UNBACKABLE by The Oracle

[Demonland 73,324]

They’re billing the Brisbane Lions as a sleeping giant — the best team outside the top eight —and based on their form this month they’re a definite contender for September AFL action.

Which is not exactly the best of news if you happen to be Melbourne, the visiting team this week up at the Gabba. 

Even though they are placed ahead of their opponent on the AFL table, and they managed to stave off defeat in their last round victory over North Melbourne, this week’s visitors to the Sunshine State are attracting odds of close to $5.00 to win on sportsbet (I’m not encouraging you to gamble here). This is because the Demons remain at their lowest ebb since the early days of the Covid 19 pandemic and, to make matters worse, they are still haunted by the memory of the most recent encounter between the teams which saw their confidence shattered, their midfield mauled mercilessly.

Although the Lions enter the fray as strong fancies to win, it should not be forgotten that they have been flaky in 2024 and the fortress at the Gabba has not been as impregnable as it was in the past.

In addition, recent experience also warns against backing the favourite in contests between these two clubs. Brisbane won the 2022 Semi Final at the MCG after they were smashed by the Dees in the final round at the Gabba. When they met in Round 2 of 2023, they were underdogs again, but Max Gawn went down early and the lights of the Gabba went out for the Demons. The Lions were heavily favoured to win the replay later that season but were crushed in the final term. When the teams met at the G this year in Round 5, the Lions were still reeling from an 0 - 3 start to the season while the in-form Demons were almost unbackable having just taken care of business in Adelaide and look what happened!

Still, it’s quite a stretch to expect Melbourne to turn things around in its current situation. If the midfield debacle against Brisbane earlier in the season was problematic, then it looks grave now in the absence of Christian Petracca, the missing form of Clayton Oliver and the overall loss of a capacity to control the contest at stoppages and beyond.

There has been a little made about the sudden youthful appearance of the Demons’ lineup and that trend continues tomorrow night with the inclusion of a fifth debutant for the season in the form of Andy Moniz-Wakefield. He seems to have the ball on a string at VFL level but will find things harder in this company. While the youthfulness of the team augurs well for the future and is reminiscent of how Collingwood made its way back from the wilderness after playing in a grand final in 2018, in the short term, it means there’s some pain coming. 

This doesn’t altogether rule out the prospect of a victory for the Demons this week. The team has badly missed the presence of Jake Lever in defence after he hurt his knee early in the game against the Eagles in Perth and his return will have a major effect on the way the team performs. We kept getting assured that Christian Salem was good to go despite being subbed off with knee soreness on Saturday night but he was left out because of the injury. Pity, had he played, the team would have had its best defensive lineup on the field in two months. It still looks solid enough to control the Lions’ big men in attack.

While that’s only one of three lines on the ground, it’s a good start but there’s a lot of work to do and what coach Goodwin really needs is for his out of form stars to come out of their shells and perform for four quarters and not three as they did last week. If I recall, this is exactly what happened to such dramatic effect with a few of Brisbane’s stars in their round five meeting earlier this year.

However, I must be realistic. A win seems to be a bridge too far the way things have been going lately. The odds of Melbourne overcoming the home team’s momentum of recent weeks are not great and while I think that the Demons can make a fist of things on the road, with a tinge of regret, I’m tipping Brisbane to win by 28 points.

THE GAME

Brisbane Lions v Melbourne at The Gabba, Friday 28 June 2024 at 7.40pm

HEAD TO HEAD *

Overall: Brisbane Lions 25 wins Melbourne 30 wins 
At The Gabba Brisbane Lions 15 wins Melbourne 9 wins    
Last Five Meetings: Brisbane Lions 3 wins Melbourne 2 wins      
The Coaches Fagan 5 wins Goodwin 8 wins

* does not include Brisbane Bears or Fitzroy games

LAST TIME THEY MET

Brisbane Lions 12.10.82 defeated Melbourne 8.12.60 at The MCG, Round 5 2024

It was a disaster from very early in the game when the Demons lost Christian Salem through injury. The Demons missed Kozzie Pickett who was out suspended, and they lacked the spark to mount a comeback until the final quarter and, by then, it was too late.

THE TEAMS 

BRISBANE LIONS      

B D. Zorko, D. Joyce, R. Lester
HB C. McKenna, H. Andrews, B. Starcevich
C Z. Bailey, C. Rayner, J. Berry
HF C. Cameron, E. Hipwood, H. McCluggage
F C. Ah Chee, J. Daniher, L. Morris
FOLL O. McInerney, J. Dunkley, L. Neale
I/C  W. Ashcroft, K. Lohmann B. Reville, D. Wilmot SUB J. Fletcher 
EMG S. Brain, D. Fort, D. Robertson

IN W. Ashcroft, D. Joyce

OUT S. Brain (omitted), J. Payne (foot)

MELBOURNE

B J. Lever, S. May, J. McVee
HB A. Moniz-Wakefield, A. Tomlinson, T. Rivers
C A. Neal-Bullen, C. Windsor, K. Tholstrup
HF K. Chandler, H. Petty, E. Langdon
F K. Pickett, B. Fritsch, J. Van Rooyen
FOLL M. Gawn, J. Viney, C. Oliver
I/C T. McDonald, T. Sparrow, D. Turner, T. Woewodin SUB K. Brown
EMG M. Jefferson, B. Laurie

IN J. Lever, A. Moniz-Wakefield, S. Woewodin 

OUT K. Brown (omitted), B. Howes (omitted), C. Salem (knee)

Injury List: Round 16

Jake Lever — knee / available
Lachie Hunter — calf / available
Marty Hore  — calf / 1 week
Jake Melksham  — knee / 1 - 2 weeks
Will Verrall — concussion / 1 - 2 weeks
Ben Brown — knee / TBC
Charlie Spargo — Achilles / TBC
Christian Petracca — spleen / indefinite