THE SAVING GRACE by Whispering Jack

[Demonland 72,217]

I have a feeling that whoever it was at the AFL who framed the draw for the Round 17 fixture might have a good sense of humour. After kicking off proceedings on Thursday night with an absolute ripper of a game between two teams that might well end up facing each other again on the last Saturday in September, the rest of what's on offer is pretty much rubbish. 

The game at Adelaide Oval involving a resurgent Collingwood could be of interest now that the Magpie faithful have declared their team a sure thing to make the finals but most of the games in the round are complete mismatches on current form. Of course, when the draw was prepared at the end of last season, it was difficult to predict exactly how the teams would be faring in the midst of winter in the year to come or that the top eight would be virtually set in stone barring some sort of major calamity. Still, you have to admit, there is a dull, colourless and boring feel about the eight match ups on show from Friday night to Sunday evening.

However, there is one game that shapes up as a possible exception among all of the drudgery, a game that presents itself as a possible bookend to the opening game of the round and I'm not talking here of the potential farce at the Gabba starting at 4.40pm. Rather, I allude to Sunday's clash at Etihad Stadium between St Kilda and Melbourne, which unlike their last meeting 11 weeks ago, is a Saints home game. The contest shapes up as the AFL's saving grace for the weekend.

The two sides are sitting among a group of four teams on seven wins and three games behind eighth placed North Melbourne but with very little chance of making the finals unless they win most (if not all) of their remaining games and the Kangaroos' free fall continues. Neither outcome is particularly likely to result in a change to the makeup of the current top eight.

The Saints hit a high a fortnight ago when they fought out a gutsy win against Geelong (who themselves have put in some flakey performances of late) but have been disappointing in their more recent outings, losing to lowly Gold Coast by 40 points and coming close to joining the Demons last week as an ignominious loser to the depleted Bombers of 2016. They also have suffered some real poundings in their interstate games this year. 

Melbourne on the other hand, rebounded in Darwin last week against the Dockers after losing consecutive games to the finals bound Swans and Crows. They seem to be enjoying the better form of this week's contestants.However, that was exactly the case when the teams met earlier in the year and the Dees started out as firm favourite to break their then 12 game losing streak against the Saints which stretches all the way back to the 2006 Elimination Final when Nathan Jones' career was in its infancy. 

It turned out that St Kilda was the superior side at their last meeting despite Jesse Hogan's almost single handed seven goal haul up forward. Max Gawn had a rare down day in the ruck against Tom Hickey, the Saints defence and midfield were dominant with their pace and the Demons lacked the poise and discipline to hold the Saints' playmakers. After being in doubt to play all week, Nick Riewoldt was virtually untouchable producing a team killing virtuoso performance. There were no excuses from the Melbourne camp but it was conceded that having an unbalanced and seemingly tired-looking outfit on the park after a six day break was unhelpful. 

So what will Melbourne produce to make up for that lacklustre effort from earlier this season? The answer to that lies in the changes to the team's structure since that last performance. The defence in particular is more streamlined and far less stodgy - they will not be outpaced as they were last time - and the leakage down back has been stemmed. The forward line won't be relying on Hogan alone. Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett and Dean Kent are all dangerous in front of goal. Max Gawn will be eager to prove that he is deserving of his 2016 reputation as one of the two top ruckmen going around and the midfield, which is now ranking third in contested possessions will relish the contest. And someone will be assigned to make sure that Riewoldt is not permitted to roam around the stadium doing as he pleases.

Melbourne to win by 29 points.

THE GAME

St Kilda v Melbourne at Etihad Stadium Sunday 17 July 2016 at 3.20pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall  St Kilda 90 wins Melbourne 118 wins 1 drawn

At Etihad  St Kilda 7 wins Melbourne 3 wins

Past five meetings St Kilda 5 wins Melbourne 0 wins 

The Coaches Richardson 4 wins Roos 0 wins 

MEDIA

TV - Channel 7 Fox Sports 3 Live at 3.00pm

RADIO - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING St. Kilda to win - $2.00 to win Melbourne to win - $1.82

THE LAST TIME THEY MET 

St. Kilda 20.15.135  defeated Melbourne 15.6.96 in Round 6, 2016  at Etihad Stadium

Melbourne started favourite to beat its long-running St Kilda hoodoo and got off to a solid start when it led by almost three goals halfway through the opening term. However, the wheels fell off as the Saints took over in the midfield and ran the Demons ragged. They looked slow and indecisive and but for a great individual effort from Jesse Hogan and some accurate kicking for goal, would have gone down by a far greater margin. 

