Beats

Thanks - thought I’d seen that somewhere but wasn’t able to find it searching through the forums. Have had a couple of posters reach out and the ticket is now spoken for providing we make it. Go dees.

This is my first post on this forum in years. Bought a grand final guarantee this year, but am Melbourne based so won’t be able to go. Just spoke to the membership line regarding whether it would be a refund or whether we can pass the barcode on to someone else. The membership lady said we can pass the barcode on to someone else… has anyone heard if they’ll offer refunds? Would be happy to pass the barcode on to someone who can go, but will want to recoup the ~$230 or so I spent on the grand final guarantee…

Well I'm underwhelmed. Would have liked their third or fourth on top, but cest la vie. Melksham will replace Howe off hb, bugg will replace cross as a negating mid, Kennedy will replace Toumpas as a vfl player who plays 5-10 times a year. Replacing average role players with more average role players. Will be disappointed if we walk out with worse draft picks than when we entered if those 3 are our only trades. We will have to rely on no key players going down with injury and every young player on our list making significant improvement to contemplate finals at this stage.

We traded for Frost last year because at the very last minute we baulked at reports that St Kilda (with pick #1) would take him in the PSD over Tim Membrey. There was no stalling over picks, the FD simply didn't hold it's nerve to take him in the PSD. You're right, sometimes you just have to pull the trigger, Melksham is not someone you pull the trigger on though, he's a c-grade player (B- at best). If he's out of contract and our 4 year, 400k a year offer is higher than anyone else we should just say fk it, go through the PSD or draft. Also, let's use some logic - if it's a straight swap of 25 for Melksham it's not holding any other deals up, he's on holidays O/S according to his twitter & afl.com.au so it's not like there's an advantage in getting the player to the club early. It would make sense to wait to see if we could get a more appropriate pick if it's a straight swap. As for your 'not flucking around comment' - I'll believe that when we land an A-grade mid, as Roos publically stated we wanted one mid year. Also for the record, Port got a contracted Ryder for pick 19 last year, this year in a weaker draft we are reportedly trading pick 25 for an uncontracted Melksham. Someone explain that to me please (for the 'pick 25 is the only pick we have, if it's slight overs meh' crowd, read the above paragraph).

http://m.3aw.com.au/news/jake-melksham-set-to-join-melbourne-20150917-gjpbyy.html. - link to audio. 4 year deal? Are the people who signed terlich up for 3 still working at the club?.... They shouldn't be. Edit - autocorrect on phone

He's an unrestricted free agent and OOC at the end of 2016. I like him, but there's no better time than now to trade him. If he plays most of next year in the VFL and leaves as an UFA the compensation we would receive would be next to nothing.

He's contracted on big money (500k-600k) until the end of 2016. If we trade him and another club pays less than what we do, we have to make up the difference until his contract with us is up. Eg we're paying him 550k until the end of 2016. If we trade him to Brisbane who pay him 250k we will have 300k of his contract with us on our books in 2015. What's Dawes' value on the open market? I'm thinking pick 40ish.

Depends what you mean by 2nd round pick - pick 20 yes, pick 36 no. Don't think Garland is/ was/ will be on half a mil a year though.

What are the following players worth on the open market? Howe Dawes Grimes What does Garland get us if he leaves under FA?

