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[Demonland 73,140]

by The Oracle

Saturday night's game between Melbourne and Brisbane will be an historic occasion. Hopefully, it will be the last time ever that Melbourne hosts the Lions at their own home ground. For half a decade the Demons have defied that old slogan about never giving a sucker an even break by doing that and more. They have given up valuable home ground advantage to a rival club from interstate for thirty pieces of silver or some near modern day equivalent.

This week's game is between the 13th and the 15th placed sides in the competition which suggests they are both evenly matched and therefore home ground advantage must be considered significant in these circumstances. Unfortunately, money talks all languages and, as a consequence, it's been a matter of financial survival ahead of on-field results for the Demons. Thankfully, this situation will soon be a thing of the past and Melbourne will never have to call The Gabba "home" again.

The lowly placing of the competing teams and their poor win/loss records also suggest that this contest is unlikely to create much interest among the general football public. However, that changed significantly in the past week or so with both clubs recording dramatic wins at their last up starts.

The Brisbane Lions produced what you would have to call a rare coup these days for coach Leigh Matthews. His team took advantage of the Eagles' apparent cockiness and the brouhaha surrounding the selection/non-selection of Ben Cousins to give their hosts a real mauling on their home turf at Subiaco. To my mind, the Lions played the game and the ground in the way that former Melbourne coach Neale Daniher might have envisaged at the beginning of the year when he tried to instill the "run and carry" formula into his team. What Matthews did better however, was that he ensured his charges maintained constant pressure on the Eagles. It started in their midfield and consequently the pressure was maintained all around the ground. In this way the Lions managed to starve the West Coast forward line where they were perceived to have weaknesses. The ploy worked and now the Lions deserve their heavy favouritism to make it two in a row against the Dees.

But Melbourne also had a rare victory at the weekend, even if it wasn't against such an illustrious opponent as the reigning premier. Indeed, the Demons won their game against a pitiful Carlton combination bereft of its three most influential players Nick Stevens, Lance Whitnall and the erratic and the unpredictable Brendan Fevola. Of course the Demons also had a cast of thousands missing from the game. They were without names like Neitz, Johnstone, Bartram. Bell, Bruce, Green, Moloney, Pickett, Rivers and Yze leaving them with one of the youngest and most inexperienced teams to run out on the MCG in recent years. To their credit, they rose to the occasion and came home with the points for new coach Mark Riley and recorded their highest score for the year along the way.

I have a good feeling about this game and I say that without even consulting my crystal ball. The logic behind my thinking is that the Lions' victory was so unexpected in an otherwise barren year that it has been magnified into what was virtually the club’s grand final victory for 2007. What usually follows such occasions is one gigantic let down. That is exactly what I predict for the Lions on Saturday night.

THE GAME

Melbourne v. Brisbane at the Gabba, Saturday, July 14, 7.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 17 wins Brisbane 12 wins

At the Gabba Melbourne 5 wins Brisbane 8 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 3 wins Brisbane 4 wins

The Coaches Riley 0 wins Matthews 0 wins

MEDIA:

TV - Foxtel Channel 1 @ 7:00pm

RADIO - ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $2.40 Brisbane to win $1.50

LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 14.14.98 defeated Brisbane 13.12.90, Round 14, 2006, at the Gabba

It was a lacklustre game and the Demons couldn't get out of first gear as they struggled against a Brisbane combination that was inspired by full forward Daniel Bradshaw's damaging work in front of goal. The Lions' spearhead finished with 8 goals and was virtually unbeatable on the night. Melbourne surged a number of times and it took some Davey magic to steady the ship and see the Demons home by 8 points in an unconvincing display. The game will also be remembered for the way Mal Michael nonchalantly booted the ball right through Melbourne's goals to concede a point even though he could easily have cleared the ball the other way.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Daniel Ward Nathan Carroll James Frawley

Half backs Lynden Dunn Clint Bizzell Nathan Brown

Centreline Paul Wheatley James McDonald Cameron Bruce

Half forwards Simon Godfrey Russell Robertson Aaron Davey

Forwards Colin Sylvia Brad Miller Matthew Bate

Followers Jeff White Brock McLean Nathan Jones

Interchange Simon Buckley Chris Johnson Paul Johnson Michael Newton

Emergencies Colin Garland Ben Holland Brent Moloney

In Cameron Bruce

Out Ricky Petterd (punctured lung)

BRISBANE

Backs Robert Copeland Daniel Merrett Jason Roe

Half backs Jed Adcock Josh Drummond Jared Brennan

Centreline Tim Notting Nigel Lappin Cheynee Stiller

Half forwards Joel Macdonald Jonathan Brown Troy Selwood

Forwards Michael Rischitelli Matthew Leuenberger Joel Patfull

Followers Jamie Charman Simon Black Luke Power

Interchange Will Hamill Rhan Hooper Ashley McGrath Wayde Mills

Emergencies Richard Hadley Scott Harding Cameron Wood

In Ashley McGrath

Out Colm Begley (shoulder)

MATCHING UP

I wanted to look at this game in the traditional way by considering some of the possible match ups. I started with the man who I believe to be the most influential player on both sides - Brisbane's Jonathan Brown. The Demons have no obvious match up and the prospect of the Lions' key power forward breaking loose at the Gabba is frightening. Centre half back Jared Rivers has already been ruled out for the season while Nathan Carroll suffered a bout of concussion last week as a result of that courageous mark in the last quarter. His chances of playing were 50:50 earlier in the week so he is an unlikely starting match up. I guess that leaves our old ever-reliable Clint Bizzell who was back with a vengeance in a most timely manner. He produced a strong performance last week with 22 touches and 15 marks. It would be wishful thinking to expect him to deliver such a wonderful set of figures against Brown but if he can keep up his form we are certain to be treated to an interesting duel in the Brisbane forward line.

Staying with the big men, the contest in the ruck between Jamie Charman and Jeff White looms as another one of significance. Last week White blitzed in the ruck against Carlton but the Blues' midfielders sharked enough of his hit outs to win the clearance statistics. A recurrence of that this week is an awesome prospect to consider given that the opposition midfield boasts Nigel Lappin, Simon Black, Luke Power and co. Melbourne needs Brock McLean, who has endured some heavy tagging of recent weeks, to come back to his best form. James McDonald is sure to be his usual reliable hard tackling self and Nathan Jones will work hard in the packs. Simon Godfrey will probably take on Lappin or Black but the Dees will need to be at their very best here. The midfield duels, as always, be the key and the Demons are at a disadvantage with so many of their talented outside midfielders looking on from over the other side of the fence. However, they have some interesting youngsters standing by in the wings whose youthful exuberance and enthusiasm could surprise.

Melbourne will again be relying on the younger brigade to continue its improvement of recent weeks. Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn and Michael Newton are all starting to show something above the ordinary. The trio was recruited in the same draft and they played in the same team in an AFL game for the first time against Carlton last week giving them a 100% success rate together. I would suggest that this will be the first of many.

Speaking of a 100% success rate, let's not forget that Melbourne coach Mark Riley remains unbeaten as coach of the club. However, that statistic might not make up for the unevenness in experience when matching him up with rival coach Leigh Matthews who has been around for a long time and coached four premiership teams.

In the final analysis I'm going for the Demons to win because, as I suggested above, I believe that the effort from the Lions on the other side of the continent last week will have left them emotionally drained for this contest. They will return home to reality and succumb on Saturday night to an enthusiastic young Melbourne team by 10 points.