SO by The Oracle

[Demonland 74,520]

So apart from Aaron vandenBerg who was subbed off after a hamstring injury in the first half last week's game and Jack Viney who copped a corked calf around the same time, Col Garland broke his hand in the first quarter and before that, Christian Salem injured his previously "good" hamstring on Saturday morning at training. It hasn't really been a good week ...

So that doesn't really inspire one to confidently look forward to the next set of two matches facing the Melbourne Football Club against clubs that (whilst admittedly both are outside the top eight) are holding a long string of consecutive wins against it and at venues where Demon victories have been as scarce as hen's teeth. That's not really such a good thing in the scheme of things ...

So take this week's game against St Kilda at Etihad Stadium - a venue where Melbourne's losing run stretched to twenty by the end of last year. The Saints haven't been much chop lately but they somehow grow legs when they play the Demons and they have only one senior list player on their injury list. That doesn't really auger well for this week ...

So the Demons aren't the highest scoring team in the competition and in fact, they only surpassed the struggling Gold Coast Suns who have an even longer injury list in points scored for the season by a mere four points. That doesn't really suggest that we can expect enough scoring to beat even the Saints ...

So the Melbourne selection panel has gone young this week selecting hard nosed debutant Alex Neal-Bullen along with his mate from Glenelg Billy Stretch while the Saints have added Sam Gilbert and lost their best young player Jack Billings. They have that vital edge in experience ...

So why am I so supremely confident about Melbourne's ability to win this week?

THE GAME

St. Kilda v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday 14 June, 2015 at 4:40 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall St. Kilda 87 wins Melbourne 118 wins 1 drawn

At Etihad St. Kilda 5 wins Melbourne 3 wins

Past five meetings St. Kilda 5 wins Melbourne 0 wins

The Coaches Richardson 1 win Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel at 4.30pm (live)

RADIO - LiveTriple M 3AW SEN ABC

THE BETTING

St. Kilda to win - $1.80 Melbourne to win - $2.00

THE LAST TIME THEY MET St. Kilda 10.8.68 defeated Melbourne 6.15.51 in Round 1, 2014 at Etihad Stadium

Melbourne started favourite to beat the Saints despite a big injury list which limited its ruck and key position stocks but after early goals to Jimmy Toumpas and Dean Terlich things went awry. Tom McDonald was injured after blanketing Nick Riewoldt and Jack Fitzpatrick had to be subbed off due to concussion. To compound matters the team kicked ten consecutive behinds before half time and Riewoldt ended up best on the ground in the Saints' 17 point win.

THE TEAMS

ST. KILDA

B: Jarryn Geary, Sean Dempster, Sam Gilbert

HB: Jack Newnes, Luke Delaney, Jimmy Webster

C: Leigh Montagna, David Armitage, Blake Acres

HF: Sebastian Ross, Nick Riewoldt, Darren Minchington

F: Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce, Jack Lonie

FOLL: Billy Longer, Luke Dunstan, Jack Steven

I/C: Farren Ray, Dylan Roberton, Shane Savage, Maverick Weller

EMG: Hugh Goddard Daniel McKenzie, Cameron Shenton

IN: Luke Dunstan, Sam Gilbert, Tim Membrey, Darren Minchington, Maverick Weller

OUT: Jack Billings (shin soreness), Tom Hickey (omitted), Adam Schneider (omitted), Cameron Shenton (omitted), Jack Sinclair (omitted)

MELBOURNE

B: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jack Grimes

HB: Jeremy Howe, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

C: Jimmy Toumpas, Dom Tyson, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Jack Watts, Cam Pedersen, Jack Viney

F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Angus Brayshaw

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince

I/C: Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Aidan Riley, Billy Stretch

EMG: Jack Fitzpatrick, Jake Spencer, Dean Terlich

IN: Jack Grimes, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen, Billy Stretch, Dom Tyson

OUT: Jack Fitzpatrick (omitted), Colin Garland (hand), Matt Jones (omitted), Ben Newton (omitted), Aaron vandenBerg (hamstring)

NEW: Alex Neal-Bullen (Glenelg)

There comes a time for everything and Melbourne's appalling record both at Etihad Stadium and against St. Kilda must come to an end sooner or later and now is the time. The club's last win at this stadium dates back to a Saturday night late in 2007 when the coach was Mark Riley.

Remember him?

Riley was appointed the caretaker coach of Melbourne when Neale Daniher resigned in the middle of the 2007 season. He coached the club on nine occasions as the year unfolded although two of those wins were rather dubious given they were against Carlton at the MCG during the Blues' grand slam of tanking list management. Riley then moved to Carlton as an assistant to prepare the way for Brock McLean's arrival a couple of years later. Riley's other win as an AFL coach was the team's game at the Docklands against the Western Bulldogs - an easy victory which cost it a priority draft pick that year so even when the Dees win over there, they really lose.

Melbourne last won a match against St. Kilda in the 2006 Elimination Final when McLean played a blinder at night on the MCG. It was the club's last winning final and is the marker for the beginning of the end of a relatively successful period in its recent history. Daniher was still the coach in those days but a procession of other coaches in the interim have seen the Saints win their last ten games on end against the Demons. You need to go back all the way to 2002 to find a successful Melbourne result against St. Kilda at Etihad Stadium. That's almost ancient history in footballing terms!

Of course, for much of this period the Saints were in the ascendancy and it's only been in the last two or three years that they have headed southward ladder wise. The Dees have only been in contention against them once or twice in recent times. They started favourites to win their season opener last year but fluffed it when injury and poor kicking for goal conspired to leave them three goals adrift.

Now the times are changing. I liked the way Max Gawn improved in the ruck as the game progressed on Queens Birthday. His deft ruck work in combination with his midfielders saw a major improvement in that division but the pressure exerted by Collingwood caused turnovers and was far too strong in the end. I don't believe that the Saints will be able to exert the same level of pressure this week and I doubt it possible that one team of 22 players can produce enough moments of brain fades as to allow for more of the same two weeks in a row.

So, I'm tipping Melbourne to win by 15 points and bring the roof and the hoodoo down at Etihad.