ONE-POINT REALITY CHECK by Dees In October

[Demonland 71,868]

Casey Fields was awash with pink as Melbourne once again showed its support for the Breast Cancer Network Australia Pink Lady Cause. The Blues have built form in the last few weeks, so this was a danger game, especially with the Demons coming off such a sensational victory in the West.

Ex-teammates became foes, with Gay and Harris lining up against their former side as well as ex-Dees O’Dea and Guerin playing for Carlton. Birch notched up 50 games, while Daisy reached forty. With a top spot a possibility and top two on the line, it all started well with the Dees winning the toss and electing to kick with the breeze.

FIRST QUARTER

The first five minutes were played between the arcs, with neither side able to make any meaningful forward entries. Melbourne players were repeatedly brought up short due to Carlton’s pressure, before a good chain through the midfield eventually found Harris presenting 45 metres out. Soon after, in Harris’s first contest deep forward, the Blues were well represented, in a sign of things to come. When Demon reinforcements arrived, the forward pressure was there but they lacked the killer instinct that might have created a scoring opportunity. Soon after, another chance went begging as players tried to find the perfect option, going one or two handpasses too many before Daisy pulled the trigger for no score. Daisy then attempted to shepherd through a Sherriff attempt, but it leapt offline at the last second. She was right back in the action after Bannan was alert to a poor kick in, gathered cleanly and hit up Daisy directly in front for the game’s first goal.

Gillard won the next clearance and kicked long, and eventually, after Mithen pushed Prespakis over the line and nearly into the Casey Fields Lake, the ball made its way forward and Hore missed a soccer opportunity. When the Blues did make their way forward, it came through Demon errors, including a shocker from the milestone woman in Birch. The backline worked hard to get numbers back and then launched a counterattack virtually unopposed down the outer wing, with Daisy’s pass to the pink ribboned Bannan perfectly read and then converted. With the seconds ticking down, Harris wheeled around quickly from 50 to try to add another, but her shot was just offline. After an even start, the Dees had controlled the last part of the quarter, but real scoreboard damage had proven elusive.

SECOND QUARTER

Carlton’s tackling pressure was on show early, exemplified by former Demon Guerin who was having none of L Pearce’s trademark straight-out-of-the-ruck clearance manoeuvre. The Blues were intent on disrupting Melbourne’s clearance game, sending an extra to the stoppage. At first, this generally just meant the ball landed in the hands of the Melbourne spare. Yet Melbourne wasn’t making any inroads forward either, with a poor kick by Mithen inside 50 compounded by a 50-metre-penalty. Heath bobbed up for a mark to halt the resultant Carlton forward thrust, but another soon followed, with a chaotic bouncing ball finding its way past a Prespakis-Birch skirmish to Stevens out the back and she kicked a gem. Melbourne had the quick reply, courtesy of a cheap 50-metre-penalty to Bannan, her second a valuable one against the wind.

In the next play, McNamara floundered under a high ball and was challenged strongly by Prespakis. The ball spilled to Gee—now on the wing and probably happy to get away from Heath.

Stevens’ ensuing minor score was a fortuitous let off. The Blues weren’t lying down though and returned the ball inside 50 with pace. An unlucky bounce saw the ball clear Lampard then Birch opted to try to take possession instead of spoiling to the advantage of the multiple Demons waiting, and Stevens was the beneficiary with her second.

A comprehensive Blues win at the next bounce allowed Prespakis to stream out the front and soon the away team was within two points. Gay halted the next attempt, and Melbourne moved forward, again through the Bannan-Daisy combination. In a repeat entry, Purcell kicked neatly to Bannan, who kicked a career-best third goal, a much-needed settler. However, loose checking gave Sherar a shot on goal, and a lapse in positioning on the goal line ensured it went through. Suffice to say, Melbourne was under the pump.

THIRD QUARTER

Any notion of a percentage-boosting win and a chance at top spot was out the window, and it was now a battle for victory to retain second. The ball darted between the arcs early, with Melbourne having the most of the footy but Carlton able to cut off the ball with a spare back. Some sloppy disposals let the Demons down and didn’t exactly inspire confidence. There was a sense that many players were trying to do a bit too much, a prime example being Daisy summing up her options a second too long and getting run down. The quarter seemed to flash by in a blur of tackles, smothers and fumbles, with few moments of clean footy or time and space. Harris put in a failed attempt at mark of the year but was otherwise almost unsighted.

Things became increasingly brutal, with some big hits, particularly a series of contests involving Heath, Gee, Prespakis, Lampard and Guerin, capped off by Gay blatantly pushing Guerin over after the resultant free kick (lucky not to be paid downfield). Guerin’s kick went to the square and Paxman saved the day on the last line. The Dees barely clung to possession as they escaped along the wing, but somehow kept it going forward until Goldrick found herself in space and facing that familiar quandary of whether or not to risk a bounce. She did, it came back (praise the footy gods!) and she linked with Bannan who went in the Harris direction. For once, she didn’t have fifteen Blues hanging off her, but the kick fell short and she was forced into a rushed shot on goal, for no score. Mithen won a free shortly after about 40 metres out, and she pinpointed a pass to a diving Daisy who kicked a goal made crucial by the fact it was the only score of the quarter.

