Adam The God

Would you have believed Geelong were a contender this time last year? As I just posted in the Podcast thread, our 2023 form line is incredibly similar to Geelong's 2022 form line. Geelong were 2-3 against top 8 sides to Round 10, not drastically different from us this year. They beat Collingwood by 13 points and Brisbane by 10 points (at Geelong). They lost to Sydney by 30 points (in Sydney), they lost to Fremantle by 3 points (at Geelong) and they lost to St Kilda (who were in the 8 at the time) by 10 points. Meantime, they 'beat up' on easy beats Essendon by 66 points, North by 60 points and GWS by 53 points, and lost to lowly Hawthorn by 12 points. I wonder if Geelong supporters were saying the same thing about their team last year at this stage? Geelong's soft draw in the second half of 2022, is also comparable with our soft draw in the second half of 2023.

And Positive Binners also asked what was Geelong's record against top 8 sides at this stage last year. Well, they were 2-3 against top 8 sides to Round 10, not drastically different from us this year. They beat Collingwood by 13 points and Brisbane by 10 points (at Geelong). They lost to Sydney by 30 points (in Sydney), they lost to Fremantle by 3 points (at Geelong) and they lost to St Kilda (who were in the 8 at the time) by 10 points. Meantime, they 'beat up' on easy beats Essendon by 66 points, North by 60 points and GWS by 53 points, and lost to lowly Hawthorn by 12 points. I wonder if Geelong supporters were saying the same thing about their team last year at this stage? As I've said on a few occasions now, Geelong's 2022 form line is remarkably similar to our 2023 form line. And Geelong's soft draw in the second half of 2022, is comparable with our soft draw in the second half of 2023.

JVR may get a rest though. The cupboard is pretty bare though, because I wouldn't be playing TMac ideally... Derps, probably Schache for TMac and I wouldn't be against Smith replacing JVR for the one week. I doubt they'll want to replace both KPFs in the one week.

It's very likely we will not continue experimenting with our mids though and that these numbers that everyone seems so worried about, will continue (ie we'll still be top 4 for scores from stoppages). I don't mind too much if we're losing the stoppage count, but winning the scores from stoppages. Particularly, as given our strength this year is scores from turnover, if the opposition is winning stoppages and kicking it straight to us and we're scoring on turnover, we have the game looking like we want it. Surely, you'd agree with this? And naturally, we're going to be judged by our next month or so of footy.

Just listening to last night's podcast. @binman mentioned he heard on the radio we added an extra to the stoppage during a week we were without Max. I just wonder if that was the Essendon game in the rain. And it should be noted that we don't always go -1 at every stoppage. We often go 1v1.

Righto mate. It's really not a big deal. And again, not the point I was making.

I mentioned Oliver because he was out, but May and Petty going off cost us those games (Petty missed the third quarter three weeks in a row, where the opposition got ahold of us). But again, not the point I was making. The point I was making is we've improved our second halves, which were crucial to us not making a prelim or GF last year. So there's plenty to be optimistic about.

Criticise or to point out that saying 'we turn up to certain games asleep like last year' was factually incorrect? Interesting framing, given I'm the one sticking up for the club...

After winning 10 straight, it went something like this: Round 11 - we led Freo 6.8 to 2.7 at half time. Lost by 38 points. Round 13 - we led Collingwood 5.4 to 3.8 at half time. Lost by 26 points. Round 17 - we trailed Geelong 5.4 to 5.8 at half time. Lost by 28 points. Round 19 - we led Bulldogs 11.5 to 9.2 at half time. Lost by 10 points. Round 21 - we led Collingwood 10.7 to 8.2 at half time. Lost by 7 points. First Qualifying Final - we trailed Sydney 5.4 to 6.4 at half time. Lost by 22 points. Semi Final - we led Brisbane 6.8 to 3.4 at half time. Lost by 13 points. It certainly helps if your best players are on the park as well. Missing May, Petty and Oliver last year was huge. We weren't far off last year to be honest. Our second halves in the second half of the season cost us at least 8 wins. This year, we've only lost one 4th quarter - against Port.

