 80,000 with Flower kicking another 4.  Oh what heady days if you'd watched the Dees through the 70's and first half of the 80's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=C9DvrRC4fAw

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=y42wiEcP6_4

And let's not forget the following year and the Garry Lyon 70m barrel to sink Carlton in the wet in the 1988 Prelim Final ....thus booking the first GF appearance for the Dees in 26 years....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=POkDD9ggTR0

Dawes in the coaching box with Justin Plapp...

Both Wagner and Stretch aren't out there.  Also Dawes interestingly.

I note all the focus is on North continuing to lose in terms of a finals spot opening up.  But if Carlton were to roll the flat trackers on the G tomorrow, things could get interesting!  And they have Dockers, Giants (away), Hawks and Crows (away) to finish....

36 minutes ago, Ethan Tremblay said:

Just on the radio over here in the west, Karl Langdon said he spoke with Glen Bartlett at a function last night who stated Hogan will not be traded under any circumstances. 

There was a bit more said but mostly stuff we've heard. Hogan is loving Melbourne, his girlfriend is from Melbourne etc.

Ethan, taken in isolation with no context, this is open to multiple interpretations!  Was Glen saying that there is no way he would be traded at the end of this year ie with a year to run on his contract?  Or was it more definitive than that?  Surely if Hogan insists on returning to Perth at the end of 2016 (improbable in my view) Melbourne will be forced to trade for him, lest they end up in a GWS / McCarthy scenario?  Did Langdon come off his hitherto unequivocal position on this?

1 minute ago, Wiseblood said:

Another domino falls! Only a few to go now, get it done Josh!

Great to have Kent signed for a few more years, still lots of improvement left in him I reckon! 

Spot on Wiseblood.  The pincer movement becomes more apparent with each passing week.  This one will be crucial in terms of Jesse's deliberations and influential in the deliberations of any players outside the club that may be pondering their futures.   It can't hurt in the Tmac scenario either, particularly if it emerges that Dean left some money on the table with this (not asserting that's the case).

4 minutes ago, ding said:

Was my nom as biggest improver this year before the season started (I was wrong as its probably Watts)

Stoked that Kenty has signed up.

Max Gawn hasn't been too shabby!

Only got to training towards the finish but did observe the centre circle huddle at the end in which Roos, Jones, Stretch, Brayshaw, Wagner and Bugg participated.  Using the head bowed / head up criteria (which I know won't be sufficiently robust for jnrmac and some others on here who demand irrefutable information sources unless, oddly enough, it's their own observation), Brayshaw is in and Stretch is out at a minimum.  I think Wagner may also get a guernsey but perhaps that's as an emergency in case Omac doesn't come up (looked to be moving freely in the brief window of training I observed, as did Vince).

9 minutes ago, The Great Pretender said:

Why is Clayton Oliver player here and not at Etihad?

Because he wasn't selected in the AFL side.  Brayshaw, Wagner and Bugg were added to the AFL squad which will be trimmed to 23 players by 5pm today.  Someone will be the emergency and the other two will go in to the Casey team

Another aspect of Jack that hasn't garnered much attention is his durability.  His mental resilience is apparent by virtue of what he's been through.  But physically, he's barely missed a game.  This makes him an even more valuable player to have on the list.  Long may it remain the case!