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Lifelong Demon

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    Optus Stadium

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    Since there wont be many Demons supporters at the game tomorrow, what are the rules on using phones and/or bluetooth speakers to add to the noise that our supporters can make? Could double the noise of the crowd if everyone played something like this - 

     

     

    2018 Indigenous Guernsey

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    1 minute ago, timbo said:

    Broken link (jeez the shop needs a tidy up. Links to Xmas 2017, banner/tiles linking to the wrong categories. Total shambles. )

    That’s why it’s a sneakier peek...

     

    search Google for “melbourne demons 2018 indigeneous guernsey” and you will see it and the link to this page. Looks like they have made the product but forgot to tell Google it’s a secret. 

    • Like 1
    • Haha 1

    Watts he done wrong ?

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    18 hours ago, Hellfish said:

    I've noticed Watts sometimes leads too early for the ball carrier to really set and deliver which then either finds him too close to the kicker, out of position or cut off by defenders who have covered him

    its just as important for the forward to pick and time their leads as it is for the other player to deliver.

    that said there were a lot of stupid decisions made today all over the ground

    Could be an issue of him being such a good kick he gives the ball carrier as much time as he would need to get the kick off, which could be a whole lot quicker than the ball carrier actually can.

    Why we will win on Sunday

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Ingeniokinetikey said:

    What is the algorithm for the 'above the shoulders' bit, not being a smart ar$3, but i just feel that is quantitative method on a qualitative problem?  

    Recent wins, home game, number of goal kickers... Plenty of options to include. 

    Why we will win on Sunday

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, La Dee-vina Comedia said:

    Not sure about the logic of this. It suggests that there is a 63% chance that a team other than Melbourne or Footscray will win a game of football played between Melbourne and Footscray. Ergo, I think there's a flaw in this particular argument. 

    Yeah - 63% of games are being won by teams who are better at attack and defense. Hence the 60/40 split.

    It was poorly worded...

    • Like 1

    Why we will win on Sunday

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    Using the statistics gained from the premiership level attack and defense charts over the last three weeks...

    59% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack and defense than their opposition.

    22% of the time games are won by teams that are better at defense than their opposition but not attack.

    15% of the time games are won by teams that are better at attack than their opposition but not defense.

    4% of the time games are won by teams who are worse at both attack and defense  (Saints v Demons :wacko:).

     

    Leading into the game this week under these statistics, Bulldogs would win 22% of the time, Demons 15%.

    If you compare only teams in similar spreads (one better at one stat than the other) Bulldogs would win 60%, Demons 40%.

     

    Now, my Tipping Spreadsheet had Demons beating Suns by 1 point last week... This week it has Bulldogs beating Demons by 2 points. However, games that have been 4 points or under in my spreadsheet are at about 50% accuracy at the moment... still tweaking the algorithms!

     

    Having said all that I am still tipping the Demons to win this one as I think they are in the right frame of mind, the ground is a different size and softness, things are starting to click and its time to beat a top 8 team!

     

    • Like 3

    Making the 8 not as silly as it sounds

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    North v Bulldogs - Too high. No impact.

    Crows v Dockers - Too high & low; Can't push Demons lower; can stall Crows

    Giants v Hawks - Too high. Can't push Demons lower; can stall Giants

    Tigers v Power - Too low. No impact.

    Cats v Suns - Too high. Can't push Demons lower; can stall Suns

    Lions v Swans - Too high & low. No impact.

    Eagles v Pies - Too low. Can't push Demons lower; can stall Eagles.

    Blues v Essendon - Too low. No impact.

     

     

    If we win, we will sit between 6 and 9. If we lose, we stay 10th and worse case scenario, Port, Pies & Percentage come into play.

    With my tips for the week, I have is getting into the 8 by the end of this round.

     

    • Like 1

    Premiership Predictor

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    3 hours ago, Daily Dose of Demons said:

    Also using the graph Melbourne should beat Hawthorn... :roos: 

    Hawthorns points against average is slightly lower than ours. From memory the vast majority of winners last week were those with the better (lower) points against. 

    And like Choke said, a few more rounds are needed to get some more accurate data. 

    Premiership Predictor

    in Melbourne Demons

    Posted

    I was interested in the Fox Footy premiership predictor that I saw at some point last week, so through together a version on my footy tipping spreadsheet to see if evidence over time can assist in predicting winners! (I'm not a betting man, so this is purely for seeing if you can predict winners from just the ladder and who is at home - last week it gave me 8 winners as I didnt take into account umpires issuing frees to Hawthorn and picked Crows to win by 9)

    For those that havent seen this on Fox Footy - the last 15 premiership winning teams have scored an average higher than 100 and kept their opposition to an average of lower than 86. The teams with yellow borders are currently in the top 8. The black circle is the league average for and against.

    Based on this formula, it is very interesting to see where the Demons are placed at the moment. Before Round 5, we were placed almost exactly where Hawks are now. But after the one win we are now scoring enough to be a premiership winning side, but not keeping our opposition low enough (we are allowing 1 too many goals each week), but we are closer to being in the premiership winning quadrant than any other team.

    Another good win this weekend, while staying strong on defence (Saints are only averaging 83, which keeps them under the magic number) might push us up into that quadrant!

    Now, this doesnt mean our premiership window is open, or we will even make the top 8 - its still early in the season -  but keeping your stats in the top left quadrant is where history says the premiership team comes from and being up there cant hurt your chances.

    Round 5.PNG

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