That wasn't the trend at all last year. The trend was in the second half of the year, we'd run out of steam in second halves. Whereas, in our premiership year we'd run over teams usually (exception basically being GWS and Collingwood that year). That is literally how you beat every team in the competition, because moving the ball quickly off half back is the way to beat the modern zone that we'd perfected in 2021. I agree that the way to beat the modern zone is to move the ball quickly and use short chips off half back to break the zone and then kick over the top of it. Even better if you can use a chip and then a handball receive to break more lines. However, when teams have done it to us, our half forwards have been off and when they tried it (say against Sydney), we shut them down by not allowing the handball receive. I do think the modern zone requires a tweak and I've banged on about this for a few weeks now, because I think we were trialling something in our Richmond game. That is, go 1v1 from the stationary kick out and then zone behind it. But again, you don't necessarily want to show all your cards at this stage of the season. This is an adjustment we could make in season IMO. The system is about trusting your players to play their roles and get the job done. This was Clarkson's philosophy during the threepeat era as well...

They can't even get the weather right a few hours out. At this stage, they're just as likely to get it completely wrong this far out.

Patently untrue. Last year we were reliant on stoppages for scores. We went long to the pockets. We played the same three mids at almost every centre stoppage and were trying to be perfect out the front of stoppages from these situations. Leading into the Port game, we were in the top 4 for scores from stoppages, scores from turnovers and scores from kick outs. A much greater ability to score than last year. This has translated to being highest scoring side in the competition (not the case last year), but we've managed not to greatly sacrifice our defensive side of the game, as we still have the fourth best defensive record in the competition. We are also rolling many more players through the stoppages this year and experimenting all over the ground, particularly with our forward and defensive set ups (personnel wise), and using our wingers differently to 2021-2022. For example, they no longer sit off the back of the contest, they literally stay out. The anti-bees to the honey pot. So we've managed to go from a very safe, move the ball slowly and predictably to the pockets, to a team that moves the ball quickly, plays more defensive smalls than talls to win defensive ground ball and run and carry off half back, and we also enter 50 more centrally and less predictably than 2022. It's made the emphasis on winning the contest even greater. If we win the contest, our game flows and we score quickly. If we lose the contest (think Port on Friday night), we struggle to score, but our defensive organisation keeps us in games. Ground ball remains the only real weakness that has followed through from 2022. What has arguably gone backwards is our stoppage work, but this is easily explained by the fact we're rolling our less talented players through there more often, to take lessons from Geelong and rest our elite players in game more. What has stayed true from 2021-2023 is that if we win contest and ground ball, we're extremely difficult to beat. And in 2023, we have far more avenues to goal (ways of scoring and personnel). In fact, again, going into the Port game, we were top 5 of all time for spread of goal kickers per game. Our game is set up to score from both stoppages and from turnover, something that is clearly very deliberately set up to beat Collingwood, who rely on extra numbers at the stoppage. So if we commit less to the contest, it means we have runners on the outside. Providing our contested players win the inside battle, we're a huge shot of scoring heavily on the outside and off turnover. I'd love to know how you think we're winning and losing in the same ways? I hope you've got more than 'we beat up on the weak teams and can't beat the better teams'...

Are we? Are we winning in the same way? Are we losing in the same way?

That's not really what David King means though. We backed our players to get the job done. As I've said elsewhere, Butters had 8 possessions in the last quarter, 4 of them were ineffective. We led at the 3/4 time break by effectively 2 goals, after playing 1 quarter. It's this sort of over simplistic analysis that is the very reason many find King to be a nuff nuff.

Melbourne supporters would call it bees to the honey pot...

Finals tend to be more 1v1 though. We tended to roll up a winger like Gus to back of stoppages in 2021, but I think if you'd chosen a H&A game, we'd have been going -1 at stoppages or finding ways of generating the +1 behind the ball.

All those losses happened in the first 9 rounds, when they were 5 and 4. So they lost all their games without him. But then won 13 in a row, with a soft home-slanted draw (especially for a preliminary finalist) in the second half of the season.

Disagree with the idea that Max is never going to tap goal side. He constantly tapped goal side, and does most weeks, and this is how we concede stoppage goals, because that tap draws pressure immediately and our mids never seem on the same page as Max. It cost us at least one goal the other night. Having said all that, it will be interesting to see if we tweak the system without Oliver. When you no longer have the best contested player in the competition, it's a risky move to go -2 or even -1 at the contest.

