Future of the AFL League - Divisional System 2050

[Future of Aussie Rules 18]

----------PROPOSAL FOR A DIVISIONAL AUSSIE RULES FOOTY LEAGUE --------------
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This thread is dedicated to the exploration of how the Free Market and Consensus Governance, can be applied to Australian Football to help it grow, become more dynamic and accessible to all Australians and potentially the world.

The AFL's revenue is $793M (pre covid), yet, they only distribute $314M to the clubs???
Where is all the money going?

The Divisional model proposed is inspired by the European Soccer model, rather than the American NFL fixed license system.

In regard to the hypothetical team table below, I have not included SANFL or WAFL teams, as those leagues are operating well, however, if say a Norwood or a Subiaco FC etc., can demonstrate sustainability as a participant, then they are welcome to enter the league from the lowest division, pending 51% consensus from participating clubs. This applies to any international or domestic club.

Details regarding the Constitution, Governance, Player Transfers & Distribution Rights are mentioned below the Divisional Tables;

The 12 side per division model, attempts to blur the line between the DIV1 and DIV2 to maintain audiences and revenue, whilst also appealing to our traditional formula of 12 teams, 22 rounds, where each side plays each other twice. 12 teams per division would also ensure closer contested games, as the gap between 1st and 12th is less than 1st and 18th, and eliminate ‘dead rubbers’.
         The battle for relegation, would also be seriously dramatic, enthralling supporters no matter where they sit on the ladder, resulting in increased audiences, sponsorship and revenues.

There is the option of 18 teams and 3 divisions, however, there is something more elegant, pure and intense about 12 teams per division, and keeps Div2 intrinsically connected to Div1. 
Div. 3&4 stretches out to a maximum cap of 23 teams per division, allowing for domestic and international growth.

Based on predicted future strength of the clubs (real & hypothetical), the divisional table below could represent what the league table could look like in 2050;

Hypothetic League Table 2050
Div. 1 
- 12 teams, 1 Premier, 5 finalists, 2 relegation

Richmond Tigers
Essendon Bombers
Adelaide Crows
West Coast Eagles
Collingwood Magpies
Sydney Swans
Carlton Blues
Brisbane Lions
Melbourne Demons
Fremantle Dockers
Geelong Cats
* Los Angeles - Privateer

Div. 2
12 teams, 1 Premier, 5 finalists, 2 relegation, 2 promotion

Hobart Pirates
Western Bulldogs
St Kilda Saints
Canberra Federals
GWS Giants
*Las Vegas - Privateer
*London FC - Privateer
Perth Utd
Port Adelaide Power
Hawthorn Hawks
Gold Coast Suns
*Ireland Fighters - AFL Sponsored

 

Div. 3
12 teams, 1 Premier, 5 finalists, 4 relegation, 2 promotion

Darwin Crocs
* 3rd USA Team - Privateer
North Tasmania Devils - Launceston
Cairns Reefers - Privateer
North Melbourne Kangaroos
Bendigo Pioneers - Essendon Reserves
Fitzroy FC
Ballarat Utd - Collingwood Reserves
* Tokyo - Privateer
* Auckland - Privateer
Sunshine Coast - Brisbane Reserves
* Toronto - Privateer

Div. 4
23 teams, 1 Premier, 8 finalists, 0 relegation, 4 promotion

Southport Sharks
Alice Springs All Stars - NIAA Gov Funded
Albury Wodonga
Gippsland Power - Melbourne Reserves - Traralgon
Northern Rivers - GC Reserves - Lismore
Werribee Tigers - Richmond Reserves
* Cape Town - Privateer
Aspley Hornets
* Port Moresby - Privateer
Shepparton Utd - Carlton Reserves
Wagga Wagga - Canberra Reserves
Port Melbourne Boroughs
Bayside Dolphins - StKilda Reserves - Frankston Oval
Central Coast - Sydney Reserves - Newcastle/Gosford
* Vancouver - Privateer
Wollongong - GWS Reserves
Bunbury - Fremantle Reserves
* Fiji - Suva - FNPF funded
* Wellington NZ - Privateer
Geraldton Dingoes - WCE reserves
Warrnambool - Geelong Reserves
Horsham - Bulldogs Reserves
Mildura Murrays

nb. The teams listed are suggestions ONLY.
nbb. If further expansion continues, then Div3 grows to 23 teams, with the remainder in Div4.

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The Code shall be underpinned by a Football Constitution.

The laws of the game would be enshrined in a constitutional trust, with rule changes only to be amended by 75% consensus of participating clubs.

