Jump to content

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Demonland

MURDER BY NUMBERS by Sam the Stats Man

By Demonland, in Match Previews

Recommended Posts

Demonland    14,915

Demonland
Posted

The respective ladder positions of this week’s combatants tell the story of one side on the rise and the other in steep decline. Since their most recent meeting which took place early last year, the Dees and the Lions have changed positions. They are opposed to each again on the former’s home turf with the locals in fine fettle after blowing St Kilda off the park at Marvel Stadium. 

The Lions’ home ground advantage has been a major consideration so far this year. They have won five out of six games there to date including fellow finals contenders in West Coast, Port Adelaide and Adelaide.
 
At first blush, this spells doom and gloom for the Demons. Their position would appear to be hopeless.  
 
But is that really the case?  
 
After all, in a game between the sixth placed Brisbane Lions and Melbourne third from last, the statistics most certainly do not tell the whole story.   
 
Head to head, the Demons lead their opponents in disposals, clearances, the inside 50 count, contested possessions, tackles and hit outs while they do lag behind in free kicks awarded. The Lions are way ahead in terms of accuracy while their visitors continue to concede majors like water through a sieve. On a weekly basis, their opposition manage feats of remarkably accuracy when kicking for goal.  
 
The commentariat are having a field day trying to deconstruct the phenomenon. It’s to do with fitness and conditioning, too many injuries to key players, lack of skills and technique, poor form, it’s all in the head, a loss of confidence, too slow or a combination of the above.    
 
And whilst Brisbane are playing for finals honours, Melbourne has little to play for but pride - a commodity that can quickly evaporate if things turn awry in the early stages of a game. With that in mind, it won’t take long to determine whether we have a game on our hands. The Demons will be relying on its midfield ability to win contests with Max Gawn feeding his on ball brigade and hoping that the good form last week of key position players Sam Frost, Steven May and Tom McDonald will again be enough to lift them to victory.
 
The problem I see is that there are no indication that Melbourne can turn around the season long pattern of murder by numbers in front of not only their own goal but that of their opposition and on that basis, I’m going for the Lions by 10 points.
 
THE GAME    
 
Brisbane v Melbourne at The Gabba Sunday, 30 June, 2019 at 3.20pm    
 
HEAD TO HEAD     
 
Overall  Brisbane 20 wins, Melbourne 25 wins 
  
At The Gabba Brisbane 13 wins, Melbourne 8 wins    
 
Last Five Meetings Brisbane 1 win, Melbourne 4 wins   
 
The Coaches Fagan 0 wins, Goodwin 2 wins  
 
MEDIA    
 
TV -  Channel 7, Fox Sports 3 Live at 3.00pm  
 
Radio - TBA
 
LAST TIME THEY MET    
 
Melbourne 14.16.100 defeated Brisbane 10.14.74 at the Gabba, Round 2, 2018    
 
After letting victory against Geelong slip through it grasp in Round 1, Melbourne again looked shaky when the Lions came back from a 42-point third-term deficit to level the scores in the fourth. It took some magic from Jeff Garlett who finished with four goals to allow the Demons to draw away and record their first win of the season. Jesse Hogan was in fine touch with five goals, 22 disposals and nine marks.  
 
THE TEAMS    
 
Screenshot_2019-06-27 Brisbane Lions Vs Melbourne - Match Centre - AFL com au.png

BRISBANE

B Luke Hodge Harris Andrews Daniel Rich
HB Alex Witherden Darcy Gardiner Noah Answerth
C Dayne Zorko Lachie Neale Lincoln McCarthy
HF Cam Rayner Eric Hipwood Mitch Robinson
F Charles Cameron Daniel McStay Zac Bailey
FOLL Stefan Martin Hugh McCluggage Jarryd Lyons
I/C Jarrod Berry Allen Christensen Ryan Lester Oscar McInerney    
EMG Ben Keays Corey Lyons Sam Skinner Brandon Starcevich

IN Zac Bailey Jarrod Berry

OUT Jacob Allison (omitted) Rhys Mathieson (omitted)

MELBOURNE

B Jay Lockhart Steven May Christian Salem
HB Nathan Jones Sam Frost Bayley Fritsch
C Oskar Baker James Harmes Angus Brayshaw
HF Jayden Hunt Tim Smith Christian Petracca
F Mitch Hannan Tom McDonald Sam Weideman
FOLL Max Gawn Jack Viney Clayton Oliver
I/C Michael Hibberd Marty Hore  Alex Neal-Bullen Harrison Petty
EMG Jordan Lewis Oscar McDonald Braydon Preuss Corey Wagner  

IN Michael Hibberd 

OUT Josh Wagner (omitted)

Injury List: Round 15  
 
Michael Hibberd (collarbone) – test 
Kade Chandler (hip) – test 
Jake Lever (knee) – 1-2 weeks 
Neville Jetta (knee) – 2-3 weeks 
Billy Stretch (foot) – 2-3 weeks 
Declan Keilty (ankle) – 3-4 weeks 
Jake Melksham (foot) – 4-6 weeks 
Tom Sparrow (knee) – 4-6 weeks 
Kade Kolodjashnij (head) – TBC 
Aaron vandenBerg (foot) – TBC 
Jeff Garlett (shoulder) – season 
Joel Smith (groin) – season 
Aaron Nietschke (knee) – season 
Guy Walker (shoulder) – indefinite 
 
PreviewRd152019.png

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0
Go To Topic Listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Social Media

