CLOSE ENCOUNTERS by The Oracle

Recent meetings between Melbourne and Carlton have developed a striking and somewhat familiar narrative, underscored by a series of closely contested encounters ultimately decided by narrow margins. The Blues have won out on each of the past four occasions:- 

• Saturday, 19 July 2025 (Round 20) – Carlton 12.6 (78) defeated Melbourne 10.10 (70) at the MCG (attendance: 40,869)

• Thursday, 9 May 2024 (Round 10) – Carlton 12.5 (77) defeated Melbourne 11.10 (76) at the MCG (attendance: 58,472)

• Friday, 15 September 2023 (Semi Final) – Carlton 11.7 (73) defeated Melbourne 9.17 (71) at the MCG (attendance: 96,412)

• Saturday, 12 August 2023 (Round 22) – Carlton 9.6 (60) defeated Melbourne 8.8 (56) at the MCG (attendance: 68,577)

Across these four matches, witnessed collectively by more than a quarter of a million pairs of eyes (give or take a few one-eyed fans), Carlton has emerged victorious by a combined margin of just 15 points. A consistent theme has been Melbourne’s inefficiency in front of goal contrasted with Carlton’s clinical finishing, often at decisive moments. This pattern has proven costly for the Demons, turning otherwise competitive performances into narrow defeats.

I wish I knew what it is about Melbourne that turns an otherwise incompetent Carlton combination into a team with the freakish ability to slot through goals from every angle and any distance from goal on the one or two occasions in a season when they come across us?

Turning to the present, both sides enter their upcoming clash at the MCG on Sunday afternoon with identical early-season records of one win and one loss. Carlton opened their campaign with a heavy defeat against Sydney before narrowly accounting for Richmond by four points in a performance that was far from convincing. 

Melbourne, by contrast, began strongly with a win over St Kilda but faltered on the road against Fremantle, where they conceded a seven-goal deficit by quarter time and were unable to recover despite a brief resurgence in the second quarter.

With both teams seeking to build momentum and avoid slipping behind in the early stages of the season, this match presents a timely opportunity for redemption. Given the recent history between the two clubs, another tightly contested encounter looms, with execution - particularly in front of goal -once again expected to play a decisive role.

Melbourne supporters should be under no illusions about where their team currently stands. After undergoing a much-needed overhaul - both structurally and culturally - the Demons are still a work in progress and not yet at the level of last week’s opposition who are eyeing a top four finish.

This week presents a different challenge altogether, with the outcome likely to hinge on each side’s approach and, crucially, who can seize the early momentum. Melbourne’s slow starts this season have been a concern and this will be also the case against a Carlton side that has consistently begun games strongly. A good start is crucial here.

The Demons will again rely on the elite service of Max Gawn, their star ruckman and skipper, who celebrates his 250th game this week, alongside veteran defender Tom McDonald, who is expected to provide valuable support in the ruck. However, Melbourne’s success will depend on more than just its key pillars. The team’s other match-winners must step up.

Kysaiah “Kozzy” Pickett has had a relatively quiet start to the season by his standards, and the Demons will be looking to his speed, pressure, and creativity both in the middle of the ground and also, to spark their forward line. His ability to generate excitement and scoreboard impact could be crucial in helping Melbourne take early control and put pressure on a Carlton side that hasn’t covered the off-season loss of some of their star players, notably Curnow and De Koning and struggled to close out games, particularly in second halves.

A return to home conditions, combined with the forecast milder weather, should suit Melbourne’s evolving, faster style of play. Carlton, by contrast, still appears reliant on a heavily contested approach - one that has served them well in their  recent history but it may not be sufficient to contain Steven King’s new dynamic and transitional game plan.

Melbourne will be confident of returning to the winners’ list if it can start strongly and sustain its intensity across four quarters. If that happens, it might not even be that close an encounter.

Melbourne by 28 points.

THE GAME

Carlton v Melbourne at the MCG Sunday 29 March 2026 at 3.15pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Carlton 121 wins Melbourne 97 wins Drawn 2

At The MCG Carlton 54 wins Melbourne 56 wins

Past five meetings Carlton 4 wins Melbourne 1 win

The Coaches Voss 0 wins King 0 wins

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Carlton 12.6.78 defeated Melbourne 10.10.70 in Round 19 2025

The Blues got the jump early and with their accuracy in front of goal and a break out performance from Ashton Moir, they were able to just hold out the Demons.

THE TEAMS (to be loaded when available)

CARLTON 

MELBOURNE

Injury List: Round 3

Aidan Johnson — knee / 1-2 weeks 

Daniel Turner — hand / 2-3 weeks 

Matthew Jefferson — foot / 2-4 weeks 

Luker Kentfield  — knee / 2-4 weeks

Shane McAdam — Achilles / 2-4 weeks

Kalani White — glandular fever / 2-4 weeks

Jake Bowey — foot / 6-8 weeks 

Tom Campbell — neck / TBC

Jack Viney — Achilles / TBC