•    Two Clubs to be promoted and/or relegated from each division.
•    No Draft, Players will choose who they wish to play for.
•    No Salary Cap.
•    Player/Club Transfer Fees are encouraged, and act as a key factor in supporting junior football development, providing joiner and revenue streams for feeder clubs.
•    Final 5, series. Offering a distinct advantage to top spot.
•    Unlimited Player List Sizes.
•    Richer clubs may choose to field a stand alone reserves side and even junior development squads, but there is no rules on reserves players, who they play for or where supplementary players can be sourced from.
•    All clubs are responsible for their own revenue and welfare. Financial dispensation is dependent on voting rights consensus.
•    Season Fixture and broadcast rights to be negotiated via the clubs, broadcasters and ground representatives, based on 51% consensus of clubs (per division).
•    The AFL Administrators should hold the chair of Governance and act as administrators and facilitators of the League.

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Governance via weighted democratic consensus.

Strategic Decision Making concerning the League as a whole, is to be conducted via democratic consensus, with club votes weighted in favor of divisional strength, to prevent unfair financial redistribution.

•    The AFL Administration is structured as a corporation, and acts as the Chairman of the board, and is ONLY allocated a deciding vote if required.

•    The Participating Clubs are all allocate voting rights, weighted as per the table below;

Divisional specific decisions such as scheduling, are conducted with each divisional club entitled one vote per division, with the AFL Chair acting as the deciding vote if required.

Voting Rights for Entire League Decisions
AFL - Deciding Vote ONLY if required.
DIV 1 Clubs - 64 votes per club (total of 768 votes or 74% of total votes)
DIV 2 Clubs - 16 votes per club (total of 192 votes or 19% of total votes)
DIV 3 Clubs - 4 votes per club (max total of 48 votes or 5% of total votes) or 2 votes per club if Div3 expands to 23 teams
DIV 4 Clubs - 1 vote per club (max total of 23 votes or 2% of total votes)

TOTAL OF 1031 votes

Under this method, it would take only 9 x Div1 clubs to gain a majority vote of the league, and 8 x Div1 clubs + 1 x Div3 club to gain majority. This is to limit the chances of league equalization policies.
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BROADCAST RIGHTS & ATTENDANCE ESTIMATES for the year 2030Link to the a more detailed debate on the issue of a Divisonal Football League

In an open free market, Enormous energy would be injected into the game. Elite players would be attracting $15M transfer fees and annual salaries of approx. $5M p/a transforming them into mainstream celebrities. Add the inclusion of privateer clubs and flamboyant billionaire owners and the drama of promotion & relegation, with all major football cities/regions in Australia involved, one would expect broadcast rights to increase in value.

Broadcast Revenue and attendance estimates are based on;
- A pattern of historical revenue growth of about 40% over 5 years
- Increase of games from 207 to 570 (excluding pre-season)
- Exclusive DIV2 Thursday, Sunday & Monday night football
- Exclusive DIV2 Later Friday & Saturday night Football (start at 8:30pm EST), with DIV1 Fri & Sat starting at 7:15pm, creating carry on viewing, albeit, a channel switch.
- Night Grand Final and Finals campaign of Div3/4 would attract a Considerable National Audience
- Div3/4 DIV3/4 broadcast revenue would be underpinned by area specific TV and radio advertising.

Increased energy in the game due to;
- Open Free Market system
- No-restriction on player movement, where transfer fees could reach $15M per superstar
- Genuine Sports Celebrity Superstars with elite player payments to reach $5M p/a.
- Increase of games and teams from 18 to about 50, with the inclusion of most football cities and regions in Australia
- The probable entry of the Billionaire business class, as buyers of private teams.
- Injection of Promotion/Relegation into the League
- Possible expansion into International Markets and Global Exposure

The Distribution of Broadcast Rights falls under democratic governance, and the following suggestions could be made and agreed to by the National League of Clubs, for example, by 2025, broadcast rights  for an open divisional domestic competition could be;

DIV1 broadcast rights (approx. $446M p/a)
- 75% ($334M) gets distributed to the 12 x Div1 clubs = $28M each. Currently they are getting about $17M each.
- 25% ($111M) gets distributed amongst the remainder 36 Clubs = $3M each

DIV2 Broadcast rights (approx. $233M p/a)
- 75% ($175M) gets distributed to 12 x Div2 clubs = $15M ($18M total each). Currently each AFL team gets about $17M each.
- 25% ($58M) gets distributed to 24 x Div3/4 clubs = $2.4M each.

DIV3 Broadcast rights (approx. $25M p/a)
- 75% ($18M) gets distributed to 12 x Div2 clubs = $1.5M ($7M total each). Currently each AFL team gets about $17M each.
- 25% ($6M) gets distributed to 12 x Div4 clubs = $500K each.

