SWEET SEPTEMBER

[Demonland 73,264]

by Scoop Junior

At the year's beginning, if you were told that the equation for the Demons to make the top four was to take a minimum 6 points from their last two games, you would have then and there conceded the team would face a first-up elimination final. After all, Melbourne seemed to have the draw from hell having to play at its two least-favoured venues in the competition against Geelong, rated by some pre-season as the best Victorian team, and Adelaide, last season’s minor premiers in rounds 21 and 22. Even the most optimistic of fans would have gladly accepted one win from these two difficult games.

But footy has a funny knack of swinging around. Since the opening two rounds of the season the Cats have struggled to recapture their best form and they knew last week that a place in the finals was only a very remote possibility. The Demons led by 38 points midway through the third term and probably should have gone on to win, but Geelong's comeback highlighted just how difficult it is to dominate a team on its home turf. Melbourne held on by a split second to come home with two premiership points, leaving its top four destiny in its own hands.

Beat the Crows and the Dees are in, lose and it's another cut-throat elimination final. That's how big this week is!

Forget that finals start next week. This week is as big as a final for the Demons and they will have to play with finals-like intensity and desire if they are to record a rare win at AAMI Stadium.

While luck was against the Dees down at Geelong with some contentious goal-umpiring decisions, it has appeared to turn in the lead-up to this week's clash. The Demons have lost two important players in Matty Whelan and Byron Pickett, but importantly, they regain the skipper and the hard-running, long-kicking youngster Matthew Bate.

Meanwhile, Adelaide has an injury crisis on its hands, with gun half back/midfielder McLeod, experienced defender Hart and key forward Hentschel joining captain Ricciuto, the uncanny star Burton and versatile tall McGregor on the sidelines. These are significant outs for the Crows and will in particular rob the side of much of its goal kicking power.

To add insult to, well, injury in this case, the Crows have struggled to maintain their superb mid-season form. Since a thumping from West Coast in Round 17, Adelaide has won only one game (at home in a tight one against the Magpies), while dropping matches against the Dockers, Bulldogs and Power. The Crows' famous run from behind the ball has dried up as confidence has waned, while their scoring prowess has been hampered by injury. Still, it is not as if Adelaide was wiped off the park in its past three losses. They were level with the red-hot Dockers at three quarter time, led the Dogs by five goals in the third term and dominated Port early.

So underestimate Adelaide at AAMI Stadium at your own peril. They still are a talented football team with a mean defence and a strong home ground advantage, particularly when it comes to the Demons visiting the City of Churches. The Crows have been caned by the media and basically written off as premiership contenders, so they will be desperate to bounce back to form before the finals and to answer their critics.

1. Where Adelaide could hurt the Demons

Adelaide still possesses an A-grade first choice midfield, even in the absence of Burton and the run off half back from McLeod. Goodwin and Edwards are stars who just rack up possessions every week. They win the hard footy and use the ball precisely. Match-ups will be interesting in this regard. It will be too defensive to tag both, so perhaps Goodwin will be assigned a tagger and Edwards left to go head-to-head with James McDonald or Brock McLean. Thompson, while not as dangerous with the footy, still wins plenty of the ball. Mattner is a great defensive-minded wingman while Reilly usually has a birthday against Melbourne and may be a bit of a wild card.

Adelaide has the cattle down back to restrict Melbourne's tall forwards. Rutten will take David Neitz, Bock on Brad Miller and Bassett on Russell Robertson. Neitz is the main danger but the Crows are well equipped with the powerful presence of Rutten, while Bassett is an expert at zoning off his man to assist his fellow key defenders. Robertson and Neitz must combine well for the Demons to ensure they are one-out, while Miller must place himself in dangerous positions, otherwise the Crows will zone off him to crowd up their defence.

AAMI Stadium. That name alone strikes fear into the hearts of Melbourne supporters. The Dees haven't saluted there since Round 2, 2001, when Andrew Leoncelli kicked the winning goal with four seconds left on the clock in driving rain. That game reinforces just how difficult it is to win away and dominate for four quarters, as the Demons led by plenty early in the game before a Crows fight back almost saw them snatch the game. Since then, it has been a sorry tale in Adelaide…almost an annual percentage-booster for the Crows. With only three wins over Adelaide in Adelaide in their history, the Dees know how difficult the task is.

