Riders on the Storm

[beelzebub 23,313]

I'll preface this by suggesting this as a thread is about any particular person or club but of the clubs and how they see the potential mothballing of conventional drafts as either an opportunity or a storm to be ridden out.

Im placing it (thread) in draft and trade as the change in the landscape of drafting will affect the potential to compensate in the short term.

Obviously some of the predisposition towards looming drafts must be annexed to the relative ranking on the ladder of any given team. But this then too must be garnished by how that team is placed even now and before the draft or indeed the conclusion of this week's trade.

We at Melbourne I would proffer see this draft and trade week as a giant opportunity the likes of which we havent and are unlikely to see repeated for a long long time. Our own performance of recent years has contrinuted to the prize of 1 & 2. Its debatable as to whther the AFL will allow any continuance of this 'prize' in its current form to persist after the moratorium of the "loaded" drafts so we may well be the last recipients of this icing & cake combo. We have in all likelyhood two more picks under 20 to come as well. We are finishing off a major rebuild.. we arent in all probability going to be placed or primed sufficient to tackle serious finals activity for 3-4 years. I would say however we are looking at this week and the coming months with great expectations..we see it as a positive.

I dont know that all clubs will see it this way. Not all are blessed with as many draft picks . Some are double troubled by not having bult up much in the way of stocks in the last few years to enable them to weather out the next 5. Richmond comes to mind here. In hindsight they have trade poorly and had a couple of misfires in recent drafts. Wheels have fallen off their wagon and the clouds are dark. I would want to be a Toige.

Fremantle and North are curiosities here. North seemingly at the birth of some form of rennaisance strike me as much smoke without fire. Recent delistings and movings on suggest they will be underpowered unless they sure-shoot at this coming draft. They do, like the Dees, have some kids in waiting but their star quality is waning. If we expect something in 3-4 I would think liek richmond they are at least 5-6 away. Fremantle is like the tide, one moment high the next you struggle to see water let alone waves. They seem to lack depth and despite having a number of very good players coherency and continued form stability ( of any note) . The coach is as much an enigma as his team, they must surely be looking to the skies and praying for some blue.

A handful of teams must feel they are well situated to make it though the next years either seemingly in tact and capable of sustained eight activity of requiring only a top up and tinkering to maintain this. Geelong, St Kilda, Dogs and Adelaide to me fit this scenario. I think they will just take the ensuing years as they come before needing a major overhaul. They would see no storm...just a bit of rain.

There a couple of teams who for mine are a little too optimistic about where their lists really are. Collinwood and Carlton. In any ones book they would be about 3/4 of the way there but reality suggests they are both shy oof 2 good KPP's and both might be about to lose one. Both teams are caught somewhat in no mans land going forward and might find themselves subject to some turbulence.

Both will find the coming times a lot more inclement than they suspect. Their club-egos may preveting them from accepting that they arent as cemented in the 8 as they consider.

Quite succintly Port is going to suffer hypotherrmia if it doesnt address its needs with some judicious drafting. I think it knows it and this is why it needs the best deal form Hawthorn of whomever. They too are looking aprehensively towards the skies.

Im inclined to lump the likes of Essendon, Sydney , Brisbane and Hawthorn into a shared outlook. All have the ability to climb if only steadily over the next few and with inpsired drafting/trading over the next few ought to be able to make a decent fist whilst GC and WS suck the life out of the talent pool. Syd is probably the poorest placed in this lot but they have a knack of remaining bouyant. I think this will continue even if the sea gets beyond choppy.

Teams looking to finals in the next 2-3 may see the coming storm as just an annoyance, teams looking to rebuild must be concerned as opportunities will be thin on the ground unless they have already made provisions. Teams floating around the middle must be crossing their collective fingers..

thast my view on this...whats yours

[Akum 2,660]

Very thought-provoking B59.

The interesting thing is that some clubs are laying more emphasis on trading rather than drafting - Carlton the main example, but also Hawthorn, Swans, perhaps Collingwood - because they think they need someone for the next few years rather than 4-5 years out, and they'll trade away draft picks for targeted players.

While clubs like us, Freo & Port are perhaps more interested in trading away players for more draft picks, especially early draft picks, because picking up players who will deliver over the next 2-3 years only isn't a lot of use to us.

With more active trading this year, there seems to be more of a split between drafters & traders. As opposed to last year where nobody was a trader, everyone was a drafter, for obvious reasons. This might not hold for every club, but it seems to be much more of a feature this year.

And the Dees are positioned beautifully to pick up the cream of the draft. I doubt we'll be trading for players, we're more likely to trade away another player or two.

[beelzebub 23,313]

Yes...definitely two basic camps, i agree Akum, the dafters and the traders. I wonder though if some clubs are well aware of essentially the nature of reality of their positions as opposed to their interpretation of it. Some clubs may well look back at this year and wish they'd been doing the other

Its a bit like houses ... you can be building or just renovating... sometimes its easier to rebuild than to keep augmenting... its sometimes quicker, cheaper and results in a better job

[Demon Tragic 0]

I think you'll find a club's willingness to trade players for picks, or in this case picks for players has a direct correlation with the perceived depth and quality of the draft. Last year there were still some goods picks available in the first and second rounds, so clubs were far less willing to trade these picks. This year the preception is that you won't get much from about 25 onwards, therefore clubs are far more willing to trade these picks in exchange for a proven player. Hopefully for us these clubs have made a bad judgement call, whilst we continue to grow with our 'develop through youth' policy.