Hannabal

Three years from Finals is feasible, as is a couple of years in the Finals before realistically having a decent crack at winning. Ergo, a flag is likely to be a minimum of 5 years away, but more likely 6-7. Look at Port. They made a GF last year, but as has subsequently been proven weren't realistically close to winning. I don't want to get there and fall miserably short, we've done that before. Next time we're there we need to be a genuine chance. I liken the 2008 draft for the Dees as the equivalent in importance to the 2001 draft for the Cats. In 2001 they had four picks in the top 25, plus picked up Gary Ablet under F/S. So, in reality, they had 5 of the best 25 picks in the draft that year. Ultimately they ended up with Bartel, Kelly, Ablett, Steve Johnson, and Gardiner. Any list is a work in progress and they already had Chapman and Ling on the list from 99 and of course they continued to tweek it along the way, but 01 goes down as pivotal to the flag they eventually won 6 years later. And it's a similar likely time frame for us. We need to make the most of this draft and if possible trade our way into another first round draft pick. Looking at a realistic scenario and assuming that there are a couple of other teams that have a PP pick prior to the second round of the draft (two of Essendon, WC, or Freo) and also assuming that Richmond and Carlton won't qualify, we're likely to roughly have picks 1, 17, and 20. We may not be able to facilitate another pick around 10 or even 15, but we need to try. Our next likely window of opportunity to win what we all crave is 5-7 years away. This is probably the last uncompromised draft for some time and is considered to be of the highest quality up to at least pick 20. Hard decisions need to be made. Rivers isn't likely to be in our next premiership team, but how good could he be at Sydney, or Brisbane, or even Collingwood. Those sides would genuinely think that they're not far away and all of them could do with a General like Rivers in the backline. I don't think that it's unrealistic to think that they'd look long and hard at Rivers, and they'll have picks somewhere in the 10-15 range. This club hasn't made enough hard decisions in the past. We have to make things happen starting at the draft table this year. I'm sick of more of the same.

You're comparing one of the best inside mids and extractors I've ever seen, a B&F winner, a Downlow Medallist, a Norm Smith Medallist, and 3 time premiership player to Brad Green and Jared Rivers ? I'll box up and send you a dose of perspective.

We had an opportunity to recruit a 17 year old David Wirrpanda and have Kowal go home to WA. I'm not 100% sure of the mechanics, but some reading will remember. Wirrpanda was the hottest junior prospect at the time. Kowal decided he wanted to stay. He should have been forced to go.

I don't think so. (How bout...)

Jamar must be the luckiest footballer in history. Either that or he has photos. Even if he is contracted for next year I'd pay him out and delist him.

So give up Green and pick 18-20 for pick 12 ? Yeah, that makes sense.

I don't want to "wield the axe", I want another top 15 pick. It's imperative for a club that is no where near top 4 to orchestrate one in this draft. I want a club with the culture to be able to make a tough decision that improves the playing list and future chances of premiership success, not a club that doesn't trade Darren Kowal because he gets up at an B&F night and says that he loves the club and has no intention of going back to WA. He should've been sent packing. I agree that there are degrees and fine lines when it comes to morale, loyalty, etc, but if ever the playing group was going to accept tough decisions it's on the back of a disastrous milestone year and with a new coach who rightfully will be making decisons with the longterm success of this club in mind.

You're delusional.

The facts are you don't know what we'd get, nor do I. It is a more difficult market than when S. Thompson, Jolly, Woewodin, Moloney, Hay, N. Thompson, Johnstone, Tarrant, etc gained top 20 picks, but Rivers is still young and could be a good fit for a club on the precipice. The point I've been making is that if we could achieve a 10-15 pick, subject to our recruiters thoughts on what is expected to be a bumper crop, I'd 'explore' a trade.

Correct, and it's why Rivers is only an outside chance of a decent pick, but a chance worth exploring. One club may just see him rounding out their bid for a flag in 09. And he's still young, so it's not a pipedream.