DIV4 Broadcast rights (approx. $5M p/a)
- 100% gets distributed to 12 x Div4 clubs = $400K ($6M total each). Currently each AFL team gets about $17M each.

Example Distribution of broadcast revenue
DIV1 clubs - $28M each - compared to now $17M each
DIV2 clubs - $18M each
DIV3 clubs - $7M each
DIV4 clubs - $6M each

OR

Each game could be auctioned to the open market of broadcasters, with revenue going directly to the participating clubs, pending consensus from the 12 clubs per division in relation to fixture scheduling.

Expected avg. club revenue from Broadcast Rights without League equalization;
DIV1 clubs - $37M each - compared to now $17M each
DIV2 clubs - $19.5M each
DIV3 clubs - $2.1M each
DIV4 clubs - $380k each

By 2050, international privateer teams would be incorporated, and based purely on the quality and entertainment value of our product, there is no reason why Australian Rules Football can’t capture a global audience, global corporate sponsorship and globally revenue.

The laws of capitalism shows us that in an unrestrained free market, it is usually the best product that rise to supremacy. Our game is the most dynamic and all encompassing full contact football code in the world, and it is only the restrictive fixed license structure of the AFL which is holding us back. We must open our league to not only the Australian market, but the global market, for it is only a matter of time, if allowed, that a privateer enters a footy team in London, Japan, NZ or the USA.

The estimated table below is for the year 2025, detailing expected broadcast and gate attendances revenue (which absorbs membership revenue).

 

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GRASS ROOTS DEVELOPMENT & PLAYER TRANSFER FEES

The health, development and growth of junior football would be better served, if player transfer fees were approved by the AFL.
For example, in the absence of a draft, AFL clubs of all Divisions, would have to either;
1. Create their own junior teams and develop players 'inhouse' for recruitment
2. Align with other feeder clubs, which would help foster recruitment, in a mutually beneficial two-way relationship, strengthening the junior development leagues.
3. Buy contracted players from Other clubs, which would involve club transfer fees, thus, Dispersing funds from the AFL to the grassroots clubs.
4. Players not contracted may join an AFL club of their choice, without transfer fee.

As there is no draft, it is in an AFL clubs best interests to help develop the promote football at a junior level, and create pathways for recruitment to their own clubs. This would create joiner between the AFL clubs and the junior leagues, fostering co-operation, collaboration, resilience and growth.

For example;
1. St Kilda FC aligns themselves with Junior Football Clubs along the Bayside corridor, offering their senior players to host junior training and so on. St Kilda FC, subsequently invite the best junior footballers to participate in their U16 & U18 squads, which then play in an elite Melb Metro junior league.
Remember, players have free choice, so even if a player is within the StKilda zone, but he loves MFC, then if good enough, he would most likely ask to join MFC U16/18 squad, however, if the junior football clubs have contracted that junior player (which would become standard), then the MFC would have to offer the Junior Football Club a transfer fee, which is negotiated under free market principles.

2. Shepparton FC is playing DIV4 in the National Comp, and has been developing a local kid called Clayton Oliver. Oliver starts playing seniors as a 16 year old, and quickly stamps himself as a potential future star of the entire National Competition. Offers start to come in for Oliver to join one of the Super Clubs, but in the interests of Oliver’s development, his family and Shepparton FC convince him to hone his craft in Div4, and try to help his home club Shepparton rise up the ladder.
So Shepparton sign him up for $800k/5 year contract until he is 22years old, with the condition that he does promotion work for a the main club sponsor. He is a local star and hero and help Shepparton win a DIV4 premiership and rise to Div3. Broadcasters are now bidding for the rights to televise his games. Just like Rowan (GC), the audience are tuning in just to watch a young local star. The auctioning of these broadcast rights go directly into the coffers of the participating clubs which further enhances the importance of the junior development pathway, which led to this windfall.
At the end of the 5yr contract, he is arguably ready to become one of the best players in the entire country, so clubs start laying down massive offers. Melbourne FC offer $20M/5 year contract with a $15M transfer fee to Shepparton. All parties are happy, and he leaves.
Shepparton then uses $15M to better resource their club, junior development and entertainment complex to further build their business, in an attempt to sustain Div3 and potentially rise to Div2, where the big TV broadcast rights start to happen.
This is how I see the free market working in football.

In contrast to our current system.
1. Elite junior player is told that he is good enough to be drafted, but the only way in Vic, is to leave his junior club and join a stale and cultureless TAC U18 club competition.
2. Player enters draft and is told which club he is to play for, without his say, and on the terms of the AFL.
3. Junior clubs get raped, and the AFL creates a wall of division between AFL clubs and Vic junior clubs.

