DOWNFALL? by Whispering Jack

[Demonland 73,324]

Half a season ago, Saturday night’s Round 22 match up between Melbourne and Carlton would have been looked upon as a mouthwatering contest to determine positions at the top of the AFL mountain in the lead up to an exiting finals series for both clubs. However, this once much-anticipated contest is today considered almost as a consolation event between two of the most disappointing teams in the competition.

At least the Blues have some sort of excuse for their downfall — they have been dogged by injury throughout the second half of the season and now face the remaining home and away matches without some of their prime movers in the injured George Hewett and Matthew Kennedy. Their absence seemingly leaves a hole that is difficult to cover at this important juncture in the season but it's by no means insurmountable.

On the other hand, Melbourne’s woes stem from a lack of consistency from game to game and from within games. In recent times, the Demons have been able to monster the likes of Brisbane and then Fremantle at Optus Stadium but they have also seen matches where they have built strong leads only to be outrun in final quarters when the pressure of a tight match is turned on high.

The team that was dominant with ball in hand and regularly crushed opponents to come home with a wet sail in the 2021 final series has given up leads of 30 points against the Dockers, 26 vs the Swans, 22 and 23 against the Pies and 23 over the Dogs to regularly fall by the wayside. 

You simply can’t blame loading regimes and injuries for this pattern in matches, particularly when there appears to be such a sameness in which the team is selected and the way it routinely goes forward and fails to finish off in front of goals.

With all due respect to Bayley Fritsch, Ben Brown and Kozzy Pickett who have all been steady with their kicking for goal, the remaining forwards and on ballers going forward have failed to honour the hard work of the club’s magnificent midfield and to take advantage of the superior number of opportunities which they bring to the team.

The shameful statistics from last week when Melbourne went inside fifty on 65 occasions to Collingwood’s 41 tell the story. Conditions were slippery after the day’s rain but the Demons’ shooting accuracy within that arc was a poor 54% compared with 71% which also reflected an equally poor efficiency rate of 37% to 51%. All of which also suggests that the Pies’ strategy of attacking to the goal square trumped the predictable approach to the forward pocket of their opponents. Simon Goodwin’s faith in the tactic over the past three months must surely be wearing thin but will he/ can he change it to advantage at this late stage?

The Demons also face the danger of taking its wounded opponent too lightly. The absence of some of their better midfielders, combined with the Blues’ poor showing last week against the Lions might suggest that they are on their last legs after a long, hard campaign and that their young side is tiring fast. But think again, because last week Carlton managed to score eight final quarter goals in last ditch effort to salvage the game while Melbourne managed a mere three in the final half when a top two finish was on the line. Their problem will be one of focus after days of uncertainty and speculation about the availability of prime mover Patrick Cripps.

During the week, Jake Lever promised that the team was determined to prove that it had learned from the outcome of their game against the Pies. This is virtually their last chance to convince us and to prove they deserve to sit among the 2022 flag favourites.

I’m taking his word for it and picking Melbourne to win by 10 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Carlton at the MCG Saturday 13 August 2022 at 7.25pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 95 wins Carlton 117 wins Drawn 2

At the MCG Melbourne 54 Carlton 50 wins

Past five meetings Melbourne 5 Carlton 0 wins

The Coaches Goodwin 0 wins Voss 0 wins

MEDIA

TV live and on demand on Kayo and live on Foxtel. Check your local guides.

Radio - check your local guides.

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 13.16.94 defeated Carlton 10.8.68 at Marvel Stadium Round 9, 2021

The Demons dominated the game but just when the opportunity arose to crush their young opponents, their kicking for goal let them down. Max Gawn dominated with 44 hit outs.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B:T. Rivers 24 J. Lever 8 H.Petty 35
HB: T. Sparrow 32 S. May 1 J. Jordon 23
C: C. Salem 3 C  Oliver 13  E. Langdon 15
HF: A. Brayshaw 10 B. Fritsch 31 A. Neal-Bullen 30
F: C. Spargo 9 B. Brown 50 K. Pickett 36 
Foll: M. Gawn 11 J.Viney 7 C. Petracca 5
I/C:  M. Hibberd 14 J. Hunt 29 L. Jackson 7 J. Melksham 18 
Sub: J. Harmes 4 Emerg: B.Laurie 16  A. Tomlinson 20 J.Van Rooyen 21

