Having convincingly defeated last year’s premier and decisively outplayed the runner-up with 8.2 in the final quarter, nothing epitomized the Melbourne Football Club’s performance more than its 1.12 final half, particularly the eight consecutive behinds in the last term, against a struggling St Kilda team in the midst of a dismal losing streak. 

Just when stability and consistency were anticipated within the Demon ranks, they delivered a quintessential performance marked by instability and ill-conceived decisions, with the most striking aspect being their inaccuracy in kicking for goal, which suggested a lack of preparation (instead of sleeping in their hotel in Alice, were they having a night on the turps) rather than a well-rested team. Let’s face it - this kicking disease that makes them look like raw amateurs is becoming a millstone around the team’s neck.

How could anyone reasonably expect Melbourne to defeat Collingwood in the traditional King’s Birthday clash on Sunday following that performance?

Mind you, I should add that I also watched the Magpies dominate the Hawks on Friday night, and based on that display, it was unlikely that I was going to predict an upset anyway. 

However, while I am pondering where Melbourne can win individual battles, and frankly, I am struggling to identify many such opportunities, I believe there might be a bright side.

I believe the team’s competitiveness hinges on Simon Goodwin’s ability to devise the right strategy and tactics to reverse last week’s debacle. He cannot rectify their kicking inaccuracy overnight, so he must ensure his players are psychologically prepared to regain their pre-Alice Springs mindset. If they can achieve this, Melbourne still has a chance, albeit an outside chance. 

Looking back two years to the equivalent 2023 fixture, the first of the modern day Kings Birthday clashes, Melbourne demonstrated the ability to match Collingwood’s aggression, even with inaccurate kicking, amassing 8 goals 18 behinds to the Pies’ 9.8.62. 

What has changed since then? 

Not much of significance, apart from each team acquiring new players and losing key personnel, including Maynard for Collingwood and Jack Viney for Melbourne. 

The Demons have undoubtedly suffered a setback with Viney’s broken hand, which would have been invaluable in countering the dynamic Magpie brothers Daicos and injecting some attacking aggression into the mix. 

In his absence, Melbourne must find alternative personnel and strategies to curb Collingwood’s midfield dominance, which often creates scoring opportunities for their goal-kicking specialists like Elliott and Mihocek, who collectively kicked 9.2 last week. Those statistics would undoubtedly have our forward line coaches salivating. 

Ultimately, it is not mission impossible for Melbourne as long as it can overcome the propensity for self-inflicted errors. It has the players to do it, provided its big guns in Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Clayton Oliver fire and if the May/Lever combination holds firm, but will they rise to the challenge? 

In the end, sentiment prevails over rationality. I expect Collingwood to win by 29 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Collingwood at the MCG Monday 9 June 2025 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD 

Overall Collingwood 156 wins Melbourne 85 wins 5 drawn
At the MCG Collingwood 88 wins Melbourne 64 wins 3 drawn
Last five meetings Collingwood 4 wins Melbourne 1 win
The Coaches McCrae 5 wins Goodwin 1 win 

LAST TIME THEY MET

Collingwood 15.13.103 defeated Melbourne 8.9.57 at the MCG in Round 23 2024

The season ended in a shambolic performance from a team that appeared uninterested and lacking in any inspiration and, to add insult to injury, it lost Kozzy Pickett for the first three weeks of the season to follow through suspension. The best thing to happen was the break through lightning which sent many Demon fans to the warmth of their homes early. A fitting end to a disappointing season.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE 

B J. Bowey, S. May, C. Salem

HB J. McVee, J. Lever, T. Rivers

C K. Chandler, C. Petracca, X. Lindsay

HF E. Langdon, J. van Rooyen, B. Fritsch

F J. Melksham, H. Petty, K. Pickett

FOLL M. Gawn, C. Oliver, T. Sparrow

I/C B. Howes, H. Langford, K. Tholstrup, D. Turner, C. Windsor

EMG J. Culley, M. Jefferson, H. Sharp

IN B. Howes, K. Tholstrup, J. van Rooyen

OUT A. Johnson (suspended), B. Laurie (omitted), H. Sharp (omitted)

COLLINGWOOD 

B J. Howe, B. Frampton, J. Daicos

HB H. Perryman, D. Moore, I. Quaynor

C J.  Crisp, S. Sidebottom, E. Allan

HF B. Hill, D. McStay, B. McCreery

F J. Elliott, B. Mihocek, T. Membrey

FOLL D. Cameron, N. Long, N. Daicos

I/C W. Hayes, W. Hoskin-Elliott, D. Houston, S. Pendlebury, L. Sullivan

EMG T. Mitchell, W. Parker, O. Steene

IN W. Hayes, D. McStay

OUT P. Lipinski (concussion), L. Schultz (hamstring)

Injury and Suspension List: Round 13

Marty Hore — calf / available 

Aidan Johnson — suspended / 2 weeks 

Jack Viney  — hand / TBC

Charlie Spargo — scapula/ 4 - 5 weeks 

Shane McAdam — Achilles / next season

Andy Moniz-Wakefield — knee / next season

Next 4 games will see exactly where we are.on a positive note,the draft on kids have been super but our key position players are 30+,Maysie,Melky,McDonald then we have one knee injury away(Gawn) from no ruckman and glass ankles Lever and then also 3 more yrs of Viney,there is not much coming through the VFL.lose the next 4 games and we might as well see who can play AFL from Casey