I'm not so sure about that. As the year moves forward you'll hear more and more how highly rated this year's top 20 is. Players like McKernan, Watts, Heyne, and Sidebotom, to name a few will be around the 8-10 mark. I saw McKernan in the flesh recently and would take him in a heartbeat over Rivers. Rivers reputation on these Boards doesn't match his output, injuries not withstanding. It's not unusual for Melbourne supporters to overrate their own. Good player, but hardly indispensible, especially when our window has closed and we need to take advantage of this draft.

Rivers is hardly "all of our experience". You're probably right and he's most likely "going nowhere", but if you want more of the same sit on your hands and do nothing. Rivers isn't quick and yes, he hasn't needed to be due to his great reading of the play, but the game is getting more and more athletic which doesn't suit him. Put simply, Rivers is good but he's no star. We need another first round pick. Where's it coming from ? We need stars, we don't have any, and the next draft is one of our last realistic chances to raid the country's pantry of talent. We had 3 picks in the top 21 last year and if we can gain 4 picks in the top 20 this year on the back of a trade and a pp pick before the start of the second round we will have drafted (potentially) 7 of the best 40 players over the last 2 years to form the nucleus of a great young list. In the same period some clubs would have drafted 2 in that same 40 and neither in the top 10. Our future is now and smart decisions need to be made. Some of them may seem hard. They need to be. Note: Morton might be a star. Let's try and surround him with as much talent as we possibly can at this year's draft table.

Does anyone believe that we will win a flag in the next 5 years ? I don't. Realistically, 6-7 years will be our next window due to this rebuild, when Morton, Grimes, Jones, and the next batch of picks will be around 24-26. How old will Rivers be then - 30/31 ? How fast will he be then ? How fast will the game be then ? For pick 10 it's very worthy of consideration depending upon how our recruiters rate this draft. Currently pick 10 means nothing to most supposrters, it's just a number, but if the hype is to be believed, pick 10 should yield a very very good player. Would he even yield pick 10 ? He'd probably go close. We won't rise up the ladder without hard decisions. As for the person saying that Sylvia would yield pick 20, you're dreaming. And I doubt Bell would get you a cold pie.

I completely understand every point of view which leads to the retention of Rivers, and one doesn't need to be Einstein to realise that the club probably won't even entertain the idea, and if we were relatively close to a flag it wouldn't be a consideration, but facts are, we're in serious rebuild mode and a flag isn't on the horizon. We're not going to rangle a pick around 10 without giving up something very good and I doubt that any other player will realistically get such a deal done. I want Morton, Grimes, Maric, Jones, Wonaeamirri, Bate, Cheney, MacNamara, etc, all coming through together with four top 18 picks in this years draft, so that in 5 years time we've a realistic shot at a flag. Short term pain for the greater good. How do we get another decent first round pick ? We need one.

Rivers is a good player, but he's not a true KPP and he doesn't kick goals. For me he's expendable for the right deal, but I understand that many supporters will writhe in anger at such a thought. I'll do anything that's going to improve our list going forward and give us the best prospects of developing a premiership list. And yes Cooney was pick 1. in 03. So ? We didn't have pick one and he's about the only A grader out of that pathetic draft.

Sylvia is a very disappointing pick 3, but as the years go on it's extraordinary how bad a draft 2003 really was. Isn't it just Melbourne's luck that we had two top 5 picks in a terrible draft year. If you look down the list in 03 it is virtually devoid of top notch talent. If Sylvia was pick 48 in that draft we'd have a completely different mindset when rating him. As difficult as it can be, from a list management point of view we now need to judge him purely on his output/merit and try to disregard where he was picked in the draft. Cos right now his draft no. doesn't matter as we move forward. Some may still think he's a dud. Fair enough, but I feel he's better than that, albeit he has limitations. I don't see much point in trading him, because we won't get enough for him. Trade him for pick 38 ? Too risky as there's every liklihood the player at 38 won't be better and could be far worse. There's merit in trading Rivers if we could snare a pick around 10-15. It's being hotly debated on another forum. I can see the pros and cons, but the top 20 in the upcoming draft are supposedly outstanding and Rivers hardly gets on the park and usually doesn't take the oppositions best. He's a very good young player and important to our structure, but we really need to orchestrate another early draft pick and that will only happen by giving up something good. I'd seriously consider Rivers in this scenario. We have to plunder the best talent possible in this draft. It's never been more crucial.

