Ok, so you can waste a week doing this but I have a quick look at the ladder predictor on the AFL site here: Ladder Predictor.
I thought it would be a case of scrounging 12 wins and making sure my September was free, however, it looks like GWS, Syd, Geel, NM, Haw, Adel, WCE, and WB may make it difficult to make finals unless we win 3 of our 7 games against the above 8 teams.
I have WB, Adel, and Haw at the G as must wins to make September.
That and winning all those 'easy games' like the Lions and GC at the G, Fre and PA in NT, PA in Adel, and the Saints at Shittihad.
Essentially, if we lose to WB this week we have to 'sweep' the Hawks, or beat Sydney at the SCG, or WCE in Perth, or win again down at Mordor.
So unless one of those 8 teams collapses like Essendon during the 'Pep-tides Are Turning' years - we face a degree of error this young team will struggle to work with.
PS. I have created an entirely plausible season in the predictor where we win 14 games and still finish 9th. A game out, not even simple percentage...