binman

59 minutes ago, Oxdee said:

Which forwards does hawthorn have?

Unintentionally ironic thread title.

The pendulum will perhaps swing back, but as it stands key forwards have never been less a factor.

Look at the contenders last year - only the crows fielded more than one genuine gun key forward (Thilthorpe, Fogarty and at a stretch Walker).

And the crows, despite finishing top of the ladder - checks notes - got knocked out of the finals in straight sets.

The premiers had two key forwards, but Hipwood had little impact all year and Morris, whilst he had a great season and could become an A grader, he's not there yet.

The cats had Neale, who is certainly no gun, and Cameron, who in any case plays a hybrid role.

The pies had McStay and Miochek as key forwards - solid players both but no superstars.

Just look at this year's draft for evidence of the waning importance of key forwards.

Of the 25 first round picks there was just one genuine key forward selected - Aidan Schubert who the Hawks selected at 23.

With Miochek and JVR we're fine for key forwards.

And we have Luker lurking in the wings and heath who at some stage might play the Jackson forward second ruck role, as could AJ if he can elevate his game (big if I have to say).

The irony in the title is that the issue hasn't been key forwards it's been how we have delivered the ball to those forwards - we've often had no way forward.

King has traded out two players who can't hit targets inside 50 and our first two picks were a fella who can change angles and hit targets from defence and a small/medium forward with good foot skillls who can play close to goal or at half forward where he can deliver it inside 50 (and also free up koz, one of our best field kicks when he's not trying to be too cute, to play more mid time and therefore have more opportunities to be kicking inside 50).

Instructive that with our third pick we went with another small forward.

To me that also points to the waning influence of key forwards in footy atm (and gives us a clue on the method King wants us to implement - move it fast, get it inside 50 quickly, ideally hit up a leading target, but if not get it to ground at let the medium and smalls go to work).

Contested marks inside 50 are a complete bonus now, as to a lesser extent are goals - the number one KPI for key forwards ATM is ensuring the oppo defenders, in particular their intercept markers, don't mark the footy and the ball is brought to ground.

That doesn't take quite the same skillset as in the heyday of 100 goals a year key forwards.

What's needed is small and medium forwards and mids who can push forward to take marks inside 50 in space and/or kick goals.

Brisbane is the exemplar of that shift with their huge raft of such players.

4 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

No just the highlights, with regard to the draft age personally would like to see it raised to 20 TBH. I see a lot of boys struggle in their draft year with school and expectation. Don't get me started on managers/agents either filling their heads with nonsense and bad advice. For boys who are born in the second half of the year the can be lucky to play half a dozen games of colts footy in their draft year if they are tied to a PSA school.

I'd like to see players drafted at an age where their bodies are almost fully developed and they have been exposed over a period of time playing against bigger bodies. Off field I believe they would also have an apprenticeship of degree/diploma behind them and some security should the AFL dream not work out.

But that's just my personal opinion

Totes agree - for all the reasons you note. I said 19 because of that gap issue but I'd be happy with 20.

The other things i's add is the current system is too weighted to players coming up thru the elite junior systems, a problem that has bedeviled soccer in Australia (ie players not on that pathway don't make it and gifted players are lost to the elite senior level)

I actually think the gap year(s) issue could actually be made into a positive by the AFL pouring some resources into the SANFL, WAFL and VFL to ensure their fitness and other programs are closer to the AFLs in standard.

That combined with an expanded 'train with' model (ie prospective players sometimes train with an AFL club) would improve the standard of the leagues on the rung below the AFL. And allow young men to settle post VCE and focus on their development.

The thing is its not the Rowels, Langfords and Andersons that we need to worry about - the top 5 draft footy robots will almost always make the next step ok. It's the players like Latrelle Sumner-Pickett that we risk losing to the AFL level ie players who have followed a different path, for example have not gone to a private school and/or played in the Coates league etc.

And on that point, i'd argue the current model disadvantages Indigenous players, as evidenced by the shocking drop in the number of Indigenous players being drafted.

17 minutes ago, Pennant St Dee said:

I still recall Ash’s Demons being unhappy when we selected Salem over Nathan Freeman, draft can be very unforgiving at times.

I’m sceptical on the pick given the other players available however will back JT to have got it right

Have you seen him play live PSD? If yes, would be interested in your impressions.

By the by, another semi related query - what's your opinion on the draft age?