No change

CARLTON 

B: A.Saad 42 J.Weitering 23 S.Docherty 15
HB: C.Marchbank 22 M.McGovern 11 L.Young 33
C: L.O'Brien 4 P.Cripps 9 J.Newnes 32
HF: Z.Fisher 25 H.McKay 10 J.Silvagni 1
F: M.Owies 44 C.Curnow 30 C.Durdin 19
Foll: M.Pittonet 27 W.Setterfield 43 S.Walsh 18
I/C: M.Cottrell 46 J.Martin 21 J.Motlop 3 L.Stocker 13
Sub: P.Dow 2 Emerg: T. De Koning 12 B.Kemp 17

In: M.Pittonet L.Stocker

Out: A.Cerra (adductor) T. De Koning (omitted) 

Injury List: Round 22

Fraser Rosman - Hamstring | 1-2 Weeks
Andy Moniz-Wakefield - Groin | 2-3 weeks
Tom McDonald - Foot | 3-5 Weeks

ANALYSE THIS AGAIN by Sam The Stats Man

Last time I did my analysis, the Demons’ list was looking as fit and strong as it was twelve months previously but a few injury scares tested the club for a month or so before a return to stability. As you can see from the injury list above, the club is going into good shape physically.

Mentally?

I’m not so sure.

1. Steven May MFC games 18, goals 0
3. Christian Salem MFC games 10, goal 1
4. James Harmes MFC games 16, goals 12
5. Christian Petracca MFC games 20, goals 16
6. Luke Jackson MFC games 18, goals 10
7. Jack Viney MFC games 18, goals 8
8. Jake Lever MFC games 15, goals 0
9. Charlie Spargo MFC games 20, goals 9
10. Angus Brayshaw MFC games 20, goal 1
11. Max Gawn MFC games 18, goals 11
12. Toby Bedford MFC games 16, goals 9, CD games 7, goals 11
13. Clayton Oliver MFC games 19, goals 3
14. Michael Hibberd MFC games 8, goals 2, CD games 2, goals 0
15. Ed Langdon MFC games 19, goals 9
16. Bailey Laurie CD games 15, goals 21
17. Jake Bowey MFC games 16, goals 2, CD games 2, goals 0
18. Jake Melksham MFC games 7, goals 6, CD games 8, goals 4
19. Fraser Rosman CD games 13 goals 0
20. Adam Tomlinson MFC games 9, goals 0, CD games 9, goals 0
21. Jacob Van Rooyen CD games 13, goals 28
22. Blake Howes CD games 5, goals 2
23. James Jordan MFC games 20, goals 7
24. Trent Rivers games 14, goals 2, CD games 5, goal 1
25. Tom McDonald MFC games 9, goals 15, CD game 1, goals 3
26. Sam Weideman MFC games 10, goals 13, CD games 6, goals 14
27. Luke Dunstan MFC games 5, goals 0, CD games 13, goals 11
28. Majak Daw ® CD games 8, goals 3
29. Jayden Hunt MFC games 15, goals 0, CD games 5, goal 1
30. Alex Neal-Bullen MFC games 19, goals 6
31. Bayley Fritsch MFC games 20, goals 45
32. Tom Sparrow MFC games 19, goals 6
33. Oskar Baker CD games 15, goal 1
34. Deakyn Smith ® CD games 14, goals 0
35. Harrison Petty MFC games 14, goals 0, CD game 1, goals 0
36. Kysaiah Pickett MFC games 19, goals 32
37. Kade Chandler ® MFC games 4, goals 0, CD games 14, goals 25
38. Mitch Brown ® MFC games 3, goals 2, CD games 11, goals 29
40. Taj Woewodin CD games 14, goals 6
41. Judd McVee ® CD games 15, goals 0
42. Daniel Turner MFC game 1, goals 0, ® CD games 6, goal 1
44. Joel Smith MFC games 5, goals 0, CD games 2, goals 0
45. Andy Moniz-Wakefield ® CD games 13, goals 10
50. Ben Brown MFC games 15, goals 25, CD game 1, goals 2