Greetings Demonlanders. Long time reader first time poster.
This has been an interesting thread to follow. Opinions have ranged from the extremes of “shut the discussion down Jessie won’t leave, the club will never trade him and you’re not a real supporter for even bringing it up” to “we should [censored] him off to Freo now and cash in for three early first rounders and Adam Cerra.”
As usual the reality is going to be somewhere in between.
Where there’s smoke there’s usually fire and this round of rumours is stronger than anything we’ve seen previously. I suspect Paul Roos was right the other night when he said this thing is being largely driven by Freo, in which case the Dees have to seriously consider cashing in on a player who realistically might not want to stay at the club beyond 2019. He has so far given no commitment to doing so.
We have shown on a number of occasions over several seasons that we can win and win well without Hogan, against quality opposition no less. So, if he is open to going and Freo are prepared to pay the freight, let’s put this situation to our advantage and use it to actually strengthen the 22 overall. A year from now he comes out of contract and we may not be blessed with such an opportunity.
The multi-million dollar question is ... what’s he worth? Well, a number of factors come into play here, not least of which is how desperate and in need are Fremantle of a KPF of genuine quality? Answer: EXTREMELY. Fremantle supporters are getting restless with Ross Lyon facing the very real possibility of losing his job if he can’t manufacture something for them to get excited about next year. They haven’t had a reliable marking goalkicker since Pav hung them up. Make no mistake the Freo hierarchy will be sitting around a board table very nervous about entering yet another season with a shizen forward line and the more pressure we place on them on this trade the more likely they are to blink and cough up a handsome price in return. This is why the trading Hogan now should be quite attractive to us. For bloody once we have the whip hand and the other club over a barrel. Ain’t that nice!
That said I do think we have to be careful here not to chronically overrate Hogan and bandy around terms like “generational player”, “superstar” and all the other fawning epithets us one-eyed fans are want to put on our favourite players at times. A cold, clear analysis of Hogan’s output and abilities do not put him in the Wayne Carey/Jonathan Brown/Buddy Franklin class but do suggest he’s in the next tier down from these guys. He’s a fine player but there are enough minor flaws there to suggest Freo will walk away if our claims are too ambit and ridiculous. Pick 4 & 5 and a quality player? It’s not going to happen folks.
On the balance of it I’d say we will push for something like picks 5 & 9 in a strong draft with Freo holding out until the final day of trade week for something like pick 5 & either a second rounder or player of that quality (ie. Ed Langdon). We should not do that deal. We had to prize Jake Lever out of Adelaide with what many thought was ‘overs’ at the time. Freo can damn well do the same now if they are serious about slotting Jessie Hogan at full forward for round 1, 2019.
I hope Josh Mahoney and Co are smart enough and tough enough to do what needs to be done here at the trade table. Recognise that Freo and Ross Lyon are in a bit of a desperate situation and make them ante up a bit more than they’d like to.
Then we can look at on trading Pick 9 to the Suns for Steve May, with Pick 5 going to GWS for Dylan Shiel (who I hear we are seriously into as well).
An outcome of that nature would strengthen our 22 on the balance of it and go close to having the bookies installing us as premiership favourites next year. At the end of the day that’s what it’s all about isn’t it?
Be bold and get it done Dees!