Well I made it half way through the season without looking at this thread, but can't see us finishing much higher than 13th (if we sneak a few wins). Although the team is better placed than last year, there will be big turnover in 2015 and 2016. I decided to procrastinate and do some analysis of the list and trade period as I see it atm. De-listings, Trades and FA I believe that players currently out of contract at the end of the 2015 season are Viney, Toumpas, Gawn, Howe, Pedo, Jamar(UFA), Cross, Garland (UFA), Mckenzie (RFA?), Riley, Bail, Hunt, and Fitzy. (apologies if I've missed a recent re-signing). Of those players I'm guessing that Viney gets 3-4 years, 2 for Toumpas, Gawn and Howe (unless traded), 1 for Pedo. Being ruthless would see Jamar and Cross step aside to let younger players have opportunities (be retired). Garland to go seeking success as a FA. Mckenzie, Riley, Bail and Hunt to be thanked for their efforts. Fitzy left sweating on whether we pick up a better big option in the trade period (if we do de-list). Draft picks after FA and De-listings For simplicity I'm assuming we can't afford to pay a contracted player out and that we go with my changes above and de-list fitzy prior to the trade period, rather than making him sweat on whether we bring another tall in. We will upgrade Vandenberg. That leaves us with 7 list spots prior to trade week. Garland at 27 y/o could potentially net us a pick after our 2nd round at best and a pick after our 3rd at worst. I folded and did the AFL ladder predictor, with us finishing 14th on percentage. For simplicity, assuming no other team gets FA and there are no 'expansion associated picks' in this draft (those picks that could be used in any draft within the next 5 years) we would end up with picks 5, 23, 24, 42, 60, 78, 96. etc. Players OOC at end of 2016 Excluding the players out of contract in 2015 listed above I believe the players currently out of contract at the end of the 2016 (unless I've missed an extension) are Spencer (UFA), Watts (UFA), Grimes (UFA), Jetta (UFA), Mcdonald (RFA), Trengove (RFA), Stretch, Frost, Kent, ANB, Tyson, Newton, Michie, Garlett, Terlich, Dawes, M.Jones and Vince. UFA is 2008 draft and before, RFA is 2009-2010 draft. For the record of the players currently out of contract at the end of 2015 who would be FA if re-signing to the end of 2016 are Howe, Gawn and Fitzy. Tradeable players The point of the OOC 2016 players is to show who we should look at trading before they become an UFA/ RFA. For me the only one that's a definite keep is Mcdonald. Watts, Grimes, Trengove, Howe and Gawn may hold some value. Howe may pull us a pick in the 15-20 range, Watts maybe something in the 20's. Would prefer to keep the others, rather than receive chips for them in a trade. Outside of Howe and Watts I can't see any players that we can afford to give up that another team would want, possibly Dawes for a pick in the 30's. Gaps in the list The strategy should be to fill any potential gaps in the list through the trade period, allowing us to pick best available in the draft. Either a number 1 ruck or ruck/ fwd - Jamar, Spencer, Gawn, Fitzpatrick, Frost, King® and Pedersen is not a list that gives me confidence for the long term. Genuine A-grade quality – if we can get it anywhere on the park it would be a big plus, preferably a mid but a forward would do to. Someone with at least 4 years left on the clock. My dream Scenario Howe and our third round (42) to GWS for their first, third and fourth round (12ish, 49ish and 67ish) Dawes to Brisbane for their third round (40ish). Watts + Garland compo (24) for Dixon and GC fourth rd (57ish) Our first (5), GWS first (12ish) and our second (23) for a quality young mid (think Hannebery, Treloar etc.), a pick between 13-22 (17) and a fourth rounder (72) In: Dixon, Hannebery, 17, 40, 49, 57, 67, 72 Out: Watts, Dawes, Howe, 5, 23, 24, 42 The draft and f/s bidding We would enter the draft with picks 17, 40, 49, 57, 60, 67, 72, 78, 96, 114 etc. however thanks to the beauty of the new f/s bidding system I would expect some changes in our favour. Purely speculating on draftee values: If Sydney pick up Dunkley for a top 5 pick and Mills in the top 10 they will be out of the draft after the second round and potentially out of the first round next year as well, hence the trade for Hannebery above, which is essentially Hannebery + 57 for Mills and Dunkley (after the 20% discount is applied). It allows them to stay in 2nd and 3rd round. If the trade for Howe goes through GWS will lose their second for Hopper and Kennedy (late 1st / early 2nd rounders each) and will likely push their later picks to the back of the draft, as well as losing picks in the next draft. (GWS’s list is contracting over the next few years so they will be looking to minimise their draft presence). This will push our picks 40+ up a spot. Brisbane taking Keays (mid 20’s) will push our picks 40+ up again. Unless a f/s or academy prospect comes from the clouds this is how I expect it will happen. It’s a shallow draft, GWS and GC have contracting lists and will look to only take 3 in the draft, as will Sydney due to f/s. Would expect to enter the draft with picks 17, 38ish, 46ish, 54ish, 57ish and 62ish and a bunch of picks in the 60’s and 70’s (due to most teams taking few prospects in a shallow draft). After f/s bidding and due to a shallow draft we could potentially end up with 6 picks within 60. Add two delisted free agents to be named at a later date and that’s all the changes. TL/DR + To sum up Pointless mid season procrastination and speculation on the upcoming trade period resulting in the following changes: Out (11) Garland(FA), Jamar(ret), Cross(ret), Hunt(del), Bail(del), Mckenzie(del), Fitzy(del), Riley(del), Watts(trade), Howe(trade), Dawes(trade), In Hannebery, Dixon, Vandenberg(upgrade), delisted FA #1, delisted FA #2, picks 17, 38, 46, 54, 57, 62. Probably more picks than you'd like at the back end, but prefer picks 54+ to the delistees.

This. Brisbane could have nominated him for father son, if he was nominated and no one bid on him he would have been taken with their last pick. He either told Brisbane that he doesn't want to play for them or he was judged not up to the required level. If he had told them he didn't want to play for them it would have been in the news. That would indicate that he's a rookie pick at best.