You don't make it up, but take a punt...
You are guessing, maybe with some sort of idea, but unless your sister is seeing the medical scans and reports and is in hand meeting where they discuss how much workload a 25 year old with 6 preseason a under his belt and x amount of work done on this program... You are guessing and to then state will be light running by February without naming a source, did you expect a different response?