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Sam Frost, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta
HB: Jayden Hunt, Oscar McDonald, Jack Grimes
C: Christian Petracca, Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson
HF: Jeff Garlett, Jack Watts, James Harmes
F: Aaron vandenBerg, Jesse Hogan, Dean Kent
FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C: Angus Brayshaw, Matt Jones, Ben Kennedy, Mitch White
EMG: Tomas Bugg, Billy Stretch, Josh Wagner

IN: Angus Brayshaw 

OUT: Billy Stretch (omitted)

ST KILDA

B: Jarryn Geary, Sean Dempster, Dylan Roberton
HB: Jack Newnes, Sam Gilbert, Leigh Montagna
C: Maverick Weller, David Armitage, Jack Billings
HF: Blake Acres, Nick Riewoldt, Nathan Wright
F: Tim Membrey, Josh Bruce, Darren Minchington
FOLL:  Tom Hickey, Luke Dunstan, Jack Steven
I/C:   Jade Gresham, Daniel McKenzie, Sebastian Ross, Jack Sinclair 
EMG: Luke Delaney,Cameron Shenton, Eli Templeton

IN: Jack Billings, Jack Sinclair

OUT: Luke Delaney (omitted), Shane Savage (concussion)

SAM THE STATS MAN'S ROUND UP - 2016 TO DATE

BRAYSHAW Angus MFC 3 games, 3 goals, CSFC 5 games, 2 goals - brilliant youngster has had his season blighted by injuries including concussion issues that kept him out for several weeks.

BUGG, Tomas MFC 14 games, 2 goals - hard and driven, he has proven a real pest when running with opponents but his form has tapered off a little lately.

DAWES, Chris MFC 4 games, 1 goal, CSFC 3 games, 7 goals - was hampered for some time by a calf injury and has failed to impress on return.

DUNN, Lynden MFC 4 games,1 goals, CSFC 4 games, 0 goals - suddenly found himself out of favour and banished to Casey where he was injured. Performed well there when he returned.

FROST, Sam MFC 10 games, 4 goals, CSFC 3 games, 0 goals - the experiment as a forward failed and he is now settling down as a defender where his pace is outstanding. 

GARLAND, Colin MFC 6 games, 0 goals, CSFC 7 games, 1 goal - like Dunn has found himself on the outer in the overhaul of the team's defence but has been pushing for selection with the Scorpions.

GARLETT, Jeffrey MFC 11 games, 20 goals, CSFC 2 games, 0 goals - not as consistent as last year but proved a fortnight ago how dangerous he can be near goal.

GAWN, Max MFC 15 games, 12 goals - declared his ambition to be among the leading AFL ruckmen early and has made his case. Is close to All Australian selection. 

GRIMES, Jack MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CSFC 9 games, 5 goals - has been diligent in his application and was very good on return to the AFL in Darwin last week with 32 possessions at 90% efficiency.

HARMES, James MFC 13 games,12 goals, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - improving beyond expectation and now reveling in a new role down back.  

HOGAN, Jesse MFC 15 games, 38 goals - hard working, talented and strong, the youngster is well on his way to becoming an elite key forward in the competition. 

HULETT, Liam CSFC 10 games, 15 goals - developing tall forward who would not be far off  a promotion. 

HUNT, Jayden MFC 12 games, 1 goal, CSFC 1 game ,1 goal - the dashing defender continues to improve rapidly from week to week and is surely the next Demon rising star nominee.

JETTA, Neville MFC 14 games, 0 goals - steady, reliable and experienced, he gives the defence the extra steel it needs.

JONES, Matthew MFC 6 games, 0 goals, CSFC 3 games, 0 goals - pacy footballer who had a good start to the season, suffered a setback with injury after four games but has returned to form with a vengeance. 

JONES, Nathan MFC 15 games, 9 goals - shows unrelenting strength and his leadership is often underrated on the AFL scene.

KENNEDY, Ben MFC 14 games, 12 goals, CSFC 1 game , 0 goals - has put in some excellent performances as a small forward who occasionally runs around the middle of the ground. 

