Making the 8

[Bhima 0]

In recent posts I have attempted to explain why the Demons will struggle against many of the more experienced sides considering they are lacking midfield guns and key forwards, and that basically we'll just have to be patient for another couple of years til our younger players develop.

That approach has left me feeling a little unenthusiastic about the season and I've decided I would like to be more optimistic. I have since been thinking that while we won't be threatening for the flag for a few more years, we can make the 8 this year and do a bit of damage, and I have identified eight players who can make the difference.

There is plenty of talk about a core groups of players needing 70+ games to reach a degree of consistency that is required for consistent success at the team level. I have changed this criteria a little and had a look at the players we have recruited between 2004-2007. These players are at a minimum in their fourth year of professional footy and will have built up most of the strength, skills and endurance required at the elite level. Players obviously develop at different stages, but I think that from the fourth year onwards you can begin to see rapid improvement in a player.

At the moment, there is a huge amount of pressure on our 'senior players' (drafted prior to 2004 - let's call them baby boomers), that is, when they don't play at their best the Dees struggle. There are also huge expectations on our draftees between 2008-2010 (gen Y), many of whom are not nearly developed enough to play good consistent footy. If the following players in the middle group between 2004-2007 (gen X) make the jump to the next level, they will take the pressure off both the baby boomers and gen Y.

1) Stefan Martin: Martin was drafted in 2007 and is only entering his fourth season of AFL footy. He is a good example of the improvements that come with fitness and strength after a number of preseasons. His continued improvement is vital for the Dees if we are to make the 8 this year. Firstly, he provides a good chop out for Jamar in the ruck, allowing Russian to spend more time forward, giving the Dees a legitimate tall marking option that we so sorely need. To highlight the importance of marks inside 50, up until round 16 last year, 4 of the 5 games the Demons won also saw them win the 'marks inside 50' count. Of the top five teams last year, four of them lead the marks inside 50 count. Brad Green was 12th in the comp for marks inside 50 last year, and he is 186cm. This year, teams at the top of the ladder are loading their forward lines with marking talls.

The next step for Stef is for him to start taking marks himself in the forward 50. Jamar is there 25% of the time. If Martin can become a marking threat is takes the pressure off Watts, Jurrah, Dunn and Green, and provide opportunities for Bennell, Davey, Maric to crumb goals or lock the ball in the forward 50. He is making improvements, but if he starts taking grabs in the 50 it will make a huge difference.

2) Petterd 2006)/Dunn (2004)/Bate (2004): One of these three needs to step up and consistently kick goals. It is not a coincidence that Melbourne's good early form last year occured when Ricky Petterd starting kicking bags of goals. Lynden Dunn's excellent forms in the second half of 2010 was significant in a few wins and very competitive showings against teams that finished higher on the ladder. I include Bate because he is still in the age bracket that players make big jumps in form (although I don't hold out much hope).

The importance of one of these two players becoming consistent contributors is that it takes pressure off Green to kick bags (and he is struggling with the pressure of captaincy), it also forces the opposition to take better defenders off our younger players. One of these players is capable of taking a big step in 2011.

3) Morton (2007): Cale has finally put on some weight, and his kicking looks better this year. His game on the weekend, albiet against a second rate side, was encouraging. If Morton can improve we have a 194cm running machine, good mark, 60m kick with the ability to kick multiple goals. I can remember when Andrew Embley started kicking goals on the wing and went on to win a Norm Smith. Morton may still take another couple of years, but big improvements are possible soon.

4) Wonnaemirri (2007); Maric (2007); We have seen Maric make a huge leap in fitness over the preseason, yet unfortunately he has not backed this up a the senior level since round 1. If he can translate that form to the senior side consistently it will make us a better side. Wonna on the other hand has a had a disrupted pre-season and many prior injuries, but his tackling is so important and I rate his kicking very highly. He showed that he can make an impact in the midfield at Casey this year. A fit Wonnaemirri gives us not only forward pressure and kicking accuracy, he could also give us more strength at the clearances which we dearly need.

5) Jones (2005): Brent Moloney is leading all players in the comp for clearances, averaging 8.25 per game. Without him we are in trouble, as although Trengove and Gysberts are talented in this area, they do not have the body size to compete against the gun midfields in the comp. Jonesy starred in the centre in the TAC grand final (38 possessions and numerous clearances). He has struggled at the senior level to win clearances (2.5 per game in 2010). He now has the hips to stand up in the tackle and break tackles, and his kicking is improving. He is showing some postive signs atm and if he could just start getting a few more clearances and gain more confidence with his kicking, he could become a damaging player that will punish the opposition if left unattended, or attract attention, freeing up younger players.