(for transparency, whilst get raising it runs the risk of creating a post junior footy and VCE gap year with players not having an elite system to roll straight into, particularly outside of Vic given the SANFL and WAFL and NFL are not as strong as the VFL, i'm of the view that, with some caveats, that it should be raised to 19)

2 hours ago, joeboy said:

Just as a matter of interest for the doubters, Cal Twomey had Kossie as a speculative Phantom Draft pick 30 prior to us making one of the most important club decisions EVER in selecting him

Memory is a funny thing.

If asked before last night when Koz was taken in his draft, I suspect many dees fans might have guessed top 10 such has been the level he has played at since being drafted

And many might also have forgotten that he was not projected by most draft watchers to go as high as 12. If IIRC many pundits had us linked to Cody Weightman, who ended up going to the dogs at pick 15. Weightman is an excellent player but i very much doubt there's many dees fans who regret the fact we took Koz.

Side note:

It would be a fascinating hypothetical exercise to redo the 2019 draft order - Rowell and Anderson were the deserved top 2, but geez in hindsight i'd be taking Koz over Jackson at pick 3, or for that matter any other player who went top 10, with the possible exception of Caleb Serong.

Speaking of Jackson an interesting factoid is only three first rounders have played in a winning flag from the 2019 draft - Jackson, Koz and Sam De Koning. And i think I'm right in saying of the 2019 first round draft picks only Koz, Anderson Rowell and Serong have been All Australian.

7 minutes ago, Salems Lot said:

Agreed however there has been talk of home sickness over the years and having a familiar face around the place can'tgo astray.

Sure, but he's only just signed a long term deal to stay at the club. Pretty definitive evidence he's not planning on going anywhere anytime soon.

I just think the idea that LP will reduce the likelihood koz will leave implies it was a signficant factor in the decision to draft LP.

Perhaps if koz hadn't just signed a long term deal and LP was a lage last round or rookie pick perhaps it might be a factor. But not a high first round draft pick in an elite bliion dollar competition.

All that said, I 100% agree that playing with family can only be a positive in terms of creating an environment koz loves being in. And that can only be a good thing - for koz, LP, the other indigenous players - in fact is argue the whole club.

A related factor I reckon is LP is 20, which I love. Even though understandably nervous, you could see the difference between LP and some of the 18 year olds.

He has a more life experience than most high end draft picks and I supect won't need the same level of support as say koz did in his first year. Seems like a self contained focused young fella.

Hopefully he thrives in an elite training environment. And if he does, hiven he has not had the benefit of elite junior footy development, he's got much more scope to go up levels than any other first round draft pick.

The parallels to koz, who was also taken at 12 and was also somewhat of a bolter (though perhaps not t9 the same extent) are fascinating.

7 hours ago, Turner said:

since when was a small forward graded on their number of disposals, he needs to be invovled in scoring chains, goals, defensive intent. you can make some argument about spargo here, but he didnt do the goals/pressure part either. picketts do, its in their blood.

Don't worry about his reserves form, how about his seniors form in the SANFL

He's going at 16 disposals, 3 marks, 1 tackle, 2 clearances, 2 inside 50s, and 4 goals a game*

*PSA - redblue whatevs, take a beat if you were about to furiously rebutt the above point. It was a gag - I know he's only played one senior game.

1 minute ago, Salems Lot said:

I would call it 360 degree thinking. He can play, he can kick goals (a clear need) he provides an extra level of support to our marquee player.

Yes, though I'd say koz provides an extra level of support for LP not the other way 'round.

Whilst of course it will be great for koz to have the opportunity to play with his cousin, the inference koz needs extra support of some sort (with the obvious implication being otherwise he will not play his best footy and/or might leave for another club) isn't fair to koz.

Koz is 24, 25 next year, played 120 odd games of AFL footy, is a premiership player, All Australian and just signed a lucrative long term deal.

He doesn't need any extra support.

On 12/11/2025 at 15:09, old55 said:

Vlaustuin?

Good call @old55.

Asked who he models his game on after he was picked Taylor's answer was Vlauustin.

Just now, monoccular said:

I remember seeing cousin Kysiah’s highlights when he was drafted and some, myself included, thought “just highlights” 🤗🤗

Except for that tackle.

That was something else.

9 minutes ago, manny100 said:

May well play early in the season. Has good endurance and did a good 2km.

Promising rookie me profile. Will allow Kosi to play more mid and be extra dangerous when he (Kosi) drifts forward. Speed and X Factor - i like it.

