LEADERS OF THE PACK by The Oracle

[Demonland 73,465]

I was asked to write a preview of this week’s Round 8 match between Melbourne and Geelong. The two clubs have a history that goes right back to the time when the game was starting to become an organised sport but it’s the present that makes the task of previewing this contest so interesting.

Both clubs recently reached the pinnacle of the competition winning premiership flags in 2021 and 2022 respectively, but before the start of this season, many good judges felt their time had passed - neither was regarded as a major challenger for this year's flag and particularly not so the Cats.

Geelong’s form late in 2023 was abysmal while Melbourne was ushered out of the finals in straight sets for the second time in as many years. The conventional wisdom was that the season belonged to last year’s Grand Finalists, Collingwood and the Brisbane Lions. If not them, then last year’s late bloomers, GWS Giants and Carlton were the next in line for consideration as the leaders of the pack.

Who would have thought then, that seven rounds (okay, eight if you’re a Round Zero pedant) into the season, the Pies and Lions would be outside the top eight, the Cats would be resuscitated and sitting on top of the ladder at 7 zip, with the Demons, also undergoing something of a rejuvenation, in fourth spot?

Geelong has a healthy list and is in great form coming off a last start victory over another premiership contender Carlton in a blockbuster shootout at the MCG. That game followed a convincing  victory 2023 Grand Finalists Brisbane at the Gabba.

The Cats will therefore come into the game, chock full of confidence, especially after having the wood over Melbourne in their encounters since the 2021 Preliminary Final. They are settled, with many of their players in good form and the list appears to have few weaknesses. Some have reinvented themselves like Jeremy Cameron who has risen to another level in a slightly different role and speedster Max Holmes who recently celebrated his spectacular conversion from wing to half back by inking a four-year contract extension.

On the other hand, Melbourne has been in something of a rut since its successful sojourn in Adelaide a month ago. The apathy of its display against Brisbane was followed by a lacklustre first half against Richmond. Both performances were noteworthy for a substantially diminished output from the team’s acclaimed midfield ensemble.

On the strength of their recent tip-top form, Geelong should win this one. While things aren’t always so straightforward in our world of football, a lot of things have to go right for Melbourne to upset the ladder leaders.

For starters, a return of the big three in the midfield to their early season performance level. To win this week, they must get their act together.  A consistent performance from all of the forward line components for more than one or two quarters of the game would also help. Melbourne’s defence has remained on song throughout the season and can be relied upon to hold the barnstorming Cat attack to far less than the 18 goals they kicked against the Blues.

If Geelong had a weakness last week, it was in the way the defence leaked goals. Late in the game when Carlton made its last-minute desperate lunge, the Cats momentarily looked helpless to stop the flood in the shoot out. If Melbourne comes at the top of its game applying its defensive pressure, the Demons could cause them to drop their bundle.

I’m expecting them to lift for the big occasion to provide the fans with a insight into whether they are capable of mixing it in a top of the table contest with their mixture of maturity and new emerging talent.

The mission I was given was to tip with the head and not the heart so I’m leaning towards Geelong to prevail in a tough contest by 10 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Geelong at the MCG on Saturday 4 May 2024 at 7.30pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 88 wins Geelong 134 wins  2 draws
At the MCG Melbourne 53 wins Geelong 54 wins
The last five meetings Melbourne 2 wins Geelong 3 wins 
The Coaches Goodwin 4 wins Scott 7 wins

LAST TIME THEY MET

Geelong 11.12.78 defeated Melbourne 8.15.63 at GMHBA Stadium in Round 15 2023

The Demons were on a high, coming off a last start victory over the premiership favourites in the Kings Birthday blockbuster but they struggled to back it up with a repeat performance. Geelong grabbed the ascendancy early in the final term as it has often done on so many occasions at the Cattery.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B B. Howes, S. May, J. Lever
HB J. McVee, T. McDonald, T. Sparrow
C A. Neal-Bullen, C. Petracca, C. Windsor
HF J. Billings, B. Fritsch, K. Chandler
F K. Pickett, J. Van Rooyen, D. Turner
FOLL M. Gawn, J. Viney, C. Oliver
I/C E. Langdon, H. Petty, T. Rivers, T. Woewodin SUB B. Laurie 
EMG B. Brown, M. Hore, L. Hunter 

NO CHANGE

GEELONG

B J. Henry, S. De Koning, J. Kolodjashnij
HB Z. Guthrie, T. Stewart, M. Holmes 
C Z. Tuohy, T. Atkins, M. Blicavs 
HF B. Close, J. Cameron, G. Miers 
F T. Stengle, T. Hawkins, O. Henry 
FOLL R. Stanley, C. Guthrie, T. Bruhn 
I/C J. Bowes, J. Clark, O. Dempsey, M. Duncan SUB G. Rohan
EMG S. Neale, M. O’Connor, B. Parfitt

IN J. Clark, G. Rohan, T. Stewart

OUT P. Dangerfield (hamstring), O'Connor (managed), B. Parfitt (managed)

Injury List: Round 8 

Jake Bowey — shoulder / 1 week
Christian Salem — hamstring / 2 - 3 weeks   
Charlie Spargo — Achilles / 3 - 4 weeks
Jake Melksham  — knee / 6 - 8 weeks