BEWARE OF HEADLINES by The Oracle

Posted April 14, 20223 yr

The headline screamed, “Be very afraid: Unbeaten Demons have huge scope for improvement”

The story was about David King’s warning to SEN listeners that “Melbourne is going at about 70 per cent of last year and they’re already proving they’re 50 per cent better than the rest of the competition”.

“They’re 4-0 and they’ve going half rat power.”

Whilst the reigning premiers are the only undefeated team in the competition, there are those who would ask the question, “who have they beaten to date?” The answer is teams that occupy positions 9,14,16 and 18 on the AFL ladder. But wait, three of those teams made the finals last year and two made it deep into September.

King’s bigger point however, is the one the headline overlooked. Melbourne remains the premier team in contested situations whether in the ruck, through on ballers or via the defence that wins the footy and attacks through the wings and into the forward part of the ground. That should, of itself, be daunting for the rest of the competition but whether the team can improve on that is something that may or may not happen and it doesn’t necessarily prove King’s central theme that the club is head and shoulders above the rest of the competition.

Beware of headlines is my response. Indeed, this sort of publicity is unrealistic and breeds complacency. The reality is that the Demons will lose a game at some time and in fact, that day is coming closer as every week goes by. The question is, when and against who?

That question might well depend on whether the team continues to remain focused on its aims or whether it starts to believe publicity like David King’s proclamation that the team is 50% above the level of the rest of the competition. Much of our game is played in the head and if the group starts believing that it’s invincible, then the inevitable will happen.

You only have to look at the Bulldogs of 2017 (or 2022 for that matter) or to Melbourne’s game against this week’s opponent, Greater Western Sydney, at their last encounter back in Round 16 last year at the MCG. The Demons were heavily favoured to win against the Giants who appeared to be on their last legs after stumbling in the final term against the lowly Hawks the week before. A fortnight earlier, they drew with wooden spooner North Melbourne. Yet, they were up to the fight against Melbourne and maintained the pressure throughout on the inaccurate Demons. The result was an upset.

I don’t believe that Greater Western Sydney who lost to Fremantle by 34 points at Optus Stadium last week will manage an upset and a third consecutive victory at the MCG over Melbourne but if the Demons think that it’s going to be a cakewalk because all of the commentators think they’re just too good, then they should park their swollen heads elsewhere.

I think that Melbourne will win this game but they need to attack the game fully switched on. I think they can do it and I’m tipping the Demons to win by 22 points.

THE GAME

Melbourne v GWS Giants at the MCG, Saturday 16 April, 2022 at 7:25pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall – Melbourne 8 wins GWS Giants 7 wins

At The MCG – Melbourne 4 wins GWS Giants 3 wins

Past five meetings – Melbourne 3 wins GWS Giants 2 wins The Coaches – Goodwin 3 wins Cameron 3 wins

THE MEDIA

TV live and on demand on Kayo and live on Foxtel. Check your local guides.

Radio - check your local guides.

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

GWS Giants 9.10.64 defeated Melbourne 7.13.55 at The MCG, Round 16, 2021

The Giants were on from the very first clearance of the day when they methodically moved the ball forward to Toby Greene who slotted the first goal after 30 seconds. After a brief respite later in the opening term, the Demons were chasing tail, wasting opportunities and kicking poorly at goal. GWS won the game despite losing the possession count, taking less marks, laying less tackles and going inside 50 less times.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: J.Hunt 29 S.May 1 H.Petty 35
HB: T.Rivers 24 J.Lever 8 J.Harmes 4
C: E.Langdon 15 C.Petracca 5 J.Viney 7
HF: A.Brayshaw 10 S.Weideman 26 A.Neal-Bullen 30
F: K.Pickett 36 L.Jackson 6 B.Fritsch 31
Foll: M.Gawn 11 C.Oliver 13 T. Sparrow 32
I/C: C.Spargo 9 J.Bowey 17 J.Jordon 23 T.McDonald 25
Sub: T.Bedford 12 Emerg: L.Dunstan 27 K.Chandler 37 J.Smith 44

In: H.Petty

Out: A.Tomlinson

GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY GIANTS

B: L.Keeffe 25 S.Taylor 15 X.O’Halloran 33
HB: L.Whitfield 6 N.Haynes 19 H.Perryman 36
C: A.Kennedy 40 C.Ward 8 L.Ash 7
HF: T.Taranto 14 H.Himmelberg 27 S.Coniglio 3
F: B. Hill 37 J.Hogan 23 M.de Boer 24
Foll: M.Flynn 30 J.Kelly 22 T.Green 12
I/C: J.Stein 42 T.Bruhn 5 C.Idun 39 F.Callaghan 17
Sub: 10 J.Riccardi Emerg: 26 J.Wehr 10 L.Aleer 21 K.Briggs 32

In F.Callaghan M.Flynn N.Haynes

Out I.Cumming (H & S Protocols) J.Peatling (omitted) B.Preuss (suspended)

Injury & Suspension List: Round 5