Each year Foxtel pick improvers and decliners based on the previous season's close results. Theyre reasonably good predictions normally and in a nutshell they're tipping Melbourne to go from really average to average.

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This tip is a bit harder to defend because Pythagoras doesn’t know they traded out two million-dollar (former?) superstar midfielders.

Christian Petracca was pretty good last year, and Clayton Oliver was fine, but their Demons got brutally unlucky in a series of close games. The overall record of 2-6 doesn’t sound historically bad, but did you actually see the games?

Remember the two Collingwood losses, both King’s Birthday and the final-round collapse? Remember Lachie Keeffe, of all people, kicking the winner for GWS? Heck, remember The Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Game, aka the greatest comeback from a three-quarter-time deficit in V/AFL history?

The Demons were a properly bad team at the start of the season, but after their 0-5 start when Simon Goodwin and his coaching staff made some tweaks, they were simply average. They lost just three games by more than 20 points, and had some very solid wins including knocking off Brisbane in Brisbane.

Now, how much does the fact that they were an OK team by the end of the season matter when you’re projecting forward? Well, that’s the impossible question to answer… but it feels unlikely losing Petracca and Oliver is going to make them immediately better.

Just remember when you’re doing your predicted ladder that they weren’t what their record says they were; they’re not a seven-win team that’s getting worse, they’re a nine or 10-win team that’s likely taking another step backwards in their first year under a new coach."

Edited 2 hours ago2 hr by Go Ds

2 hours ago, Go Ds said:

Each year Foxtel pick improvers and decliners based on the previous season's close results. Theyre reasonably good predictions normally and in a nutshell they're tipping Melbourne to go from really average to average.

Fox Sports

Moneyball theory reveals AFL teams to rise, fall this yea...

Brutally unlucky team set to rise; warning signs finals duo will dip — AFL ladder verdict

"Improve

This tip is a bit harder to defend because Pythagoras doesn’t know they traded out two million-dollar (former?) superstar midfielders.

Christian Petracca was pretty good last year, and Clayton Oliver was fine, but their Demons got brutally unlucky in a series of close games. The overall record of 2-6 doesn’t sound historically bad, but did you actually see the games?

Remember the two Collingwood losses, both King’s Birthday and the final-round collapse? Remember Lachie Keeffe, of all people, kicking the winner for GWS? Heck, remember The Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera Game, aka the greatest comeback from a three-quarter-time deficit in V/AFL history?

The Demons were a properly bad team at the start of the season, but after their 0-5 start when Simon Goodwin and his coaching staff made some tweaks, they were simply average. They lost just three games by more than 20 points, and had some very solid wins including knocking off Brisbane in Brisbane.

Now, how much does the fact that they were an OK team by the end of the season matter when you’re projecting forward? Well, that’s the impossible question to answer… but it feels unlikely losing Petracca and Oliver is going to make them immediately better.

Just remember when you’re doing your predicted ladder that they weren’t what their record says they were; they’re not a seven-win team that’s getting worse, they’re a nine or 10-win team that’s likely taking another step backwards in their first year under a new coach."

Thanks Go Ds I am really hoping that our Ins > Outs, apart from Tracc. Can King & Co improve our list in ‘26, that is the burning question. Judging from the Training Reports I am in the affirmative corner, no bottom four for me, it’s pushing for 9-10th for me at this point in time barring a run of injuries.