FOURTH QUARTER

Carlton had succeeded in making it a scrap, but could they find the goals with the game on the line and Melbourne putting everything into defence? Goldie was up for the fight with some big repeat efforts early. Their decision-making and spread left a bit to be desired and with eight minutes remaining, it was a seven-point margin.

The Dees continued to kick into the corridor where the Blues had numbers, constantly flirting with danger. One such example by McNamara gifted the Blues a forward entry, and Stevens made another goal out of nothing, again assisted by Melbourne’s poor defence of the goal line. That narrowed the margin to one point, and Carlton, led by a dominant Moody in the ruck, were up and about.

With four minutes to go, thanks to Bannan cutting off a pass in the middle, Hore had a chance at a matchwinner; alas she could only expand the margin to two points. As Melbourne kept the ball trapped forward, the Dees cheer squad were vocal, urging our team on with enough volume for me to hear from the opposite end. We chewed off two minutes, before Laloifi gathered and drove it to Carlton’s half-forward line. A high free kick against Goldrick handed Prespakis the ball on 50 and with a minute remaining, the ball was camped in Carlton’s goal square. A rolling scrum pushed the ball to the boundary, rather than the preferred option of a rushed behind. Goldrick gathered from the throw-in, tried to step Vescio and failed to connect her kick as she was thrown in the tackle.

So, with 30 seconds on the clock, it was Vescio, the competition’s all-time leading goalkicker, with the chance to win the game from the pocket…and they missed. Dees fans united to try to convince the umpire that Harris had marked on the goal line— she had very much not! Still, a slight delay allowed Melbourne every opportunity to get organised for the kick-in. “Never retire!” someone yelled as Daisy prudently chose the safe option, and a well-positioned Gay marked strongly to see off the Blues’ challenge. It was unconvincing, it was ugly, but it their thirteenth straight victory at Casey and took the Demons through to a preliminary final for the third year running.

STATS & STAND-OUTS

Melbourne had more of the ball, with 267 disposals to Carlton’s 218, winning both the contested (119-109) and uncontested battles (149-110), with disposal efficiency fairly even (63% to 58%). Inside 50s were even (31-28), as was efficiency inside 50 (29% to 36%). Again, Melbourne was able to dominate the marking (44-25), including 4 contested marks to 1, and 7 to 3 inside 50. Carlton had the better of the clearances (25 to Melbourne’s 17), winning in the centre (8 to Melbourne’s 5) and at the stoppages (17 to Melbourne’s 12). Key to this was Carlton’s ascendency in the ruck, with 31 hit-outs to 11. L Pearce (9 hit outs) had little influence, while Carlton’s Moody solidified her claim for the All-Australian ruck with 22 hit outs.

Stevens’ three goals for Carlton were exceptional, matched at the other end by the ever-improving Bannan. Daisy’s double bookended Melbourne’s scoring and was vital. Mithen led the disposals with 26 (8 tackles), with Hanks close behind (25, 4 clearances), followed by Paxman (15, racking up her 1,000th disposal in the process), ex-Dee Guerin (19 and 12 tackles) and the Blues’ young star Hill (19). West (7 tackles) and Purcell strived to be involved but were less impactful. McNamara looked unusually hesitant, while the milestone woman in Birch had a game to forget, beaten soundly by Stevens. Colvin and Gay had 4 marks apiece in the backline and had some important moments, while Lampard was consistent. Heath impressed again one-on-one, while Goldrick put in her usual effort but was let down by some errors in defence.

The forward line never really got going, with Harris triple teamed at times and repeatedly out of position. It was her first goalless game as a Demon, putting an end to her season’s highest goalkicker campaign. Meanwhile, Hore and Scott weren’t able to contribute as they’d have liked. Daisy and Bannan provided other avenues to goal; however, we’ll need a more even spread against stronger opposition. Fitzsimon does the hard stuff consistently and shows some real footy smarts.

Carlton knew if they brought the pressure, that was their best hope of snatching victory, and they very nearly did. The issue is well-identified by now: Melbourne struggles against tackling teams. It will likely rue the opportunity to gain percentage here and challenge for top spot, with 10% going down the gurgler.

At the end of the home and away season, it’s worth noting that the 90% H&A win percentage from 10 games is Melbourne’s best in AFLW, in the longest H&A season to date. 

MELBOURNE 2.3.15 4.3.27 5.3.33 5.4.34

CARLTON 0.0.0 4.1.25 4.1.25 5.3.33

GOALS

MELBOURNE Bannan 3 D Pearce 2

CARLTON Stevens 3 Good Sherar

BEST

MELBOURNE Hanks Bannan D Pearce Mithen Paxman

CARLTON Stevens Hill Guerin Hill Prespakis Egan

INJURIES 

MELBOURNE Nil

CARLTON Nil

REPORTS

MELBOURNE Nil

CARLTON Nil

CROWD  TBC at Casey Fields

NEXT - FINALS A week off and then our first AFLW home preliminary final against the winner of Brisbane vs. Collingwood.

THE LAST WORD Time to refresh and re-group, finals are a different beast.