THE FULL CIRCLE

by The Oracle

Things have changed enormously since Melbourne and Carlton last crossed paths at Telstra Dome for the opening match of the season. In fact, the two clubs have turned a full circle since the wooden spoon favourites upset the Demons to win 13.15.93 to 10.12.72.

After that game, I suggested that Melbourne was out coached by a "master coach" and outplayed by a team that wasn't exactly recognised for its skill and talent. The Blues had the better of most of the match ups, the Demons were top heavy and under prepared and they played into the Blues' hands by being too reactive rather than setting the agenda for the match.

I also wrote at the time that Melbourne came out with an arrogant attitude and contempt for the opposition; that the Demons had been reading all the newspaper reports about the demise of the Carlton Football Club and merely had to turn up and the four points would be delivered on a silver platter.

The Demons were woeful on the day, deserved their 21 point belting and the embarrassment that went with the defeat and, ever since have lived with the knowledge that the loss of the four premiership points on offer was going to prove ever so costly as the team started its move up the ladder towards a finals berth and a top four placing.

Yes, the circle has definitely turned for these clubs in the intervening four months. Carlton players have only once been able to sing their club song since that fateful opening round and are they are on course to win the hand of a number one draft selection for the second year running. The name "Bryce Gibbs" is on the lips of most Blues supporters these days.

Melbourne, on the other hand, lost the next two but has won 12 out of 14 since then and is now closing in on a top two placing that would guarantee it of a home final in the first week of the major action next month. The older Demon fans are even dreaming of that day in September 1964 when their champion skipper of old last held aloft a Melbourne premiership cup at a moment in time that, as it turned out, that marked the turning of an even larger circle of fortune for these two traditional clubs.

Season 1964 marked the end of the Melbourne Football Club’s most successful era ever, one that brought six flags, many grand finals appearances and countless victories. Carlton finished 10th that year and was at the lowest ebb of its long history. Some weeks after the grand final however, the Blues shocked the football world by snaring the Demons’ skipper, Ron Barassi, as its captain coach. That was the catalyst that saw the turn of the circle over the coming years and it was Carlton that won the premierships while Melbourne dwelled in football's cellars.

Now, at last, the circle has turned again.

And if the circle has turned again then surely the greatest danger facing the Demons is that which brought them undone in Round 1 - arrogance and contempt for the opposition, taking for granted that the four points are there for the taking on a silver platter. Given that the bookmakers have Carlton at $4.15 odds to win against Melbourne's $1.18 that seems to be the likely scenario. There are however, some circumstances that might suggest these odds are a trifle misleading.

Undoubtedly, Melbourne's best form for the year has been on the wide, open spaces of the MCG where it has won all nine of its matches this season. Away from home however, the Demons are in negative territory with just three from eight and with their last three losses having been incurred outside Victoria. At Telstra Dome, the record is 1-2 with the only victory coming against lowly Essendon and even then, the Bombers let them out of gaol with some shoddy kicking for goal in the first half of that encounter. The Dome is a place where Melbourne's game plan can be exposed and the Blues have done that twice since in the past two seasons (albeit that the first of those was a Wizard Cup in the 2005 pre season).

There is another great unknown about Melbourne and that is how the team will fare in the absence of the double X factors of Aaron Davey and Byron Pickett who have jointly weaved their magic throughout the season. Saturday's game will mark the first time this season that either of them will be missing for the team.

Then there is the "hunter v the hunted" factor. Melbourne seems to do so much better when it's on the hunt. This week however, the Demons will definitely be the hunted as they were late in 2004 when the Blues shocked them at Optus Oval even though a win would have kept the team’s double chance prospects alive.

Against that is the fact that there is far too much at stake for Melbourne to let this game slip. The race for a top four berth is one of the most intriguing aspects of the run home. Further, Adelaide's major stumble out west last week has signalled that the race for the flag is far from a one horse race. In those circumstances, the Demons will call on their midfield firepower, augmented since the opening round by the stunning improvement of Brock McLean, the steady form of James McDonald and the emergence of Matthew Bate, to make a lot of the difference compared to their round performance. Add the presence of Jared Rivers in defence and the all-powerful multi pronged attack and the drive generated by the team’s twin ruckmen and Melbourne should get home by a comfortable margin - as long as it attacks the game with purpose from the very beginning.

And finally, it's another Demon milestone game and we all know how well Melbourne has performed lately when there's a milestone to celebrate. This time it’s skipper David Neitz' 150th game as captain of the club and to celebrate I'm selecting Melbourne to win by 34 points in a game that will mark the completion of the turning of the circle of football fortune for the two clubs since Round 1.

THE GAME -

Melbourne v Carlton at Telstra Dome on Saturday 5 August 2006 at 2.10pm AEST

TV & Radio Fox Footy Vic/ACT (2pm) NSW (2pm) QLD (2pm) SA (1.30pm) WA (12pm) ABC

Head to Head Played 196 Carlton 108 Melbourne 86 2 drawn

Last time they met Carlton 13.15.93 defeated Melbourne 10.12.72 d in Round 1, 2006 at Telstra Dome

Want a bet? Carlton $4.15 Melbourne $1.18

Teams:

MELBOURNE

B: Whelan Carroll Holland

HB: Ward Rivers Bartram

C: Green Johnstone Wheatley

HF: Sylvia Robertson Bruce

F: Jamar Neitz Yze

R: White McLean McDonald

IC: Bate Brown Godfrey Jones

Em: Bell Miller Motlop

IN Green Wheatley

OUT Davey (hamstring) Pickett (hamstring)

CARLTON

B: Carrazzo Thornton S O'hAilpin

HB: Scotland Whitnall Walker

C: Simpson Bentick Wiggins

HF: Houlihan Fisher Fevola

F: Betts Waite Lappin

R: French Koutoufides Stevens

IC: Blackwell Bryan McGrath Russell

Em: Bannister Deluca Teague

IN Lappin

OUT Bannister

Field umpires: Quigley, M.Nicholls, Wenn

CHANGES FROM ROUND 1:

MELBOURNE

IN Bate Godfrey Holland Jones McLean Rivers Wheatley

OUT Davey Ferguson Johnson Pickett Miller Moloney Motlop

CARLTON

IN Blackwell Bryan S O'hAilpin Russell Wiggins

OUT Deluca Livingston McLaren Murphy Sporn