THE WRITING ON THE WALL by The Oracle

[Demonland 73,266]

Gary Ablett's shoulder popped out of its socket early in the third quarter of the Gold Coast Suns v Collingwood game in Round 16 last year and with it went his team's prospects of a finals appearance. The Suns finished 12th, just a game out of the top eight with ten wins and a percentage of 93.7.

Melbourne also struggled at the end of 2014 losing its last 10 games and finishing in 17th position on four wins, ahead only of St. Kilda on percentage.

Fast forward six months to the pre season competition of 2015 and even without Ablett and a handful of other regulars, the Suns managed 1½ wins as against Melbourne's solitary victory and a record that included a loss to a half-baked Essendon in its final NAB Challenge hit out. We don't take much notice of practice matches but has anything changed?

The Demons have recruited well with Heritier Lumumba (Collingwood), Jeff Garlett (Carlton), Sam Frost (GWS Giants) and Ben Newton (Port Adelaide) crossing from other AFL clubs inclusions for Saturday's season opener against the Suns along with the long-awaited debut of boom youngster Jesse Hogan, the inclusion of young draftee Angus Brayshaw and mature age Canberran rookie upgrade Aaron vandenBerg. The Suns have recruited Nick Malceski (Sydney) and Mitch Hallahan (Hawthorn) and have also introduced some fresh young faces but they will be relying mainly on their bevy of runners like Harley Bennell and Dion Prestia and, of course, Ablett himself to press home the advantage.

The key to this game remains the man who hasn't played a game since 5 July and has yet to take part in even a practice match this year. However, my rule of thumb is to always take note of those who frame the odds and once it became clear that Ablett was definitely in the mix to play this weekend, the Suns' firmed with the betting agencies.

According to the Official AFL Player Ratings, Ablett starts the season as the No. 1 ranked player on 723.4 player ratings points, nearly 30 points ahead of second placed Scott Pendlebury on 692.9. The leading Demon, skipper Nathan Jones, sits just outside the top 100 in 101th place with 405.5 points.

If there really was such a thing as a one man team, then the writing would be well and truly on the wall.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Gold Coast Suns at the MCG Saturday 4 April, 2015 at 1.40 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 3 wins Gold Coast Suns 3 wins

At MCG Melbourne 2 wins Gold Coast Suns 2 wins

Past five years Melbourne 3 wins Gold Coast Suns 3 wins

The Coaches Roos 0 wins Eade 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel - 1.30pm (live)

RADIO - Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win - $2.95 Gold Coast Suns to win - $1.40

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Gold Coast Suns 11.20.86 defeated Melbourne 11.12.78 Round 5, 2014 at the MCG

It was close on 12 months ago when the teams faced off at the MCG. It was a close game although the Suns took the lead in the second quarter despite their inaccuracy in front of goal and held on to it for the remainder of the game. A costly but questionable free given away to Gary Ablett Junior for interference in the last quarter gave the visitors the breathing room necessary to take away the points. Ablett had 32 touches and a goal while Nathan Jones was the Demons' star with 30 disposals and 5 tackles.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Christian Salem, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Heritier Lumumba, Daniel Cross, Ben Newton

HF: Dean Kent, Jesse Hogan, Jimmy Toumpas

F: Jeff Garlett, Sam Frost, Jack Watts

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Nathan Jones, Dom Tyson

I/C: Jack Viney, Angus Brayshaw, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Aaron vandenBerg

EMG: Max Gawn, Jack Grimes, Matt Jones

NEW: Angus Brayshaw, Sam Frost, Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Heritier Lumumba, Ben Newton, Aaron vandenBerg

GOLD COAST SUNS

B: Jarrod B: Harbrow, Rory Thompson, Kade Kolodjashnij

HB: Trent McKenzie, Steven May, Nick Malceski

C: Jack Martin, Dion Prestia, Alex Sexton

HF: Michael Rischitelli, Sam Day, Matt Shaw

F: Harley Bennell, Daniel Gorringe, Touk Miller

FOLL: Zac Smith, Gary Ablett, David Swallow

I/C: Mitch Hallahan, Jarrod Garlett, Adam Saad, Greg Broughton

EMG: Tom Nicholls, Brandon Matera, Seb Tape

NEW: Jarrod Garlett, Mitch Hallahan, Nick Malceski, Touk Miller, Adam Saad

OFF THE WALL

The reality is that it will be the best team that wins this game and for Melbourne, I suspect that we have seen in the selection of its team a pointer to the area of its likely improvement over its abysmal record of recent years.

One half of the selected 22 were yet to play an AFL game for the Demons when Paul Roos arrived at the club 18 months ago. Seven are making their debut with the club in Saturday's game while four others - Dom Tyson (GWS Giants), Daniel Cross (Western Bulldogs) and draftees Christian Salem and Jay Kennedy-Harris came to the club last year.