Simply put, the Gen X players are in a reasonable position in their careers to make big improvements during season 2011. It will take the pressure off both the senior and junior players, and will go a long way to seeing us make the 8.

Taking Essendon as an example, the following players were drafted between 2004-2007

2007: Hooker, Myers, Bellchambers, Pears

2006: Jetta, Davey, Reimers

2005: Ryder, Dempsey, Lonergan, Hocking

2004: Monfried, Slattery

This season we have seen some huge improvements in these players. I will be watching the aforementioned Demons players closely this year, and if the Dees can get something similar to happen as has happened at Bomberland we can make it to September and potentially do some damage.

Cheers

Edited April 19, 2011 by Bhima

[Striker475 696]

Interesting take. I agree with the first point wholeheartedly and Stef is starting to show that.

Of the group in the second point...

- Petterd has still played very little football, with the shoulder issue. I think that he'll be more likely to be a goalkicker long-term, but short term he's not as likely.

- Dunn I'm still not sold on. Yes there's the 'defensive forward' thing but I've never liked him as a player, don't think he offers much.

- Bate is superbly hot-and-cold. I don't think he's long-term, especially once a Watts or Cook become superb.

Cale is coming on. Once again though, he does have injury troubles which will slow him down. But he's showing signs.

Wonna is proving himself to be superb paired with Jurrah. Maric I'm still unsure of.

Jones.....I really don't know. He's got grit, he's willing to fight at the contest like few others. But I just don't know if he has the ball skills to truly be a threat.

[Webber 10,550]

In recent posts I have attempted to explain why the Demons will struggle against many of the more experienced sides considering they are lacking midfield guns and key forwards, and that basically we'll just have to be patient for another couple of years til our younger players develop.

That approach has left me feeling a little unenthusiastic about the season and I've decided I would like to be more optimistic. I have since been thinking that while we won't be threatening for the flag for a few more years, we can make the 8 this year and do a bit of damage, and I have identified eight players who can make the difference.

There is plenty of talk about a core groups of players needing 70+ games to reach a degree of consistency that is required for consistent success at the team level. I have changed this criteria a little and had a look at the players we have recruited between 2004-2007. These players are at a minimum in their fourth year of professional footy and will have built up most of the strength, skills and endurance required at the elite level. Players obviously develop at different stages, but I think that from the fourth year onwards you can begin to see rapid improvement in a player.

At the moment, there is a huge amount of pressure on our 'senior players' (drafted prior to 2004 - let's call them baby boomers), that is, when they don't play at their best the Dees struggle. There are also huge expectations on our draftees between 2008-2010 (gen Y), many of whom are not nearly developed enough to play good consistent footy. If the following players in the middle group between 2004-2007 (gen X) make the jump to the next level, they will take the pressure off both the baby boomers and gen Y.

1) Stefan Martin: Martin was drafted in 2007 and is only entering his fourth season of AFL footy. He is a good example of the improvements that come with fitness and strength after a number of preseasons. His continued improvement is vital for the Dees if we are to make the 8 this year. Firstly, he provides a good chop out for Jamar in the ruck, allowing Russian to spend more time forward, giving the Dees a legitimate tall marking option that we so sorely need. To highlight the importance of marks inside 50, up until round 16 last year, 4 of the 5 games the Demons won also saw them win the 'marks inside 50' count. Of the top five teams last year, four of them lead the marks inside 50 count. Brad Green was 12th in the comp for marks inside 50 last year, and he is 186cm. This year, teams at the top of the ladder are loading their forward lines with marking talls.

The next step for Stef is for him to start taking marks himself in the forward 50. Jamar is there 25% of the time. If Martin can become a marking threat is takes the pressure off Watts, Jurrah, Dunn and Green, and provide opportunities for Bennell, Davey, Maric to crumb goals or lock the ball in the forward 50. He is making improvements, but if he starts taking grabs in the 50 it will make a huge difference.

2) Petterd 2006)/Dunn (2004)/Bate (2004): One of these three needs to step up and consistently kick goals. It is not a coincidence that Melbourne's good early form last year occured when Ricky Petterd starting kicking bags of goals. Lynden Dunn's excellent forms in the second half of 2010 was significant in a few wins and very competitive showings against teams that finished higher on the ladder. I include Bate because he is still in the age bracket that players make big jumps in form (although I don't hold out much hope).

The importance of one of these two players becoming consistent contributors is that it takes pressure off Green to kick bags (and he is struggling with the pressure of captaincy), it also forces the opposition to take better defenders off our younger players. One of these players is capable of taking a big step in 2011.