Latrelle Pickett Draft Profile - Aussie Rules Rookie Me Central (formerly AFL Draft Central)

STRENGTHS:

+ Scoreboard impact
+ Speed
+ Vertical leap
+ X-factor

IMPROVEMENTS:

- Defensive work rate
- Exposure

The idea that we would use a pick 12 to keep koz is a nonsense.

The key factor I reckon is, as you suggest, it means koz can play as a permanent mid who goes forward occasionally.

We need koz in the middle as otherwise we have no leg speed in there - well, that and the fact you want koz around the ball as much as possible given his damage factor.

And it goes without saying Taylor thinks he has the talent and potential to justify the decision.

BUT the Koz connection is a big, big bonus and almost certainly a factor in the call, for example instead of taking Cairn or Doveston.

For one thing, what a great way playing with your cousin is to help create an environment LP can thrive and love being in.

Ditto for Koz.

And Wheels must love it as it just adds to a really strong core of young indigenous boys, for whom McAdams and Koz are leaders and great supports.

I'll be honest and say I've barely watched any vision of him (but I will now - ill watch every bit of vision I can find on YouTube).

But even so, I have to say I just love this call.

In Taylor I trust

1 hour ago, Mike said:

Omg what is happening! We've just doubled our Picketts!

King should play them both in de fence.

11 hours ago, Wrecker46 said:

If BOM predicts sunshine I predict rain.

For the gamblers out there Melbourne are ridiculous odds at $9. I don’t think the agencies know how to set the odds properly on AFLW. North are great but you shouldn’t see odds like that in a prelim both sides deserve to be there

Um, I'm not so sure.

The roos' record is phenomenal, and they look a cut above all teams.

A small pool no doubt, so could possiblt drop to $8 or $7, but $9 is not miles off (i just checked - they are out to 9.50).

But it would make a win more epic.

I hope we double down, and lean into our chain up handball outside game.

As we saw against port and the hawks, whilst that method is def suspect against the sort of pressure the roos will bring, realistically it's too late in the day to change how we play.

And if we get into a physical battle and try to beat the roos at their own game they'll completely smash us.

Play with the freedom of being a massive underdog.

All out attack and hope we can put some scoreboard pressure on them.

The pressure is on them not us.

41 minutes ago, adonski said:

Cal's late mail still has us with Farrow and Nairn

LATE MAIL PHANTOM DRAFT

Pick 1 – West Coast: Willem Duursma
Pick 2 – Gold Coast: Zeke Uwland (matching West Coast's bid)
Pick 3 – Carlton: Harry Dean (matching West Coast's bid)
Pick 4 – West Coast: Cooper Duff Tytler
Pick 5 – Gold Coast: Dylan Patterson (matching Richmond's bid)
Pick 6 – Brisbane: Daniel Annable (matching Richmond's bid)
Pick 7 – Richmond: Sam Cumming
Pick 8 – Richmond: Sullivan Robey
Pick 9 – Essendon: Xavier Taylor
Pick 10 – Essendon: Dyson Sharp 
Pick 11 – Melbourne: Jacob Farrow
Pick 12 – Melbourne: Cam Nairn
Pick 13 – Essendon: Lachy Dovaston
Pick 14 – Hawthorn: Sam Grlj
Pick 15 – North Melbourne: Latrelle Pickett
Pick 16 – Sydney: Harry Kyle (matching GWS's bid)
Pick 17 – Greater Western Sydney: Oskar Taylor
Pick 18 – Gold Coast: Jai Murray (matching West Coast's bid)
Pick 19 – West Coast: Beau Addinsall
Pick 20 – Western Bulldogs: Josh Lindsay
Pick 21 – Adelaide: Mitch Marsh
Pick 22 – Carlton: Jack Ison (matching Geelong's bid)
Pick 23 – Geelong: Blake Thredgold
Pick 24 – West Coast: Tylah Williams (matching Fremantle's bid)
Pick 25 – Essendon: Adam Sweid (matching Fremantle's bid)
Pick 26 – Fremantle: Aidan Schubert
Pick 27 – Hawthorn: Liam Hetherton
Pick 28 – North Melbourne: Harley Barker
Pick 29 – Sydney: Lachie Carmichael (matching Western Bulldogs' bid)
Pick 30 – Western Bulldogs: Louis Emmett

Can I propose that when Nairn scores a goal dees fans all start singing:

Nairn, Nairn, Nairn na na na Nairn, na na na Nairn, hey Cam

7 hours ago, Ghostwriter said:

For a long time she’s been solid; reliable and consistent. But she’s dropped off a bunch of late. She looks so much slower now. This hasn’t been a good season for her.

