THE YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART ONE

[Whispering_Jack 29,240]

Demonland presents the views of "Stevo" who knows the ins and outs of the Under 18 TAC Cup scene from an insider's point of view. He was there at all of the National Under 18 championship games played in Melbourne this winter. These are his views on the melbournefc's 2007 draft prospects as told to Whispering Jack...

THE YEAR OF DRAFTING DANGEROUSLY – PART ONE by Stevo

The nature of the AFL draft has changed significantly since its early days. The art of talent identification has become more sophisticated and the public interest has grown particularly with the development of information technology. In the month before the draft you will read any number of expert opinions and phantom drafts in the newspapers and on the internet, some of which are educated, intelligent and informed and others by people who are clueless.

I write this knowing that in presenting my views on the 2007 NAB AFL Draft I might also attract the "clueless" label but, having been involved at the grass roots level, I can at least say that I've seen most (but not all) of the draft prospects with my own eyes.

I want to look at the draft a little differently to the others. I am more focussed on viewing it from a Melbourne supporter's viewpoint. The Demons have just gone through a difficult year in which they fell unexpectedly from top four prospect to a disappointing 14th. They have overhauled their coaching regime and the new coach Dean Bailey has indicated that the team will be regenerated through its 23 and under age group and that drafting young talent is a priority. The club is not likely to take any major risks with its recruiting.

Melbourne has six "live" selections in the November 24 Draft – picks 4, 14, 21, 52, 64 and 70 but should pass on the last selection to leave room for a pick in the December Pre Season Draft (number 3). As far as 52 and 64 are concerned, it's difficult to even hazard a guess as to who they might be given that at this level you are deep in the realm of speculation where anything can happen. For that reason, I will mainly concentrate on the first three selections and look at the players the Demons might take at numbers 4, 14 and 21.

Firstly, some observations about this draft. I think it may well end up being remembered for the same reasons as this year's NAB AFL Under-18 Championships in June/July - by the dominance of Western Australia over the other states. The Sandgropers opened with an impressive 47-point win over Vic Metro at Subiaco Oval, followed that up by defeating Vic Country by 43 points and then demolished South Australia at Casey Fields, Cranbourne by 77 points to comprehensively take out the championship. Eight of their kids made All Australian although two are not eligible for the draft because of their age. That's what I call "dominance"!

In a year when the "go home" factor has been so famously highlighted by Chris Judd’s shock decision to return home from Perth, the large number of talented and exciting players from WA leads me to look at this as the "Year of Drafting Dangerously". The WA clubs would be weighing up whether or not to take fancied players from the other states ahead of their own home grown talent while the Victorians and others would be wondering about the intentions of some of those kids they might have to lure away from Perth. The fact that two of the top three most highly regarded draftees come from Victoria might sound a contradiction but it makes the whole scenario all the more interesting.

The other aspect that that can turn an AFL draft into a dangerous pastime for recruiters is the fact that there are some impressive tall options around the place but these players are often difficult to gauge when they play at junior level. When they step up to playing with men they can be hit or very much miss. The advantages of getting a "hit" can be enormous but you can also end up with egg on your face if the player turns out to be a dud at AFL level.

That said, it's interesting to note the commonly held view is that the top pick in this draft will be 199cm tall ruckman/forward Matthew Kreuzer (Northern Knights Vic Metro) who is virtually a given at first pick for Carlton. I'm not even convinced he's the best player in this draft pool, but time will tell on that score. Big men take their time and it would be a mistake for the Blues to think he is going to be an immediate senior selection at AFL level but he's the outstanding tall man on TAC Cup form and they won't pass on him. Cale Morton (Claremont WA) and Trent Cotchin (Northern Knights Vic Metro) are favoured to fill the rest of the top three picks before Melbourne gets its turn at selection four. Their selections are virtually set in stone although not necessarily in that order. Since there still remains some debate about the selections, I will include them as possibles in the unlikely event of one of them falling to pick four.

