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Hi all, just purchased the 2013 Prospectus and delved into their preview of our upcoming year. Fasinating stuff an a great read. I thought I'd post up the preview of us on here for those of you that haven't got a copy. Should bring forth some good discussion and formula based approach to reviewing and preview. Firstly let me say I'll just be 2013 list assement tonight, and will update over the next few days with the player previews/reviews. 2013 list:Defenders 12th Midfield/Rucks 16th Forwards: 13th List quality: 13th AFL LIST RATINGS THROUGH QUALITY 1 Hawthorn 2 West Coast Eagles 3 Sydney 4 Fremantle 5 Collingwood 6 Adelaide 7 Geelong 8 Essendon 9 Carlton 10 Richmond 11 North Melbourne 12 St. Kilda 13 MELBOURNE 14 Brisbane Lions 15 Western Bulldogs 16 Gold Coast 17 Port Adelaide 18 GWS 18 The Numbers Game - Game Styles Melbourne had the third highest contested possession rate in the competition, received the second most-pressure and had the fourth highest secondary stoppage rate. With the ball in hand the Demons played on more than any other team and kicked long the second-most. Unsurprisingly, Neeld brought Collingwood's ball movement patterns with him, playing the corridor the second least and the boundary the second-most in the competition. Congestion #3 Cont. Poss. Rate #2 Pressure Recieved #5 Stoppages #4 Second Stoppage Rate Ball use #2 Kick Long % #1 Mark Play On % #18 Kick to Lead % (Fwd Half) #17 Corridor Use #2 Boundary Use Playing Jenga with draft picks One thing Melbourne has taught the footy world is that a heap of early draft picks doesn't guarantee success. You can compare it to a game of Jenga. You pick out the blocks and build it up, and at first you can promise there will be progress. But as the years went by at Melbourne, patience was tested. The tower started to look pretty flimsy. In this team profile three years ago, loaded with the first two picks, we said there could be no more excuses. It's certainly a harsh game. If you don't get it right, down the track a crooked tower will appear for everyone to see. Since Melbourne last played finals football in 2006 it has had 12 top-20 picks. Judging now as a collective they have been an epic failure. The one pick the Demons traded was pick 12 in 2011 for Mitch Clark and at thus early stage that move appears to be a winner. James Frawley earned All-Australian honours in 2010 but he is a key defender and not exactly a match winner. Jack Grimes finally produced a full season in 2012, but again he is a player that does most of his work behind the centre. Jack Watts improved last year when he was moved to defence, but he was drafted as a key forward and in that position he has delivered nothing. In 2009 the Demons drafted Tom Scully and Jack Trengove at picks No.1 and No.2. Scully has moved onto the Giants and Trengove, despite being co-captain, had a year to forget by producing nothing like a pick No.2 of three years ago. The next six names have been serious failures either due to injury or poor form, but mainly form. Cale Morton at pick No.4 in the 2007 National Draft has gone home to West Coast. James Strauss has played just 18 games in four seasons while Sam Blease has managed just 21 in the same time period. To think that Luke Shuey was drafted between those two, ouch! Luke Tapscott hasn't stamped his authority on the competition and again his best work has been behind the centre, while Jordan Gysberts has made the Blues look like geniuses. Melbourne received pick 11 from Carlton for McLean with which it drafted Gysberts. He has been a major disappointment and has since crossed to North Melbourne. And finally Lucas Cook at pick 12 in 2010. He's already on the AFL scrapheap. Usually talls are given more than two years. The common theme amongst the group is there isn't a player who's succeeded in the middle of the ground or forward of centre. All the success stories have been behind the centre- a much easier area to perform in. The Dees have gone down a recycled path this season with Byrnes, Dawes, Pederson, Rodan and Gillies all joining the club, but is it the right thing to do? Only time will tell. Let's hope for Melbourne supporters' sake in five years we are talking about a flag or possible flag and not another rebuild. It's a disappointing bunch and when Mark Neeld aimed to correct the 'crooked tower' last year, it all came tumbling down. Now it's set the Demons back big time, forcing them to re-gather the blocks and start rebuilding something that never really got going. Over Correction Dean Bailey got the sack after winning eight and eight and half games both in 2010 and 2011. Was it an overreaction to one shocking loss against Geelong at Simonds Stadium? Given what the club produced in 2012 it could be argued so. All the team's KPI's fell significantly. The Demons averaged 52 fewer disposals per game then the opposition (ranked 17th), 12 fewer contested possessions (ranked 16th), 41 fewer uncontested possessions (ranked 17th), six fewer clearances (ranked 18th) and 11 fewer inside 50s (ranked 16th). Their stoppage work, in particular, was disastrous. They won first possession 37.9% of the time - 3.5% less than any other team - and a clearance 35.9% of the time - 2.1% lower than any other team. This is a serious issue and gets back to the lack of quality midfielders they have drafted. Neeld would have had a plan in place. We assume he was teaching the players something. But what was it? It's impossible to pick up what it was from the statistics, but one thing that suggests whatever it was it was an over-correction. The strength under Bailey was the ability to move the footy, in particular the attacking midfield zone. Last year this completely