Jump to content

  • Podcast: Draft Wrap Up w/Jason Taylor  

Sign in to follow this  

MURDER BY NUMBERS by Sam the Stats Man

Recommended Posts

The respective ladder positions of this week’s combatants tell the story of one side on the rise and the other in steep decline. Since their most recent meeting which took place early last year, the Dees and the Lions have changed positions. They are opposed to each again on the former’s home turf with the locals in fine fettle after blowing St Kilda off the park at Marvel Stadium. 

The Lions’ home ground advantage has been a major consideration so far this year. They have won five out of six games there to date including fellow finals contenders in West Coast, Port Adelaide and Adelaide.
At first blush, this spells doom and gloom for the Demons. Their position would appear to be hopeless.  
But is that really the case?  
After all, in a game between the sixth placed Brisbane Lions and Melbourne third from last, the statistics most certainly do not tell the whole story.   
Head to head, the Demons lead their opponents in disposals, clearances, the inside 50 count, contested possessions, tackles and hit outs while they do lag behind in free kicks awarded. The Lions are way ahead in terms of accuracy while their visitors continue to concede majors like water through a sieve. On a weekly basis, their opposition manage feats of remarkably accuracy when kicking for goal.  
The commentariat are having a field day trying to deconstruct the phenomenon. It’s to do with fitness and conditioning, too many injuries to key players, lack of skills and technique, poor form, it’s all in the head, a loss of confidence, too slow or a combination of the above.    
And whilst Brisbane are playing for finals honours, Melbourne has little to play for but pride - a commodity that can quickly evaporate if things turn awry in the early stages of a game. With that in mind, it won’t take long to determine whether we have a game on our hands. The Demons will be relying on its midfield ability to win contests with Max Gawn feeding his on ball brigade and hoping that the good form last week of key position players Sam Frost, Steven May and Tom McDonald will again be enough to lift them to victory.
The problem I see is that there are no indication that Melbourne can turn around the season long pattern of murder by numbers in front of not only their own goal but that of their opposition and on that basis, I’m going for the Lions by 10 points.
Brisbane v Melbourne at The Gabba Sunday, 30 June, 2019 at 3.20pm    
Overall  Brisbane 20 wins, Melbourne 25 wins 
At The Gabba Brisbane 13 wins, Melbourne 8 wins    
Last Five Meetings Brisbane 1 win, Melbourne 4 wins   
The Coaches Fagan 0 wins, Goodwin 2 wins  
TV -  Channel 7, Fox Sports 3 Live at 3.00pm  
Radio - TBA
Melbourne 14.16.100 defeated Brisbane 10.14.74 at the Gabba, Round 2, 2018    
After letting victory against Geelong slip through it grasp in Round 1, Melbourne again looked shaky when the Lions came back from a 42-point third-term deficit to level the scores in the fourth. It took some magic from Jeff Garlett who finished with four goals to allow the Demons to draw away and record their first win of the season. Jesse Hogan was in fine touch with five goals, 22 disposals and nine marks.  
Screenshot_2019-06-27 Brisbane Lions Vs Melbourne - Match Centre - AFL com au.png


B Luke Hodge Harris Andrews Daniel Rich
HB Alex Witherden Darcy Gardiner Noah Answerth
C Dayne Zorko Lachie Neale Lincoln McCarthy
HF Cam Rayner Eric Hipwood Mitch Robinson
F Charles Cameron Daniel McStay Zac Bailey
FOLL Stefan Martin Hugh McCluggage Jarryd Lyons
I/C Jarrod Berry Allen Christensen Ryan Lester Oscar McInerney    
EMG Ben Keays Corey Lyons Sam Skinner Brandon Starcevich

IN Zac Bailey Jarrod Berry

OUT Jacob Allison (omitted) Rhys Mathieson (omitted)


B Jay Lockhart Steven May Christian Salem
HB Nathan Jones Sam Frost Bayley Fritsch
C Oskar Baker James Harmes Angus Brayshaw
HF Jayden Hunt Tim Smith Christian Petracca
F Mitch Hannan Tom McDonald Sam Weideman
FOLL Max Gawn Jack Viney Clayton Oliver
I/C Michael Hibberd Marty Hore  Alex Neal-Bullen Harrison Petty
EMG Jordan Lewis Oscar McDonald Braydon Preuss Corey Wagner  

IN Michael Hibberd 

OUT Josh Wagner (omitted)

Injury List: Round 15  
Michael Hibberd (collarbone) – test 
Kade Chandler (hip) – test 
Jake Lever (knee) – 1-2 weeks 
Neville Jetta (knee) – 2-3 weeks 
Billy Stretch (foot) – 2-3 weeks 
Declan Keilty (ankle) – 3-4 weeks 
Jake Melksham (foot) – 4-6 weeks 
Tom Sparrow (knee) – 4-6 weeks 
Kade Kolodjashnij (head) – TBC 
Aaron vandenBerg (foot) – TBC 
Jeff Garlett (shoulder) – season 
Joel Smith (groin) – season 
Aaron Nietschke (knee) – season 
Guy Walker (shoulder) – indefinite 

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Social Media

  • Match Previews, Reports & Articles

    THE YEAR THE SKY FELL by The Oracle

    After a number of years of linear movement up the ladder, the Melbourne Football Club unexpectedly went into serious decline in 2019, slumping from fourth to 17th in a season that coach Simon Goodwin described “a complete wipe-out”. Those around the club who tried to analyse the apocalyptic events that unfolded during the year were hard pressed to find a single reason for the debacle but the most plausible explanation was that the club’s troubles stemmed from a lack of fitness and injuries that

