TWILIGHT ZONE by The Oracle

Hawthorn and Melbourne. Two teams with impressive form from last week but with seasons that are travelling on different trajectories meet in Saturday’s twilight game for what could well be the most intriguing contest of the AFL’s penultimate round.

Sadly, the game has been relegated to that unappealing time slot in the weekend when Melburnians are typically preoccupied with activities other than football. It falls between the morning's shopping, afternoon sport and recreation, and Saturday night fever. A time usually reserved for relatively insignificant events but this one is not a nothingburger for either of the clubs or their fans.

The Hawks have every incentive to win this game, as their season hangs precariously in the balance. With only two games remaining, one misstep could result in the finals door closing on them. In contrast, the Demons have minimal motivation to win, and some argue that losing would be beneficial, securing a bottom-four finish and potentially gaining advantages from the AFL's supposed equalisation process. Incidentally, that system is flawed because Hawthorn, who finished in the top six last year, will end up with fewer regular season games against this year’s finalists than Melbourne, which finished in the bottom six.

The reality for the Demons therefore is that even in the absence of a tangible reward for the win, they must persevere, not merely for pride, but also for the future of every player who dons the jumper. The eyes of any prospective new coach will be focused on every member of the 23 making up the team, and for many, their future at the club and in the sport will be on the line. This expectation should be implicit in professional sports, yet Melbourne's recent history renders it a stark reality. And with that, I expect the game to reach a similar high standard to that which we saw in its game against the Bulldogs.

It’s worth reiterating that, as is the case with any game involving the Melbourne Football Club these days, the team's fortunes are largely contingent upon the performance of its All-Australian bound captain, Max Gawn, who consistently delivers outstanding results. Last week, he once again led by example, producing a best-on-ground performance that included 23 disposals at 73% efficiency, 42 hit-outs, and a goal. His opponent this week Lloyd Meek, had a standout game in the Hawks' decisive victory over the Magpies, with 32 hit-outs, seven marks, and three important goals. Meek has always performed well against Gawn so this contest will be crucial. That said, the rest of the team also needs to stand up and demonstrate that it’s not reliant on the efforts of one player.

 There’s plenty of talent still at Melbourne. The team is not nearly as old as the side that Hawthorn brushed aside last week and with many of its more experienced brigade needing to demonstrate their relevance for next year, the game should go down to the wire. Failing this, we can expect one or two names associated with that 2021 premiership to been elsewhere in 2026 in much the same way as the Hawks bit the bullet when Sam Mitchell turned up to first coach and set the team up to become a finalist in a short span of time.

Melbourne looked great at times last week when they got going, particularly in the third quarter when they instigated fast movement forward, often starting at half back. The improvement obvious from the change of style from contested play was somewhat blunted when the Bulldogs place pressure on the backline which held up well against their keys but in the end, something had to give and Bontempelli and Richards were too good. I expect the Hawks to apply similar pressure on the Demons defence which should be bolstered by the return of Steven May. Melbourne will also need to augment its arsenal of faster players after Caleb Windsor’s hamstring injury, accentuated by the continued absence of Xavier Lindsay.

I expect Melbourne to put up a good fight but, with the Hawks desperate for the four points to stay in the finals race and maintain a charge for a final four chance, they should just prevail in football’s twilight zone.

Hawthorn by 14 points.

THE GAME

Hawthorn v Melbourne at the MCG Saturday 16 August 2025 at 4.15pm

HEAD TO HEAD 

Overall Hawthorn 88 wins Melbourne 83 wins 1 draw

At the MCG Hawthorn 47 wins Melbourne 43 wins 1 draw

Last 5 meetings Hawthorn 1 win Melbourne 4 wins 1

The Coaches Mitchell 0 wins Chaplin 0 wins

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Hawthorn 13.13.91 defeated Melbourne 7.14.56 at The MCG in Round 9 2025

Melbourne fought tenaciously for three quarters and remained competitive until Hawthorn accelerated and finished strongly. The game was marred by poor umpiring, exemplified by the failure to award an obvious free kick to Kozzy Pickett, who was tripped in the goal square. The Hawks were buoyed by the lucky break and went on to win by a comfortable 35 points.

THE TEAMS 

HAWTHORN

B J. Battle, T. Barrass, B. Hardwick

HB J. Impey, J. Sicily, J. Scrimshaw

C K. Amon, C. Nash, C. MacDonald

HF M. D'Ambrosio, C. Dear, N. Watson

F J. Gunston, M. Lewis, D. Moore

FOLL L. Meek, J. Newcombe, J. Worpel

I/C C. Jiath, J. Ward, M. Chol, J. Ginnivan, L. Breust

EMG B. MacDonald, C. Mackenzie, J. Serong

NO CHANGE

MELBOURNE

B T. McDonald, S. May, T. Rivers

HB J. McVee, D. Turner, C. Salem

C J. Culley, C. Petracca, H. Langford

HF K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, K. Chandler

F J. Melksham, J. Van Rooyen, T. Sparrow

FOLL M. Gawn, J. Viney, E. Langdon

I/C J. Bowey, B. Howes, C. Oliver, H. Petty, H. Sharp

EMG J. Adams, J. Billings, A. Johnson

IN S. May, H. Sharp

OUT J. Adams (omitted), C. Windsor (hamstring)

Injury List: Round 23

Xavier Lindsay — groin / 1 week 

Oliver Sestan — face / 1 week

Marty Hore — knee, shoulder / season

Jake Lever — ankle/ season

Shane McAdam — Achilles / season

Andy Moniz-Wakefield — knee / season

Caleb Windsor — hamstring / season