Meh, only part I agree with is that he is essentially worth exactly a number 1 pick, no reason to dispute this. But there is no way the AFL will change the formula for us specifically, otherwise every club will petition the AFL for 'special conditions'. The only question is, will we get band 1 or band 2 if he leaves? The result is so dependent on where we finish in the year we take the pics so it's hard to judge what he is worth. I disagree thoroughly though that band 1 is 'overs' for Scully, unless we are planning on finishing in the bottom 2 or 3.
If we finish last band 1 is pick 2 and pick 9, which is worth more than he is worth, band 2 would be pick 2, which is about right.
If we finish 8th though band 1 is pick ~9 and ~12, which is probably just not worth it; Sydney offered pick 6 and 14 for pick 3 in 2009 and were turned down, rightly so considering top 3 in 2009 look well above the rest (bar Fyfe) but it's probably roughly equivalent.
If we had band 2 and finished 8th we would get pick ~11 which is clearly not even close.