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International Opportunity

Based on the quality of our game, with a highlights reel second to none, our game has the opportunity to spread around the world as the greatest full-contact football code on earth. However, we must have a structure which allows overseas privateer teams to enter our league, in a manner which allows potential teams to grow and compete in a sustainable manner, and only an open divisional structure can make this vision possible.

Example 1.
The Irish have played a big part in our game and the synergy with Gaelic Football is highlighted by the traditional international rules series.

Again, let's say via club consensus, that the AFL earmark $10M p/a for 5 years to fund a Div4 entry from Ireland, called, Ireland Fighters, playing out of Dublin.

The local Irish Gaelic competition would unwillingly provide a bulk of the players for the new team, supplemented with some established AFL players.
As the Gaelic League is amateur, many of the premium talent would switch codes to the new lucrative offering, strengthening the team, and attracting considerable local attention, both positive and negative. As a result, audience and attendances are strong from the outset, even from their inception at Div4 level.

The Ireland Fighters quickly excel, and win the Div4 Premiership in their second season, get promoted and quickly progress to Div3 finals, where support and interest accelerates. They win the Div3 premiership and launch into the bigtime in Div2, hosting home games against say club's like Stkilda, Collingwood & Carlton (as it stands) and playing away games in Aus. coinciding with primetime viewing in the pubs in Ireland.

The fighting Irish are called the Ireland Fighters for a reason, and within 10 years in the AFL competition, they win a Div2 premiership, and backed by hundreds of thousands of local Irish as well as tens of thousands of international expats, the Ireland Fighters make their entry to Div1 as a potential superclub.

all while, the folk in London who are well familiar with Footy, look on with admiration and interest, and plans are drawn up to fund a new London entry to join the competition.

Example 2;
Let's say extraordinarily, that Melbourne born Chris Hemsworth, decides to float a footy club in LA called the Los Angeles Stars, with a long-term strategic plan to get them playing AFL Div1 in 20 years. Obviously, a Div1 team from LA would add an extra dimension to our revenue stream and potentially create enormous international exposure, and really kickstart the game in the USA.

The LA Stars do a home ground deal with LA Coliseum and allocates an annual $15M budget to the enterprise.
$750k p.a travel budget (4week trips to Aus.) and $8M annual player payments and local player development. 50% expenditure is covered by commercial/ DFAT sponsorship and broadcast rights, with a long term vision toward Div1/2 broadcast revenue and 10 year plan toward profitability.

Twilight games are scheduled in LA, giving us live viewing in Vic at 10:30am Sunday morning. Of course we tune in, because of the huge ramifications of a successful US based team.

Many older champions like say Dustin Martin, Buddy Franklin, Eddie Betts, Nathan Jones, Kade Simpson, Heath Shaw etc., are drawn to LA, along with a very well paid 28 man squad, and a sprinkling of local US talent which grows in quality and size as the team moves forward.

Hypothetically, based on the player payment budget, the LA Stars win the Div4 Premiership in their third season, still with little interest in LA, but plenty of interest and industry support in Australia.

Into their fourth season (now in Div3), they are starting to build a quality field of local US athletes, and there is no shortage of quality Aussie players willing to give life a go in LA, rubbing shoulders with Hemsworth and A list Hollywood celebrities which have been attracted to our ancient indigenous football spectacle.

After their 7th season, the LA Stars win the Div3 premiership, and are promoted to Div2 where they are now on the big stage. The local player development program is working, with US players sized like LeBron James providing a freakish highlights reel. The local audience starts tuning in and attending games. It's Game On!!!!!!

The hypothetical success of LA Stars would invite interest for other US and Canadian private teams.

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Possible Rules Changes
1. In order to speed up the game and make it more dynamic, maybe (just like the VFA did in 1938), we could allow players to throw the ball, which would create joiner with Rugby and Gridiron codes.
2. Reduce the length of the field by 10m and on field players to 16, with international grass roots player development encompassing 9 players per side on soccer/rugby sized pitches.
3. Create player substitution rule (similar to soccer). Once subbed off, the player can not re-enter the game. 5 players on the bench. This rule would stimulate the requirement for Power Based athletes, more so than the 5 minute endurance runner.

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Summary

History shows us that the free market is the most resilient and effective method of sustained growth, contingent to the quality of the product.
And arguably, Aussie rules is the most dynamic, interesting and most stimulating football code in the world. Our highlight reel is second to none. Our product is that good, that the free market alone, will drive it to become globally successful. All we need is a model which allows organic growth into not only all regions of Australia, but eventually the world.

An open divisional structure offers the organic scope for growth and regional representation that an engineered system can not deliver as effectively.

Is it time to look for a new model, based on Western Cultural Principles, so 'Footy' can truly reach its potential?
Tony Pecora
The Future of Aussie Rules

Aussie Rules 2050