One interesting quirk of the draft order is that the West Coast Eagles precede every one of Melbourne's early draft picks. With so much focus on acquiring top midfield talent early in the draft and with the Eagles' stocks in this area suddenly depleted by the loss of Judd and Ben Cousins, they could well frustrate the Demons' intentions by getting in first on players who the Dees might also have in their sights. That however, is the way of the draft.

Selection Four

There are a few contenders for this selection. Apart from Morton and Cotchin, they are West Australian midfielders Chris Masten and Rhys Palmer (who I put marginally ahead of SA’s Brad Ebert), key position players Lachlan Henderson and Alex Rance and ruckman Ben McEvoy.

Trent Cotchin 07.04.89 184 cm 81 kg (Northern Knights Vic Metro) – a class act but up till now has not done enough when he's been on the really big stage. His ball handling, disposal and decision-making are all excellent and he is reasonably quick but I regard him more of a forward flanker at this stage. He was heavily tagged in the Under 18 championships and was beaten hands down in the WA game by Patrick McGinnity who made All Australian. The mail from out west however, is that the Eagles will take him if the Tigers don’t select him with their second choice.

Lachlan Henderson 14.12.89 196 90 (Geelong Falcons Vic Country) – this kid may well be a risk worth taking but it would certainly be a dangerous risk with a pick as high as number 4. He can play key forward or key back and is very mobile for his height of 196 cm. He has a great pair of hands, is a very good kick and what more can you say but for the fact that he spent most of 2007 on the injury list with a broken leg.

Ben McEvoy 11.07.89 199 90 (Murray Bushrangers Vic Country) – can play ruck and key forward where he was used in the TAC Cup grand final without showing out. Given that Melbourne traded a draft selection to get John Meesen from the Crows I think it highly unlikely that it would use this or any of its early picks for another ruckman although, if he were still available at 14, he might come under consideration.

Chris Masten 02.05.89 179 78 (East Fremantle WA) – the best player available. A classic midfielder who is highly motivated, reasonably quick and has great endurance. He played senior football with WAFL club East Fremantle for most of the year and managed to hold his own although he is reportedly struggling currently with a mild case of osteitis pubis. The Eagles would be tossing up whether or not to take him ahead of Cotchin and the decision will be an agonising one. I believe they are leaning towards taking the Victorian.

Cale Morton 18.01.90 192 75 (Claremont WA) – a true utility who can play anywhere and is full of skill and class. In time, he would make an excellent replacement at Melbourne for Travis Johnstone but I suspect that the Demons are out of the equation and he will join his brother Mitch and be taken at 2 by Richmond.

Rhys Palmer 13.02.89 181 76 (East Fremantle WA) – the Demons will be pondering on whether to take Masten or Palmer when it comes to making their decision. Season 2007 was a red bullet year for this genuine midfield gun and he emphatically overtook many of his peers. His National Under 18 Championship form was outstanding as was his game at senior level in the WAFL where he already has a five-goal haul to his name. Masten is the hard at it midfielder while Palmer is the brilliant finisher who will make his mark at AFL level immediately. Which would you choose?

Alex Rance 19.10.89 194 87 (Swan Districts WA) – a skilful tall defender with the right pedigree for AFL football (his father captained the Eagles in their early days) and was impressive in his only senior WAFL game. Said to be the best big key defender in the draft by a country mile and the Demons do need big key defenders. A dasher who the judges say is a ready-made AFL player.

The verdict? Melbourne coach Dean Bailey has gone on record as saying that the drafts will be the catalyst for a swift Demon turnaround. Three selections in the first 21 picks will give the team scope and flexibility to develop greater depth and balance to his list of players. The club will kick the day off with a real beauty in Masten who will get the nod just ahead of Palmer. For the record, I had Masten well ahead of Morton, Cotchin and Palmer before the National Under 18 Championships and I have not veered from this view although Palmer's improvement was a real surprise to me. On that basis, I think there should be no danger at all with this selection apart from the "go home" factor. The Demons will have to deal with that one by making the youngster feel at home in his new environment.

Here’s a film clip from Fox News of the young man himself – CHRIS MASTEN

In Part Two, Stevo looks at Picks 14 and 21 and has a bit of a go at the rest of our selections.