The Demons worked hard at improving the defensive aspect of their game in 2014 and appear to be settled in this area of the ground. There was also an improvement in the midfield which has again been bolstered by the recruiters. Lumumba and Newton have been named on the wings and it will be interesting to see which of them takes his place as the first Demon to line up on the newly named Robbie Flower Wing. It's hard to believe that the Prince was just a toddler when Robbie last graced this ground with his magical presence: Newton wasn't even born.

We all know that Melbourne's 2015 nemesis was its attack where it averaged a little under an appalling 61 points per game, more than 50 points behind the premiers, Hawthorn. This is the area where team selection is indicating significant change. Hogan and Frost are the two new key position players, Garlett the pacy crumber with two partners in crime in Kent and Kennedy-Harris and more outsiders in Watts and Toumpas. The overall picture is an almost complete transition from the one-paced predictability of last year's forward line which was blamed for the team's penchant for slow sideways movement into attack. With these players up forward, there is less reason for the players further downfield not to show the enterprise necessary to take the game on when the opportunities present.

This is of course, placing great responsibility on the inexperienced shoulders of Frost and Hogan but these two have already shown glimpses of their physical attributes as athletes. Hogan makes his long-awaited debut, delayed by nearly a year because of injury interruptions but he has already shown that he has the strength, endurance and skills to make the wait worthwhile. Frost has pace to burn and I expect his combination with the three crumbing amigos will make for interesting viewing for Demon fans for a while to come. I'm excited!

What reinforces my view is the fact that there are a few who would once have been considered regulars who missed selection for various reasons. If it's true that the strength of a team is measured by its depth then this is indicative of a great leap forward and suggests we are about to witness a significant improvement in all round skills at Melbourne. I'm even more excited!

But what about the Suns? They're expected to give the finals a shake and, after all, they are the firm favourite to win but I'm going against the grain. They certainly have been gifted with a talented bunch of players but when their lynchpin is one whose shoulder hasn't been tested in the field of battle, it's a worry. He might be superhuman and he will probably touch the ball thirty times but if the Demons stick to the task and put the right amount of pressure on the man, they can nullify his influence and knock the favourites off the wall.

Melbourne by 10 points.

[Deespicable 2,886]

Interesting to see we have gone small and fast - obviously we decided that Gold Coast pace would hurt us big time if we went our normal 22.

The decision to leave out three very honest footballers - Grimes, Bail and Matt Jones - was a big shock to me, but shows that Roosy really doesn't want to risk being carved up on rebounds by poor turnovers that this trio tend to produce a little more regularly than others.

We have also picked an incredibly young side - a bit of a rarety under Roos. Perhaps he just felt that the Suns youth meant that we could put our youngsters in the hot seat as well.

The keys to the game that I see are as follows:

1) We have to at least match their clearance unit of Prestia, Swallow, Rischitelli, Hallahan and Ablett when he doesn't play forward. Win the contested ball and they will be starved of opportunities because we now play the Hawthorn prototype possession style - but without the same class yet.

2) Once we get possession, we have to minimise our turnovers because they have pace to burn - the K man, Harbrow, Martin, Bennell, Saad, Sexton. When we play our triangle chip game out of defence, then we can't miss our targets (or at least not often).

3) One of Hogan, Frost or Watts has to get on top and provide a reliable target up forward for us. The Suns backline is experienced, but short. Thompson will play on Frost (I suspect) and May will take Hogan, but that probably means Malceski or the K man gets Watts or Vandenburg and we have to exploit whoever gets Malceski in the air.

4) Gorringe is a bit of a weak link for the Suns at moment and with Lynch suspended and Nicholls omitted they are hoping he thrives. Dunn must keep Gorringe quiet when he's up forward and not allow his confidence to build and Frosty should be able to match it with Gorringe when Smith/Jamar rest.

5) Ablett and Bennell are the two danger men. I assume Ablett will play out of goalsquare which is why I think Garland will have to pick him up, but Howe is the other one who can match him for pace and in air. Salem or Jetta will need to play on Bennell which is a huge ask but if they contain him I suspect we win because I reckon T Mac can handle Day and Howe or Garland should cope with Shaw. The problem for either Jetta/Salem is that one of them is going to get dizzy constantly swapping match-ups on Miller/Hallahan/Saad/Garlett.

I know the tipsters didn't go for us, but I am pretty confident we will win this one. The Suns still haven't embraced a new style under Eade and we have a clear system.

It will take the brilliance of Ablett or Bennell or our own lack of confidence to stop us winning IMO.