Agree. I'd add that she is basically playing as a kwy forward, but doesn't take enough marks. And doesn't look a natural key forward.

I'd love to see her get super fit and play as a tall winger.

5 hours ago, BW511 said:

Pretty significant upgrade on Spargo though - kicks multiple goals, gets a lot of the footy, has great running capacity and is 6’2” vs 5’8” making him an aerial threat too.

Chalk and cheese, one might say.

'Nairn was a key member of South Australia’s undefeated national champs campaign — and he produced one of the best individual performances of the carnival, booting 7.0 from 10 disposals and five marks against WA playing as a mid-sized forward.'

Seven straight!

Be still my beating heart.

16 hours ago, binman said:

Yep.

And i reckon any unfairness in terms of our double ups is more than balanced out by not having to play the Lions at the gabba and the cats at kardinia given the nuts win loss ratio both teams enjoy at their home grounds (I'd be guessing the top 2 winning percentage over say the last 20 years by a country mile)

On the double ups, I reckon there such was a big drop of between the top 4 teams and the block of teams between 5 and 10 that it's really only last year's top 4 that is relevant.

And really, given the pies fell away in the last third of the 2025 season and their ageing list, you could argue it's just the lions, cats and the crows teams need to get worked up about playing twice (and in any case we only play the pies one).

We only play the 2025 top four once and as I note above two of those games, the cats and lions, are on our home deck which is obviously much better than the alternative.

We of course also play the pies on our home deck, not that has helped us for the last few seasons, and in terms of playing the crows we have a decent record at AO.

Personally, I'm OK with double up games against Freo, Hawks and Suns as, if we are any chance of making finals, which i am hopeful we will be, we need to be competitive with those teams.

I think another positive is getting away to a good start to the season will be critical and we a decent first 5 games - winning 3 of those 5 games is not out of the question.

And whilst I hate 3:15pm Sunday games (you have to wait all weekend and not back home until 7:30 on a Sunday night), and our crowd numbers will take a hit, they are actually really good in terms of getting free to air games and the viewership.

For footy fans, traditionally footy fans knew there was a Saturday night game they could watch on 7 and so for many neutral fans watching that game was part of their weekend routine

That's no longer the case, so that leaves just Friday night and the Sunday twilight games as timeslots neutral fans know they can turn the TV on and watch a free to air game, which is particularly relevant with the cost-of-living atm likely meaning Kayo and fox subscriptions numbers are at best static.

For a big chunk of the year when neutral fans do so on a Sunday arvo they'll be watching the dees, which is great for our sponsors and brand awareness.

Finally, another positive. and I reckon it's a big one, is, as pointed out by a poster above (apologies, I forget who, but it was an excellent point) is our interstate games are spread our much better this year meaning recovering from travel won't be the same challenge it's been for the last few seasons.

I reckon Selwyn G will be very pleased as the travel caused merry hell in terms of recovery and preparation over the last few seasons.

On 13/11/2025 at 15:16, beelzebub said:

Tbf... its arbitrary in a fashion. Is based on what was... not what is...or will be. So I'm not really sure of what value that kind of metric is. Only valid if every team remained the same.... which they won't.

Yep.

And i reckon any unfairness in terms of our double ups is more than balanced out by not having to play the Lions at the gabba and the cats at kardinia given the nuts win loss ratio both teams enjoy at their home grounds (I'd be guessing the top 2 winning percentage over say the last 20 years by a country mile)

Three comments - some positives, a not so positive and a massive negative.

Positives:

I really, really enjoy watching our women play live.

I love the atmosphere and vibe in the crowd - passionate and footy focused but also celebratory.

It's awesome to see so many kids enjoying themselves and there's a cool sense of diversity in terms of mix of age and gender.

And I have to say I like that the game is done and dusted in a couple of hours.

I feel like a big factor in the positive energy in the crowd is the very evident cohevisness and shared warmth and love within the team - players and coaches alike (and there seems to he a real connection with the fans- kudos must go to the Demon Army for fostering this connection).

As an example, as is my won't I was watching the players at the 3 quarter time huddle thru my binos (I really like to see the body language of players and coaches, see who us paying attention to the coach, whose not, and its a bonus if I can read the messages on the whiteboards).