Unfortunately I only see Sandy 3-4 times a year. There are better informed posters than me on Martin. He's very competitive, takes a nice mark, seems agile for his size, and is improving his disposal even though he looks ungainly. He's raw, but definitely an interesting prospect. We've now got a very young side and I think we need some of Dutchy's experience and competitiveness against the Pies. And he's done well on Rocca previously. He has well known limitations but I'll always remember him fondly as at least he had a red hot crack. I can't say that about too many.

Cj may well come in, but I've drawn a line through him permanently. And as much as I'd love to drop Bell as I don't think he's good enough at AFL level I suspect he'll be saved my the number of Collingwood mid size forwards.

Collingwood have a plethora of dangerous small forwards, so Whelan comes in if fit. Holland must come in and play on his [censored] Rocca. I want him down in defence for 2 reasons, first he has a good record on Rocca and secondly without Neitz or Robertson our forward line would be too predictable with big Dutchy, although he may find his way down there at some point in the game. Also, with Warnock picking up Cloke I'd rejig the forward line and give Garland a crack. We can see if he's learnt anything from playing on Buddy and Riewoldt in consecutive weeks. With Holland on Rocca there's the opportunity to be a little unpredictable up forward. Morton has too much class to be wearing stripes. Obviously Davey if fit. In: Holland, Davey, Morton, Whelan Out: Robertson, Dunn, Buckley, Yze Apologies to Valenti who I want to see back in sooner rather than later.

Interestingly, Valenti has the best footy brain of that lot. I'll watch his development with interest.

I'm only reporting the comments of those that watch him first hand, but I'm sure he'll be a terrific little player.

What does the Melbourne Football Club really need ? They need a star. They need a marquee player that drags people through the gates. How many members do Hawthorn have on the back of Franklin ? My Nephew inexplicably still barracks for North, despite a rabid Father who's a Dee, because of Wayne Carey. How important are players like Dale Thomas to Collingwood and their merchandising sales ? Already the best buzz I get from going to see Melbourne is the expectation of how Wonaeamirri, or Morton might go. Not much else gets me excited. This is why the MFC must recruit Naitanui if they receive pick one in the upcoming draft. Sure there's a risk, but we don't have much choice. This guy has marketing appeal with a capital M. As I stated in another thread, Scott Clayton who's widely regarded as the best 2 or 3 recruiters going around stated that people won't believe how much money they'll pay to watch him play. Wayne Hughes who took Kruezer at one last year said he would've taken Naitanui if he was available. I've seen only brief footage of him, but the upside to his football is extraordinary. I suspect that there won't be much middle ground with Naita. He'll either be a once in a generation freak, or a complete disaster. I think we have to go for broke.

There's no doubt that there's a risk factor with Naitanui, but let's not forget he's 17 and still learning the game. Go to the West Coast Board on BF and you'll get views on both Rich and Naita. Most were very disappointed with Rich. He's got a deadly left foot, but his critics say that he doesn't work hard enough or get enough possessions for an elite mid. That said, I'm sure he'll be a terrific AFL footballer. Also, the average AFL match goes for around 120 minutes, but these U18 Champs go for 80 minutes - 20 minutes a quarter, which obviously impacts the amount of possessions. I'll reserve judgement until I see Naita play in the flesh, but anyone who is 198cm's, fast, wins his own clearances at the stoppages as well as most good mids, tackles like a panther, can leap small buildings, and has recruiters like Scott Clayton saying "people won't believe how much money they'll spend to go and watch this kid play" has my immediate attention. The upside is enourmous.

Naitanui

Most premiership teams don't have players who butcher the ball like Barty. Of course there are always exceptions but when I talk of a player not being good enough to be in a premiership side most people know what I mean. I view every player in this light. Are they likely to be of the quality to be in a 22 that's capable of winning a flag ? Would he play in Geelong's team ? I like Bartram, because he has a crack, and he's not a bad tagger, but I doubt he's good enough to help take this club to where we all want to go. I doubt he has the class. And if it doesn't make sense to you ? Diddums.