fell away. Once inside 50 the Demons scored well, but from all other zones they were poor. They ranked 18th in disposals and 17th in time in possession differential. If you average 52 fewer possessions than the opposition each week than you wont win many games. Positive Thinking Amongst all the doom and gloom there were some positives for the Demons. Nathan Jones was clearly their best player of the season and won the B&F by 20 votes from Jack Grimes. Jones led the club in disposals, contested possessions, handball-receives, clearances, inside 50s, and score assists. He's a beauty Jones, but he shouldn't be a club's best midfielder. While we banged on about all the top-20 draft failures earlier, in the 2010 NAB AFL Draft they found a bargain in Tom McDonald at pick 53. He finished third in the B&F and sixth in the NAB AFL Rising Star. He is a great interceptor and has the potential to be a great play-maker from defence. And finally Jeremy Howe. Again a good pick outside the top-20. He had a bigger highlights reel than Nic Naitanui and Cyril Rioli in 2012 and generally the 'must watch' moments involved sitting on an opponent's head. He is a gem and will prove extremely dangerous as a third tall next to Mitch Clark and Chris Dawes. We're sick of the negatives and so are the supporters. The Demon's need more positive stories in 2013. List Summary Players Listed 44 Primary Listed 40 Rookie Listed 4 Avg Age 23y 178d Avg Games 48.6 Avg Height 187.9 Right Footers 33 Left Footers 7 Age Breakdown Less than 21 - 9 21-24 - 20 25-29 -11 30 and over - 0 Games Played Less than 25 - 19 25-49 - 5 50-99 - 8 100-149 - 6 150-199 - 2 200-299 - 0 300 and over - 0 Player Positions Key Defender 5 General Defender 10 Ruck 5 Midfielder 13 Mid-Forward 2 General Forward 3 Key Forward 2 Drafted Via National Draft 23 Pre-Season Draft 0 Rookie Elevation 5 Father/Son 1 Trades 4 Recycled 3 Uncontract/FA 2 Other 1 Initially Drafted At* Pick 1-10 - 5 Pick 11-20 - 8 Pick 21-30 - 2 Pick 31-50 - 9 Over Pick 50 - 10 *NAB AFL Draft Only Now what you lot have been waiting for - the Ranking from ELITE to Unknown ELITE Jack Grimes AVG 87.1 Above Average Nathan Jones AVG 94.6 Colin Sylvia AVG 86.4 Jack Watts AVG 81.4 Mitchell Clark AVG 81.1 Cameron Pedersen AVG 77.0 James Frawley AVG 75.7 Jeremy Howe AVG 75.5 Joel Macdonald AVG 73.4 Colin Garland AVG 72.2 Average Jack Trengove AVG 78.8 Mark Jamar AVG 78.2 Tom McDonald AVG 73.3 David Rodan AVG 71.8 Jordie McKenzie AVG 70.3 Chris Dawes AVG 67.4 Dan Nicholson AVG 66.2 Aaron Davey AVG 64.9 Lynden Dunn AVG 64.5 Below Average Rohan Bail AVG 65.3 Jake Spencer AVG 63.5 James Sellar AVG 59.2 Tom Gillies AVG 58.3 Sam Blease AVG 54.9 Neville Jetta AVG 54.3 Luke Tapscott AVG 54.0 James Strauss AVG 50.0 Poor Shannon Byrnes AVG 42.0 Unknown Max Gawn AVG 54.9 Jack Fitzpatrick AVG 47.3 Michael Evans AVG 44.9 Josh Tynan AVG 28.0 Jimmy Toumpas Jack Viney Rory Taggert Dean Kent Troy Davis Matt Jones Dean Terlich Dom Barry Rookies James Magner AVG 58.3 Thomas Couch AVG 45.1 Mitchell Clisby Nathan Stark THE PLAYERS Rohan Bail - Midfielder - National '08 Pick 64 - Age: 24 - Ht: 183cm - Wt: 82kg Bail finally established himself at AFL level last year by playing in a career-high 18 matches. He played a defensive forward role for much of the year, playing on the likes of Shannon Hurn and Jarrod Harbrow. Bail recored a poor kick rating and also recorded the worst scoring accuracy of any player to kick at least two goals at the club. He retained possession from only 52% of his kicks which was 10% below the competition average. Dom Barry - Mid- GWS pre-list trade '12 - Age:19 - Ht: 183cm - Wt: 78kg Barry is a left-footed winger whose testing at the 2012 NAB AFL Draft Combine was outstanding. He ranked in the top 10 of the 3km time-trial, repeat sprints and kicking tests, and also recorded the 11th-fastest time in the agility test. He played all five games for the Northern Territory in the 2012 NAB AFL U18 Championships, ranking No.1 at the club in kicks and uncontested possessions, equal No.1 in disposals and inside 50s, second in marks, third in hardball-gets, fourth in contested possessions and equal-sixth in looseball-gets. He also represented North Ballarat in the TAC Cup averaging 13 disposals and three inside 50s per game, but wasn't a massive ball-winner at this level, finishing with more than 20 disposals just once. Sam Blease - Fwd/Mid - National '08 Pick 17 - Age: 22 - Ht: 184cm - Wt: 77kg Blease bounced back after dropped early last season to play in every match from Round 8 onwards, which included 29 disposals, 14 contested possessions and 10 clearances in his return game. He ranked fourth at the club for metres gained but his ball use let him down, recording the worst retention rate of any player at the club. Of his 30 kicks into the forward 50, not one led to a goal, with his retention of 27% the worst in the top 10. He was an elite goal scorer for a midfielder, scoring at least one goal in all but two games to rank No.1 at the Demons for goals and third for scoreboard impact in the time he played. Shannon Byrnes - Fwd - Rookie Elevation 04 - Age: 28 - Ht: 175cm - Wt: 78kg Byrnes crossed to Melbourne as a free agent after playing just nine games with Geelong in the past two seasons. He played all four of his games from Rounds 2-7 last season, starting as the substitute in one match, averaging 10 disposals per game and booting one goal. He was prolific in his 16 VFL games, winning at least 18 disposals in every one, averaging five tackles per game and recording an outstanding 17 tackles in one game outing against North Ballarat. In the VFL, he ranked second for the Cats for inside 50s, fourth in tackles and disposals, and seventh for scoreboard impact. More to follow.