    Demonland |
    Special Features

    BACK IN STYLE by Whispering Jack

    From the moment when the Elton John character in the movie “Rocketman” burst into its opening scene dressed as a flamboyant demon on his way to an addiction rehabilitation session, the game was on. Here was yet another film about a person gifted with a meteoric rise to stardom finding coke, booze and a hedonistic lifestyle that led directly to a destructive crash into the abyss. Ultimately, these stories end in total disaster (“A Star is Born”, “Bohemian Rhapsody”, “Judy”) but this one resulted

    Demonland |
    Special Features


    PART ONE - OVERTURE  I have a disclaimer at the outset. I’m not a fan of the races - be they horses or motors of any kind. Once the final siren sounds on the football season, I find the month or so that follows and corresponds roughly with the Spring Racing Carnival to be the most boring time of the year for sports fans. You turn on the radio and you’re confronted by the monotonous drone of a self-proclaimed racing expert or by the nasally twang of an ex-jockey banging on about the equine p

    Demonland |
    Special Features 8

    CHANGES 2019 by The Oracle

    PART 1 - IT’S A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED THIS TIME This year’s free agency, trade and draft period will see the usual drama and upheaval as the AFL’s 18 clubs seek to better their lists in order to challenge for finals and possibly premiership honours. Long before the final siren sounded on the season just over a week ago, the maneuvering was under way with player agents and clubs discussing possible player movements and in some cases, deals had already been done.  Yesterday, the r

    Demonland |
    Special Features 2

    HOW FAR SOUTH? by George on the Outer

    It was appropriate that Melbourne was playing its last game of season 2019 in Hobart.  After all, how much further south could the team go? And much as it has done in many of the previous 22 games, the side managed to extract a loss from a winning position by simply giving the ball back to the opposition time and time again. In fact, they gave it back to the opposition to the tune of 53 points from turnovers while, by way of contrast North Melbourne contributed  only 17 points to their oppo

    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    COOKED by The Oracle

    I can vividly remember when the Demons ventured onto Blundstone Arena for the first time in early 2016 only to lose to the Kangaroos by 20.11.131 to 21.10.136.    Melbourne was then a team on the up and up: young, enthusiastic and bold. It gave up a huge quarter time deficit after kicking against a strong wind but made that up by half time and fell dramatically short after an exciting high scoring affair.  The team lost no fans that day - they were willing to take the game on and attac

    Demonland |
    Match Previews

    HELP by KC rom Casey

    The Casey Demons finished off their home and away season against Frankston at Skybus Stadium on Sunday with a narrow, unconvincing 6-point victory that left the door slightly open for a top eight berth when the VFL finals begin in a fortnight’s time. While sunny skies prevailed over Frankston in the morning, the skies became overcast by noon and heavy waves pounded the bay nearby as the rains came in to greet the players as the game started. And conditions stayed dark and dreary for the rem

    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THANKS BUT NO THANKS by George on the Outer

    Thanks, but no thanks! In a round where the club was supposed to thank their fans for the support during the year, the Melbourne Football Club chose to do otherwise with a 53 point loss to a team that sat 15th on the ladder.  Don’t give us cheap jumpers that can’t be sold in the Demon shop.  Don’t give us vouchers to shop there, give us something on the field, which is why we come to the football in the first place. It was a disgraceful performance, which started with a disgracefu

    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    SLEEP OUT AT THE MCG by The Oracle

    Around about 12 months ago Melbourne and Sydney fought out an epic battle between two top eight teams fighting for the best possible ladder position in the lead up to the finals. The Swans triumphed by 9 points at the MCG after the Demons came back from five goals down at three quarter time. But for its poor kicking for goal, Melbourne might well have won the game and finished in the top four. Who knows what might then have happened for the club in September? As a consequence, the person re

    Demonland |
    Match Previews


    Two clubs that have been hard hit by injury recently took part in a dour battle under dark clouds and, with intermittent showers falling, it wasn’t a pretty game at Victoria Park on Sunday. Despite all that, the Casey Demons added a little ray of sunshine to their day to get the job done over a "traditional" rival with a 15 point victory over Collingwood VFL that breathed life back into their season. There were a few highlights at the ground that in past days has seen many titanic batt

    Demonland |
    Casey Articles

    THE RETRO ROUND by George on the Outer

    We have seen it all before… Yes, a wonderful idea to showcase what used to be in football.  Big crowds, umpires who knew how to apply the rules and not opinions, high marks, skilful players. But for the Melbourne supporters their retro is what it has been like for the past 10 years. Losing games, end on end, year after year.  Opportunities squandered in front of goal. VFL standard players running around at the MCG. Just more of the same, and the game against Collingwood was no ex

    Demonland |
    Match Reports

    THE PEOPLE SPEAK by The Demonland Crew

    Thanks to Demonlanders for their input into this week’s preview. Ralphius Maximus is short and bittersweet: We'll crack in at the bounce to create a contest, win our share of the ball, butcher the forward movement and get scored on easily from the intercepts. Not that hard to predict. Big Demon says: Unfortunately Collingwood will win because they have a lot more to play for. We will be good in parts but really the season is well over so we will have to put up with those bell

    Demonland |
    Match Previews

  • Create New...