Lucifers Hero

Hird is about to present the Norm Smith medal and the AFL are desperately hoping everyone has forgotten the saga and does not boo him. Dank just put the whole thing front and center. Let the booing begin...

I think some convenient reporting is happening to create headlines and stories. From my reading the sequence has been: circa $300k was reportedly Crows opening offer early in 2017 - probably their 'strict formula' for a 3rd year player. Who knows if it increased during early negotiations. He put off talks to see what the CBA looked like. In the meantime other clubs came in, with WB reportedly set to offer $800-850k. CBA done and clubs were given a $2m sal cap windfall to spread around. I recall reading the Crows then offered $600-$650K. CBA done but now Lever decides to wait till the end of the season. Lever made the AA squad after the Crows' reported offer of $600-$650k. At some stage MFC joined in. The figure I saw reported a few weeks ago in The Age was MFC's offer of$750k+. With the AA gong it makes sense the Crows would revisit their offer. So do the Crows need to pay >$900k Warner says MFC have offered? (btw Warner's doesn't have a good track record for accuracy, headlines are more his thing). Conventional wisdom is that players will stay at a club for less than other offers. I guess it depends how much he wants to get back to Vic. Nonetheless, I doubt the Crows will let him go without another try to keep him. Sorry response is a bit lengthy but thought I would use your question to summarise happenings, as per my interpretation of events and reports.

The deal is not done yet: "...Michael Warner told On the Couch:...“Five years, $900,000 a season,” he revealed to gasps from panel members Jonathan Brown and Jason Dunstall...The Crows will come after the Grand Final pretty hard and I think they’ve got some more money to offer.” TBH, I don't give a lot of credence to anything Warner says/writes. But I wouldn't be surprised if the Crows open their cheque books for Lever. But Lever seems a genuine kid so if he says he is leaving he is leaving. It would be really disappointing if he/his manager have used us as a bargaining chip, as his team mate Tom Lynch did two years ago.

My bad - I have confused the names. Thanks. Jake Kelly is son of Craig Kelly - Collingwood great. For some reason Collingwood didn't take him as a father/son and slipped thru to the Crows as a rookie. I bet they are sorry now. He is proving a real asset to the Crows and will cover the loss of Lever - they even look alike when they play...

They have already trained Jake Kelly to do the job - did fine when Lever was out injured. They got Kelly for zip as a B Rookie - I think he was an elite cricketer and a few clubs were after him. Yes they will miss Lever a little bit but they won't be crying about the trade.

Jay Clark's take on the horse trading for Leve rhttp://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/jake-lever-is-out-of-contract-so-melbourne-has-upper-hand-in-bid-to-land-adelaide-defender/news-story/77de2b236f1a797b08d5fb5016b1abee The deal sounds quite fair: "The deal will be five years at least on about $750,000 a year, instantly making him one of the top three of four paid players at Melbourne, and he’s exactly what Simon Goodwin’s men need to help jump into the top four...But they aren’t parting with two-first round choices without something else coming back and need only look back one year ago when the Crows refused to part with a pair of aces for Carlton’s Bryce Gibbs for some affirmation". He goes on to say that because Lever (unlike Gibbs) is out of contract mfc hold the upper hand and outlines some trade scenarios. On the down side he thinks it could go down to the 11th hour. I had thought both clubs would want it over and done with and move on to other deals. Adelaide have shown they can play hardball. Just hope we hold our nerve even if it does drag out.

An ambitious opening ambit! They selected him @ pick #38 ie late 2nd round/low 3rd round, has played a handful of games in two years and has application issues. Hard to argue he is worth a pick better than around #40. If mfc agree to more than what Freo gave up for him we have rocks in our heads. He is no Hibberd or Melksham to go for a mid/late 20 pick.

Probably just a 'real' rumour ie its true that a club has inquired but doesn't eventuate. There are probably dozens of those made by each club every year - most inquiries go nowhere.

Mentioned as a hypothetical perhaps but where has MFC's interest been noted or reported?

The Age is reporting we are interested in Harley: "Melbourne are believed to have shown interest in Fremantle youngster Harley Balic, who is eyeing a move to a Victorian club after two seasons with the Dockers. The 20-year-old spent extended periods on leave from Fremantle this year as he dealt with personal issues. The Demons are remaining tight-lipped on the matter". Who knows how accurate that is! Demons are saying nothing (and I like that). I don't usually try and imagine trades but if the report is true might we trade Kent for him?

Something has gone terribly wrong with our salary cap management if we need to give up our only silky players to fit in Lever, given we have a $2m windfall (and having Lumumba off our books). Grain of salt needed - make that a kilo!

You misunderstand. I was giving you credit for being on the money.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/adelaide-tells-melbourne-it-wants-two-firstround-draft-picks-for-talented-defender-jake-lever/news-story/dbe7542425f46d6e0852f5b44c034fce From the article: "ADELAIDE ... want two first-round draft picks ...if he seeks a trade back to Victoria". "Some observers, however — and it is safe to say Melbourne will agree — argue that Lever isn’t worth two first-round choices". "Another option ...would be to give up two first round picks and receive a decent pick back, or to give up a first rounder and then swap picks". That is pretty much as @Judd's Granny describes. The article also says that Coll has dropped out of the race. If a trade doesn't involve a third club there is a fair chance it will be done early in the trade period which starts on October 9 (if he decides to come to us). I'm starting to get my hopes up!