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles

    RED AND BLUEPRINT 2019 by Whispering Jack

    The rusty red of the McDonnell Ranges and the blue skies above them provided the perfect backdrop that summed up everything about the Melbourne Football Club’s 2019 season. It set out the perfect red and blueprint for the club’s horror year. The club’s previous season was one of great promise but it ended in a calamitous way in Perth with an 11 goal defeat at the hands of the ultimate premiership side, the West Coast Eagles in a game where the Demons’ first goal came early in the third quar

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    WINDY DAY FOOTY by KC from Casey

    Windy day footy has always been the domain of those who play the game hard: on days when the breeze gusts all over the place and the ground has been sodden by recent rains, the player needs to get all aspects of his game together and be hard of body and mind, to concentrate and attack the football. The Casey Demons came out on their own deck in such conditions and under a mainly sunny sky and gave it a crack for half a game but they lost sight of the fundamentals of playing hard in difficul

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    TRECIMATED by George on the Outer

    A little more than two months have passed since Melbourne met and came close to beating the reigning premier West Coast in the preliminary final replay over in the West. At the time, the Demons had three wins on the board and now, nine rounds later and going into this week’s match, they have managed to add a paltry two more wins to the ledger.  The Eagles, in contrast, have moved to within percentage of second spot on the ladder despite their loss at home this week against Collingwood. Whil

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    SAME STORY, DIFFERENT SONG by George on the Outer

    Melbourne was still suffering from the same old story - a lack of AFL capable players from which to choose at the selection table - and the Western Bulldogs got to sing their song again. But wait, that wasn’t the Doggie’s song we’ve been hearing for the last 30 years, it was some other concoction and no-one knew the words to it but whatever it was, they got to mumble it with gusto after a huge 8 point win! The sad thing is that the Bulldogs (or Footscray or whatever they choose to call

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    DOGGED by KC from Casey

    On Sunday, the Casey Demons met the Footscray VFL under the roof at the same venue where their nemesis took them down in the 2017 grand final and the result left them with the same feeling of disappointment - this time with a seven point defeat that ended the club’s four game winning streak and made things a lot harder in terms of playing in this year’s final series.   And, as has so often happened this year, the Demons let the game get away from them with but failing to take advantage of th

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    BARKING MAD by The Oracle

    There was so much hype proliferating about Melbourne’s prospects for season 2019 a mere four months ago, that one could be forgiven for thinking anyone contemplating the prospect of a bottom four finish for the Demons at the time was barking mad. That however, is the prospect that they face at the moment and a loss to the Bulldogs on Sunday would make it a virtual certainty.  The club’s downward spiral after several years of moving steadily on an upward trajectory has been well documented i

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    THE MELBOURNE WAY by George on the Outer

    Much has been made by the coaching staff of playing a “Melbourne way” style of play. The nail-biting finish by the Demons in the dying minute of the game could not have been any more the case in point.   Leading by a game-high 38 points late in the third quarter, and by five goals at the final change, this should have been the catalyst for a romp home to an easy win.   But that is not the “Melbourne way” and the supporters, especially those with a severe case of MFCSS (aka intense inse

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    PINK AND BLUE CAN’T KICK TRUE by KC from Casey

    The Casey Demons took on the Northern Blues at home on Saturday  in a game that was crucial in terms of their hopes for September and they took away the valuable four points on offer after some worrying moments. Most of those worries were self-inflicted as a result of some shocking inaccuracy in front of goal, sloppiness in play and a little bit of indiscipline that all combined to make the game a lot closer than it should have been. The final scoreboard showed the Demons winning the P

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    GO FIGURE by Sam the Stats Man

    In May last year, a rampant Melbourne side demolished Carlton by 109 points at the MCG. The Demons did as they pleased and ran rings against a young, abysmal Blues combination. The Dees led in virtually every key performance indicator, notably entering the inside 50 metre mark 63 times to 33 and the superiority of their attack was highlighted by a 74% shooting accuracy rate (to 47%).  A little more than a year later the two sides face each other for the first time since that rout and the ta

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews 1

    GORN AT THE GABBA by George on The Outer

    With Melbourne leading the Brisbane Lions in the second term, and the game in the balance, a Max Gawn ankle injury signalled that the Demons were as good as gorrnnn for the match. Without a suitable 2nd ruck and (once again) forced to use either Tom McDonald, Tim Smith or Sam Weidemann in the ruck the Demons found themselves without a forward line that could kick a winning score. Not that anything really changed, as the forward line has been completely dysfunctional all season and one

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    GAMBIT by KC from Casey

    The opening gambit of Saturday afternoon’s game told us everything about who would be its main players and who would come out on top. The Casey Demons were eager to turn the tables on the Box Hill Hawks who beat them in last year’s grand final and then gave them a first up mauling at City Oval, Box Hill. Kicking with the aid of a strong breeze in the opening term, Braydon Preuss’ first hit out went straight to the diminutive Jay Kennedy Harris who pounced with a 70 metre shot at goal that sailed

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    MURDER BY NUMBERS by Sam the Stats Man

    The respective ladder positions of this week’s combatants tell the story of one side on the rise and the other in steep decline. Since their most recent meeting which took place early last year, the Dees and the Lions have changed positions. They are opposed to each again on the former’s home turf with the locals in fine fettle after blowing St Kilda off the park at Marvel Stadium.  The Lions’ home ground advantage has been a major consideration so far this year. They have won five out of s

    Demonland
    Demonland |
    Match Previews

×
×
  • Create New...