Heath looked completely stuffed and was having a laugh with some other players who came over to give her a pat on the back (I'm guessing something happened late in the 3rd involving Shelley?).

Stinnear came accross, said something and gave Heath a little shoulder hug and kissed the top of her head. Heath gave him a hug and beamed. It was all so natural and warm.

I watched the second half when I got home and was struck by the vision of Stinnear wiping away tears after the game. He loves his team and they love him.

Not so positive:

As i was watched the women playing a final in the red and the blue (side note - we have the best jumper and colour scheme by far) I reflected that they are representing my club, the club I've supported since I was five years old. And I was so proud of them. I really felt that sense of them being demons and being 'my' team.

But I also reflected that I don’t think the club has walked the talk on the commitment to the three teams, one club idea, and in particular fostering the connection between the men's and women's teams.

That's on the club, but to be honest I think Goody could have done more in that space, particularly in terms of building a connection between the men's and women's teams, and perhaps as importantly the two programs.

Massive negative:

The umpiring was appalling yesterday. Just appalling.

Because scores are lower, poor umpiring has an outsize impact.

Just look at yesterday- they got three goals from umpire error, nearly half the number of goals they scored (and one, the ridiculous reversal free against Paxy - which by the by was on my side of the ground and I happened to see with my binos: they simply ran into each other - broke a potential scoring chain for us).

I don't blame the umpires, I blame the AFL. There is zero exuse not to have the very best umpires officiating a final when there is no other football being played. None.

It is a reflection of the apathy the AFL has towards AFLW.

And on umpiring, make it a professional all year round job, with a mix of part and full time umpires.

The 'team' of umpires would officiate the men's games, women's games, regulary attend pre and in season training sessions (mens and womens) and support the development of umpires at lower levels by working with local leagues to offer mentoring and training to local footy umpires.

That model would help create a genuine pathway for young umpires, and even players, at the local level who want a career in elite sport.

Terrific win, made more impressive by needing to come from behind and the fact that hanks' didn't have her usual impact.

Worherspoon gets better every week and it's impossible not to love how Heath goes about her footy.

2 minutes ago, rjay said:

Maybe some smart promoter could have them headline a free music bowl show along with some of their contemporaries and up and comers.

Do they have that sort of drawing power?

They are big.

And getting bigger. They just got nominated for a Grammy Award (best rock performance)

I saw them at the Sydney Myer music bowl a few months back, which I think was close to a sell out.

11 hours ago, Brownie said:

Did you get there @binman .

So sad it got shutdown, especially for the kids under 18.

Really nice gesture by the band to hand over their performance to a stack of live music venues. 5K on the bar at a stack of venues. Legends.

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1Cbh5xt9M7/

No, thankfully.

Uhmed and aahed, but buses on my train line was the clincer as I couldn't get there by 6pm, when I figured they would shut it coz it would be full. Proved to be correct.

Shows how popular they are.

13 minutes ago, Ghostwriter said:

For mine it’s not about the era, nor the title, nor the lyrics. It’s 30-40 seconds of power in the form of menacing, foreboding music.

And there's no such song that is not decades old?

3 minutes ago, Ghostwriter said:

How about…

Guerrilla Radio - Rage Against The Machine.

Sleep Now In The Fire - Rage Against The Machine

Bulls On Parade - Rage Against The Machine

Killing In The Name (Of) - Rage Against The Machine

Renegades Of Funk - Rage Against The Machine

Wake Up - Rage Against The Machine

Pretty much anything RATM

If we were going to use an ancient song I'd rather we go back to a time when we were actually successful.

Say, 1964.

You really got me by the Kinks would do the trick nicely

('ahead of its time' is a much abused rock cliche, ditto 'influential' but both are very apt in this case - incredible song, its fuzzy guitar sound and stabbing chords remain a template in rock music, particularly grunge era rock. For context the number one single in 1964 in Australia was the ultra sugary pop of I saw her her standing there - with love me do on the b side - by the Beatles. Ooooh)

20 minutes ago, The end is nigh said:

Apologies for the thread clog, but if someone could direct me as to how to put someone on ignore, I’d very much appreciate it.

Go to your account (just tap your avatar) and you'll see a list of actions. One is ignored users. Just compete the field asking who you want ignore.

2 hours ago, whatwhat say what said:

their manager is a lovely person too

going friday? free gig at fed square

I think so. My hesitation is I reckon it will be full by 6pm smd I'm not sure if I can get there by then. Keen to see public figures, which are playing at Golden Plains.