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In the National drafts from 2000 - 2009, there were "roughly" 14 A or B+ players chosen from the top 5 picks in all of those drafts. A total of 36 players can be graded below that level to varying degrees. Many of those top 5 picks were complete busts or near busts (especially when considering expectations) At Melbourne, we've had 7 picks in the top 5 in the drafts from 2003 until 2012. So far, not one of our picks has turned out to be an 'A' grader and it's not looking good that any of those 7 will ever be an A grader. We traded our pick 2 last year and we also traded our pick 3 in 2012 in the Hogan deal. In essence, Hogan could be counted as the 8th top 5 pick in that 10 year period. Bad luck or bad recruiting? People may say that it's impossible to get so many picks so wrong but it's not impossible. The odds aren't great that any given club will unearth an A or B+ player with a top 5 pick unless they have at least 3 chances at it. Or, looked at in percentage terms, a top 5 pick only has a 25% chance of becoming at least a B+ player if we use the 10 year sample size as a guide. For what it's worth, here are my 14 A or B+ players from those 10 drafts ... that means of course that 36 top 5 picks have not or did not get to at least B+ level (the bad news) Roughead, Hodge, Franklin, Judd, Ball, Cotchin, Boak, Murphy, Pendlebury, Deledio, Griffen, Cooney, Goddard, Nick Riewoldt Anyway, see for yourself ... 2000 draft 2001 draft 2002 draft 2003 draft 2004 draft 2005 draft 2006 draft 2007 draft 2008 draft 2009 draft Our 'luck' might have swung around in more recent times ... Tyson (a former top 3 pick), Brayshaw, Petracca & Oliver all look to have bright futures ... also, it could be argued that Hogan & Viney fall into the top 5 pick category. And Watts is much improved as well. So, the same argument still applies ... Bad luck or bad recruiting?