Is 0 and 11 at the Bye so surprising?

[RalphiusMaximus 6,088]

I can see four wins here. I really hope that we step up a little more than I expect and pinch a couple more, but on what I've seen so far I give us Brisbane, Richmond, Bullogs and Essendon. I'd like to say we can take the swans, but I think they'll just be hitting their stride by then. The Saints aren't going to slide anywhere near as much as people are saying, so I can't see us toppling them. I think there are a couple of smokies in there. While I don't like us against the Swans, we might knock them over. Carlton could turn into something of a grudge match if we play up the"bruise-free" angle, but ti think they have too much quality on the park for us atm.

Obviously things can change in a heartbeat if key players go down in any of these sides, so it's all speculative right now.

Looking back at that, I can still see the logic.

I've never rated the bombers that highly, and I still think they're going to fall off by year's end. We seem to have had the wood on them in recent years, but I think they'll have us this time given how the season is going.

Bulldogs were always going to slide, and it's only going to get worse for them. They are being carried by their oldest players, and they are all around the 30 mark, so as they move on it's all downhill. Sadly, those few senior players always seem to bob up and ruin things for us.

Richmond I was never certain of. I was really basing this on the fact that while they have an elite midfield, they are lacking at either end. Of course, Grimes has improved out of sight this year to give them a solid-looking defence, but their forward setup suffers when JR isn't playing well, and there is a reasonable expectation that Frawley will hold him (Which he didn't). I rated this about 60-40 in our favour on the basis that our talls should be more damaging than their smalls.

Brisbane is the only game on that list that I had as 100%. Obviously, the weeks leading up to the game did us no favours, and Brisbane played the best game of their season that week, most likely expecting us to come out breathing fire and shaking the earth in our desperation to put on a good show for Jim. Nobody really thought about the negative impact it would have on our players, but we probably should have.

Looking back on this, I was probably a bit optimistic. Calling Richmond and the Bulldogs a certainty was over the top, and the bombers have improved beyond my wildest imaginings. Given the way the season has progressed, the only loss I'm really disappointed in is round 1, but there are massive extenuating circumstances around that one.