I'm pointing out that we're in the top 4 for pretty much everything, including the ladder itself, and the default, 'the sky is falling' position is not constructive and it's the easy position to take. Everyone could see defensive intensity issues in the forward half last year. That was not an oracle moment. The predictable ball movement was also widely and rightly lamented. But injuries are what curtailed last year's premiership defence IMO. Not being 'worked out'. Most of our important players were carrying injuries into the second half of the year and then Trac broke his leg in that first final. Both finals were narrow losses, that if fully fit, wouldn't have happened IMO. As we know, flags require a huge amount of luck and luck wasn't with us in 2022, whereas it certainly was in 2021. I think it's perfectly reasonable to argue during 2022 that we'd sort things out as we had done the previous year, but the injuries and niggles to key players (think Clarry having his finger kicked off by Selwood in that huge game down at Geelong) were unforeseeable. 2023 is a completely different year. I'm not saying we don't have issues either. Our biggest problem IMO at the moment is our inability to win ground ball at either end. When we don't, our game completely breaks down. We also need to find the right forward and defensive make up, but we still have time.

I reckon Turner will be a good player. I agree with the calls for him to take the second KPB spot to free up Lever. If Bowser misses due to concussion, we go one less small. If he doesn't I wonder if we simply roll Rivers through the midfield and/or even half forward to get some energy across half forward. I'm more confident we'll beat Freo than I was Port. Bookmark a win here.

And yet we were in the top 4 for scores from turnover, scores from kick outs and scores from stoppages leading into the weekend. Lose by 4 points and let's throw the baby out with the bathwater. We're all free to hold our own positions on this, but the exact same arguments were also being had during the middle part and even the back end of 2021. Injury curtailed us in 2022, this year we've made some tweaks and it has us in good shape. The easy position to take is the negative. I'd rather take the positive, constructive approach, but each to their own.

Chandler kicks his snap (he should have) and we win. Because he doesn't, our system doesn't work. It doesn't always work, but if you think it's going to win you a flag (2021) with some additional tweaks (2023?), you have to take the losses when they come at Round 10 when experimentation continues. In the meantime, Collingwood's system, which everyone seems to love, will see them lose games too and will it win them a flag? Who knows. Our -1 at the contest is fine, it backs our mids to be clean around stoppage and our forwards to create contests and win ground ball. It puts it on the players to perform. They didn't get the job done. We can't be perfect every week. I agree we'd like to get more out of stoppage, but there's still time. IMO, to abandon our intercept game (that has seen us lead scoring up til Round 10) would be an extreme folly. We need to find our best mix soon, but Round 10 isn't it. I'll back the FD and our players to turn it around.

You didn't feel Clarry stood up? 1st quarter - 11 disposals, 1 tackle 2nd quarter - 4 disposals, 4 tackles 3rd quarter - 10 disposals, 3 tackles 4th quarter - 5 disposals, 1 tackle. 30 disposals, 9 tackles, 8 clearances, 6 intercept possessions, 6 score involvements, 39 pressure acts (almost elite), 569 metres gained. All from 86% TOG. FMD, he gets a hard go on here. We are witnessing one of the greatest footballers of all time, running around in our jumper, and it's going unnoticed even by our own supporters. May was great, but if he'd kept his feet instead of inexplicably going to ground moments earlier, it may never have gotten to Rozee in the square for the match winner.

Sure, they should have been further up at half time, but we should have brought pressure and work rate for the first half and didn't. Nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems. We're in the top 4 for most attacking and defensive stats. Yet, we have a lot of room for improvement. Given it's May, there should be some room for optimism. But you've already planted your anti-Goodwin flag, so that'll be harder to see past.

Butters had 8 disposals at 50% efficiency in the final quarter. We didn't lose the game because of Butters. We lost the game because of our inability to be clean at ground level and bring the pressure for the first half. And yet, if Chandler kicks the snap late, we win. Irrespective of Butters' contribution and the umpires to his scoreline, our system wins it, had the players been as clean as Port were. We weren't, so lost by less than a kick in hostile territory after basically playing a quarter of footy.