If correct, its good to see mfc protecting our 2018 picks (said to be a very good draft vs 2017).

Hope that isn't correct! Especially as earlier this year Lewis was encouraging the young guys to stick together as a team even if it means forfeiting some money along the way. We have quite a few top end players to accommodate: Petracca, Oliver, Gawn, Viney, McD, Hogan who will all be looking for big $$ in the next two years. There will be clubs out there making big offers to those guys even if they don't have elite years. Will be hard to keep the team together if they are all looking for near $1m contracts! And our next tier (Tyson, Brayshaw, Hunt, ANB, Garlett etc) need to be looked after as well.

I didn't mean to say he 'only wants money' more that he may be 'bought' (ie attracted) by the best package - he has said: “It is not just about team success. And it is not just about money. It’s not just about your family. It is a combination of three or four things...“For me, when I make my decision, it is going to be about a whole range of things I need to think about.” So in addition to 'team success', 'money' and 'family' what are the other things. He is touted as a future Crows captain, so lets add 'club captain. He has a guest spot on Adelaide radio so perhaps 'public profile' can be added especially if future career ambitions are media related. And Premiership medal would certainly be on his list. If he wants finals he should stay with Adelaide. If he wants money any number of Vic clubs can give him that. A number of clubs can offer him captaincy (Carlton, Hawks, Pies, StK). Fewer clubs can offer him a public profile. I really hope we get him but I 'm trying not to get my hopes until the deal is done as he wouldn't be the first player in recent years (think Clarke, Tippett, Buddy) to do a list minute about face to a verbal deal, which at best is all mfc have right now.

With Pendlebury earnings potential near the end Collingwood would throw 'Marquis Player' type incentives into the deal. Lever has a spot on an Adelaide radio show - Eddie can offer him that and offer him TV spots as well. They would all be legit 3rd party deals. If young Jake still wants a public profile then that deal would be hard to beat. On a side note, last week I thought we might be outbid by another Vic club. Yesterday @Abe said the Crows were surprised at the $ we offered Lever. If he is coming to us for the big $ then Lever can be 'bought'. North, Coll, StK all have the potential to outbid us with $ to Lever and a trade package to Crows. We are better placed to progress than those clubs so there is every reason for him to chose us. But clearly there are other factors in his decision. I just hope we don't pay significant overs - we aren't a destination club if we have to do that. There is enough noise around to say that Lever is 'playing the trading game' so I'll wait for the announcement with him in a Dees jumper before believing he will be one of us.

Here is an interesting article estimating how much some key players might benefit from the CBA windfall on their contract renewal. http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/show-me-the-money-afl-players-seeking-pay-days-in-2018-20170907-gycjyw.html Summary: TOM LYNCH - $1.3 million BEN BROWN - worth more than $700,000 CHRISTIAN PETRACCA - between $550,000 to $600,000 TOBY GREENE - up to $700,000 SAM DOCHERTY - more than $600,000 PATRICK CRIPPS - $600,000 a year is within reach MAX GAWN - over $700,000 MARCUS BONTEMPELLI - around $800,000 OTHERS TO WATCH: Rory Sloane, Marc Murphy, Cam Guthrie, Lachie Whitfield, Jamie Elliott, Phil Davis, Oscar McDonald, Luke McDonald That suggests a player needs to be a potential match winner/champion to earn over $600,00. It makes me wonder if we on DL sometimes overestimate a targeted player's package. Having said that I'm sure clubs would pay a lot more to lure them away. If we get Lever and if reports of $800,000+ are correct I would imagine Maxy would be rather put out! Lever would become our second highest paid player behind Hogan. Won't be easy keeping all our talent if rumours on Lever's package are correct and if we get him.

Good news! Any idea what the trade might be?

Its a worry that our coaches saw fit to change our fundamental game plan midseason! And supporters want to blame the players! Fundamental game plan change is for the preseason and not when we are in contention for the top half of the 8! The coaches have a lot to answer for in our failed season!

WOW...Melbourne has exited the race...? IF, IF true it could only mean the club has found a bigger fish or Lever's price/trade deal got too high. Will be interesting to see how this pans out.

Crows probably will but I think it is bit of a myth to say that they have to. They can play hard ball like GCS did with O'Meara, forcing Hawkes to sell their 2018 1st pick cheaply to the Saints. Crows have shown they won't just play the game in past deals; they fight for what they want and don't fold lightly. And, Jake may be seduced by the $$$ North might offer...It wouldn't be the first time a player has been diverted to another club: Clarke, Tippett and to a lesser extent Buddy. My initial point was a deal isn't done until its done.

Agreed. Can't see why a player would go there. But my concern is North interest/effort will push up the contract price and/or the Crow's trade request.

North have $2m+ to splash around. Watch them come and trump MFC offer. They are desperate to get an 'in-demand' player. They also have better picks to offer the Crows. Crows have shown they will play hard ball with trades in recent years. Lots of water to go under the bridge still.

Their 'early second round pick' will be around pick 28-30, after AFL compensation picks are issued for FA's and Academy picks get used. Pick 28-30 in a not too deep draft plus a later pick is absolute rubbish!