3) Morton (2007): Cale has finally put on some weight, and his kicking looks better this year. His game on the weekend, albiet against a second rate side, was encouraging. If Morton can improve we have a 194cm running machine, good mark, 60m kick with the ability to kick multiple goals. I can remember when Andrew Embley started kicking goals on the wing and went on to win a Norm Smith. Morton may still take another couple of years, but big improvements are possible soon.

4) Wonnaemirri (2007); Maric (2007); We have seen Maric make a huge leap in fitness over the preseason, yet unfortunately he has not backed this up a the senior level since round 1. If he can translate that form to the senior side consistently it will make us a better side. Wonna on the other hand has a had a disrupted pre-season and many prior injuries, but his tackling is so important and I rate his kicking very highly. He showed that he can make an impact in the midfield at Casey this year. A fit Wonnaemirri gives us not only forward pressure and kicking accuracy, he could also give us more strength at the clearances which we dearly need.

5) Jones (2005): Brent Moloney is leading all players in the comp for clearances, averaging 8.25 per game. Without him we are in trouble, as although Trengove and Gysberts are talented in this area, they do not have the body size to compete against the gun midfields in the comp. Jonesy starred in the centre in the TAC grand final (38 possessions and numerous clearances). He has struggled at the senior level to win clearances (2.5 per game in 2010). He now has the hips to stand up in the tackle and break tackles, and his kicking is improving. He is showing some postive signs atm and if he could just start getting a few more clearances and gain more confidence with his kicking, he could become a damaging player that will punish the opposition if left unattended, or attract attention, freeing up younger players.

Simply put, the Gen X players are in a reasonable position in their careers to make big improvements during season 2011. It will take the pressure off both the senior and junior players, and will go a long way to seeing us make the 8.

Taking Essendon as an example, the following players were drafted between 2004-2007

2007: Hooker, Myers, Bellchambers, Pears

2006: Jetta, Davey, Reimers

2005: Ryder, Dempsey, Lonergan, Hocking

2004: Monfried, Slattery

This season we have seen some huge improvements in these players. I will be watching the aforementioned Demons players closely this year, and if the Dees can get something similar to happen as has happened at Bomberland we can make it to September and potentially do some damage.

Cheers

Nice post Bhima. I agree wholeheartedly about the 23 to 27 year olds. This is the prime improvement period, and of course the best of them will sustain that toward 30,31 years old (injury permitting). The game is so unrelentingly demanding from both a physical perspective and in respect to consistent mental application, that it is remarkably rare to find players who stand up consistently from the moment they step foot on the AFL ground, avoid the second year blues, and become basically indispensable within 30 games.....Joel Selwood, Cyril Rioli....

Having seen Stefan Martin show all the attributes of a quality player and athlete from his first year where he was a stalwart of the backline, I started to have doubts about the wisdom of his reinvention over the past 2 seasons. This season so far shows the level of foresight and patience the coaching brains must have, because undoubtedly the reinvention is working. I have little doubt at all that he will convert fully and become a marking gun in the forward line as well.

Nathan Jones is an interesting case, because he has been a first choice player since he donned his redlegs. The tendency is to therefore think he is older or more 'mature' than he is. Yes, he has played a lot of games, but he is only just entering his prime window now, and to me it is clear he will continue to improve. And he is great club talisman.

Ricky Petterd is the perfect example because he has played too few games due to injury, and is just finding his versatility...again, he will improve. Lynden Dunn's window is opening wider also, and lets hope he really jumps through it. Matthew Bate.....unsure. He is unable to compete in the air, and I instinctively feel this may be a career problem.

Austin Wonaeamirri, see Ricky Petterd....just needs games.

Cale Morton is also interesting. The coaches obviously think he is a vital and ongoing part of our improvement....there is no other explanation for using him in the Brisbane game with no match fitness. Whilst that didn't work, and I felt he was unfairly thrown to the Lions (oops), he is a quick study, and will show us some mercurial footy this season I'm sure. I wonder however about his essential potential. He is a light-bodied receiver, and must develop his physicality (and I'm not just talking about his physique)in order to develop his versatility.

As an overarching view, what clubs are after now is players to mould over a 4 or 5 year period into 'all-ground' players. Height determines their best 'position' more than any other physical attribute, but essentially every club wants a team full of Brendon Goddards, with a couple of 200cm lumps thrown in. When I look at the MFC approach over the Dean Bailey period, this seems like their prime purpose. And we will see some of the results this year. Over the next few years, and as a consequence, I feel sure the team will become a 'unit', develop an identity in its culture, playing style, and game plan (I hate that term). The germ of this will be, as you say, the maturing middle agers.

[Brayshaws' Helmet 143]

really good read again bhima, when you talk i listen thats for sure. I'd try to contribute something but am flat out before the long weekend... apparently not enough to read demonland though...