2. Where Melbourne could hurt the Crows

A wild card up forward for Melbourne could be Adem Yze. While the tall forwards have solid opponents, there does not seem to be an obvious choice for Yze in the absence of Hart. Perhaps Massie or Torney will get the job, but Yze will have a huge class advantage over either of these two defenders. If the game is low scoring, which is clearly what Adelaide would want, Yze’s role becomes even more important as it could be which team kicks more opportunistic goals that ultimately wins the match.

While Adelaide’s first choice midfield is still A-grade, it hasn’t got the depth the Demons do. Melbourne has a number of players to rotate through the middle, who won't significantly affect the class or ball-winning ability of their first choice midfield. In contrast, with Adelaide’s injuries, they lack the depth of class to rotate through the midfield and there could be a significant drop-off when Goodwin and Edwards are rested. For these reasons, Melbourne must run hard all day and try to run the Crows’ best midfielders off their feet. Tire them out and force them to rotate should be the order of the day.

Without Ricciuto, Burton, Hentschel and McGregor, the Adelaide attack is severely weakened. There are still some threats in Welsh, Perrie and Bode, but the Demons must use this under-strength Crows' forward line to their advantage. Like the midfield, the defenders should be encouraged to run and take risks and back themselves to do the job. If the defenders can get on top early in the game, it will not only affect the confidence of the makeshift Adelaide forward line but will raise doubts within the entire Crows team as to whether they have the firepower to kick a winning score.

3. Summary

There couldn't be much more at stake for Melbourne. It's either top four and a crack at a potential home preliminary final or a first-up elimination final followed by a tough draw with two probable interstaters to win in order to get to the big one. The Demons know what this game means and there will be absolutely no excuses for not having the right mindset. The Crows will be desperate to find some form and no doubt will be fired up to show the footy world that they are hardly a spent force in 2006.

On paper, the Dees look superior, but the AAMI Stadium factor is significant. Melbourne needs a fast start to further dent the Adelaide confidence and silence the home crowd and, most importantly, a four quarter effort rather than the rags to riches (and vice versa) efforts of the last two weeks. All I can say is, I'm very, very nervous about this one!

Let's hope the team can make this the start of a very sweet September for the Melbourne Football Club!

ADELAIDE v MELBOURNE

Where & When: AAMI Stadium, 2.40pm (ACST), 3.10pm (AEST), Saturday 2 September 2006

TV & Radio:

TV - Fox Footy Channel - Melbourne (3pm), Perth (1pm), Sydney (3pm), Brisbane (3pm). Channel 10 - Adelaide (3.30pm)

RADIO: 5AA, ABC, Triple M (Adelaide)

Head to Head: Played 23, Adelaide 15, Melbourne 8

Last time they met: Adelaide 15.12.102 defeated Melbourne 14.13.97 at Carrara, Round 3, 2006.

The betting: Adelaide $2.22 Melbourne $1.75

The Teams:

ADELAIDE

B: Johncock Rutten Bassett

HB: Doughty Bock Torney

C: Mattner Goodwin van Berlo

HF: Douglas Perrie Reilly

F: Bode Welsh Biglands

FOLL: Clarke Thompson Edwards

I/C: Massie Porplyzia Shirley Stevens

EM: Hinge Hudson Meesen

IN: Massie Porplyzia Stevens Torney

OUT: Hart (achilles) Hentschel (knee) Knights (quad) McLeod (foot)

MELBOURNE

B: Bartram Carroll Holland

HB: Bruce Rivers Ward

C: Green McLean Johnstone

HF: Yze Miller Bate

F: Robertson Neitz Davey

FOLL: White Jones McDonald

I/C: Sylvia Godfrey Jamar Bell

EM: Motlop Smith Warnock

IN: Neitz Bate

OUT: Whelan (hamstring) Pickett (hamstring)

Field umpires: Kennedy Schmitt Goldspink