FRIDAY ON MY MIND by The Oracle

[Demonland 72,185]

Friday evening will see a watershed event in the Melbourne Football Club’s quest for back to back premierships. A loss will almost certainly see the team plummet out of the top four and most likely set up a difficult encounter with the Tigers but a win will leave the team safely within the top four for the second successive season.

The concern is that the team has barely been at the top of its game over recent months with only two high class performances since its 17 game winning streak ended in late May; the outlier games being against Brisbane in Round 15 and Fremantle in Round 20. Last week’s effort when it squeaked home with fifteen seconds to spare was its first against a Victorian team since its win over wooden spoon favourite North Melbourne.

The Lions’ form has been nothing to write home about either — they’ve dropped their fair share of matches recently and were unimpressive in beating the Saints in their last outing. A little over a month ago, they lost to Essendon at their home fortress, the Gabba. It’s a little surprising therefore that they’re favoured by the bookmakers to win a game against a team that has been fancied by them all season.

In any event, neither side is in sparkling form and this leads me to the view that this is really an unpredictable contest — the outcome of which could well be decided by which club turns up to play on the night.

And if that’s the case then I’m swayed into thinking that the team more likely to finish inside the top four at the end round is Melbourne. The reason is that the Demons have the advantage of the factor that has also played a role in its fall from outright leader of the pack to a potential finish outside the top four.

That factor is that the club has had to contend with a particularly tough draw in the second half of the season that has seen it come up against top eight teams nearly every week over that period. This means that the Demons have been subjected to high levels of pressure and intensity on a weekly basis which is the perfect preparation for any team on the cusp of a finals series. That has certainly not been the case with the Brisbane Lions (or a couple of the other more highly fancied contenders like Geelong who seem to come up against bottom teams who are itching to see the season’s end).

The other aspects that see the Demons as more likely to win is the tremendous midfield led by Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca and Jack Viney but with some powerful backup and the strong mature leadership of Max Gwan with Viney as his lieutenant. Then there’s the uber strong defence with great leadership from cool-headed Jake Lever, Steven May and Christian Salem. If the forwards stand up tall this week and exert maximum pressure, they should see their way into a Qualifying Final, probably against Sydney, either in Sydney or at home.

Melbourne by 25 points.

THE GAME

Brisbane Lions v Melbourne at Gabba, Friday 19 August, 2022 at 7.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD *

Overall: Brisbane Lions 22 wins Melbourne 28 wins At The Gabba Brisbane 14 wins, Melbourne 8 wins   Last Five Meetings: Brisbane Lions 1 win Melbourne 4 wins The Coaches: Fagan 2 wins Goodwin 6 wins

* does not include Brisbane Bears or Fitzroy games

MEDIA

TV live and on demand on Kayo and live on Foxtel. Check your local guides.

Radio - check your local guides.

LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 16.21.117 defeated Brisbane Lions 7.11.53 at The MCG, Round 15, 2022

The Demons responded to three consecutive defeats in the best way possible - by coming out full of intensity and venom. The midfield dominated and Luke Jackson played his best game for the season in the absence of skipper Max Gawn.

THE TEAMS

BRISBANE LIONS

B:  D.Gardiner 27 J.Payne 40 D.Rich 10
HB: B.Starcevich 37 H.Andrews 31 K.Coleman 18
C: Z.Bailey 33 D.Zorko 15 H.McCluggage 6
HF: C.Rayner 16 E.Hipwood 30 L.McCarthy 11
F: D.McStay 25 J.Daniher 3 C.Cameron 23
Foll: O.McInerney 46 L.Neale 9 J.Berry 7 
I/C: N.Answerth 43 J.Lyons 17 R.Mathieson 36 J.Prior 20
Sub: M.Robinson 5 Emerg: D.Fort 32 R.Lester 35 K.Lohmann 1

In: 

M.Robinson 

Out: R.Lester (omitted)

MELBOURNE 

B: H.Petty 35 J.Lever 8 J.Bowey 17
HB: T.Rivers 24 S.May 1 M.Hibberd 14 
C: J.Melksham 18 C.Oliver 13 E.Langdon 15
HF: T.Sparrow 32 B.Brown 50 B.Fritsch 31 
F: A.Neal-Bullen 30 L.Jackson 6 K.Pickett 36
Foll: M.Gawn 11 J.Viney 7 C.Petracca 5
I/C: A.Brayshaw 10 J.Harmes 4 J.Hunt 29 C.Spargo 9 
Sub: J.Jordon 23 Emerg: T.Bedford 12 J.Smith 44

In: 
J.Bowey 

Out: C.Salem (groin soreness)

Injury List: Round 23

Fraser Rosman - Hamstring | 1 Week
Andy Moniz-Wakefield - Groin | 1-2 weeks
Tom McDonald - Foot | 2-3 Weeks