KENNEDY-HARRIS, Jay CSFC 2 games, 2 goals - broke down with a severe hamstring injury in Casey's first game and lasted one more after he returned before injury struck again.

KENT, Dean MFC 14 games, 21 goals - with his injury woes behind him, Kent is becoming a valuable member of the emerging Demon forward set up.

KING, Max ® CSFC 10 games, 5 goals - the club is being patient with the tall developing forward/ruckman but, after three years at the club, needs to show more at Casey if he is to hold a spot on the club's lists.

KING, Mitch CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - the big man broke down with an ACL injury early in his opening game down at Casey.

LUMUMBA, Heritier MFC 5 games, 0 goals, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - returned from post season surgery in resulted in hot and cold form and more lately has been sidelined with concussion issues. 

 McDONALD, Oscar MFC 8 games, 0 goals, CSFC 5 games, 0 goals - slowly developing youngster who is getting games into his legs as a key defender.

McDONALD, Tom MFC 15 games, 1 goal - strong key position player who has produced some outstanding performance i

MELKSHAM, Jake - suspended as a result of the ASADA supplements investigation and CAS decision.

MICHIE, Viv ® MFC 3 games, 1 goal, CSFC 7 games, 4 goals - has shown sparkling form in the VFL but failed to show enough to keep his spot when promoted.

NEAL-BULLEN, Alex MFC 2 games, 1 goal, CSFC 9 games, 5 goals - another who has excelled with the Scorpions but has yet to grab his opportunities at the highest level.

NEWTON, Ben MFC 2 games, 1 goal, CSFC 9 games, 6 goals - came back from a long injury lay off and pushed for promotion to the AFL but was soon back at Casey.

OLIVER, Clayton MFC 10 games, 4 goals, CSFC 2 games, 0 goals - the hard nosed teenager who won a NAB Rising Star nomination on debut in Round 1 is being nicely nursed through his debut season. 

PEDERSEN, Cameron MFC 7 games, 5 goals, CSFC 3 games, 2 goals - a regular forward/relief ruck fixture in the early part of the season, but has been missing after a drop in form followed by injury.

PETRACCA, Christian MFC 10 games, 7 goals, CSFC 3 games, 3 goals - has yet to set the world on fire but is showing some very clear glimpses of star potential.

SALEM, Christian MFC 7 games, 1 goal, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - was starting to shows some great skill and class before succumbing to a thyroid problem from which he is only slowly recovering.

SMITH, Joel  ® CSFC 5 games, 1 goal - the young rookie who switched sports from basketball was showing promising signs with the Casey Scorpions before an groin injury struck.

SPENCER, Jake  CSFC 8 games, 6 goals - seems destined to be the understudy to Max Gawn. Has dominated at VFL level but it seems the selectors have not really favoured having two big men in the line up.

STRETCH, Billy MFC 10 games, 2 goals, CSFC 2 games, 0 goals - continues to make an exciting progression, showing speed and evasive skills.

TERLICH, Dean CSFC 11 games, 5 goals - remains well down back of the queue for selection at AFL level.

TRENGOVE, Jack MFC 3 games,1 goal, CSFC 8 games, 5 goals - made a hard earned return to senior ranks after more than two years out. Still rusty as one would expect. 

TYSON, Dom MFC 14 games, 8 goals - has played some excellent football on his return after a few troughs in form last year. 

VANDENBERG, Aaron  MFC 8 games, 5 goals, CSFC 1 game, 0 goals - the big-bodied midfielder's progress was stalled by an ankle injury and is only now returning to last year's form 

VINCE, Bernie MFC 14 games 5 goals - an important player in the Demon line up who recently re-signed in a great show of faith

VINEY, Jack MFC 14 games, 7 goals - started like a house on fire as a hard, smart and tough on baller and has come back to the field a little recently but is still very dangerous. 

WAGNER, JOSH ® MFC 11 games, 0 goals - mature aged rookie has been a revelation in defence with his smart play and neat delivery of the football. 

WATTS, Jack MFC 15 games, 30 goals - is having his best season yet as a dangerous forward who also pinch hits in the ruck when Max takes a rest.

WEIDEMAN, Sam CSFC 8 games,17 goals - has shown potential as a future key position forward as is being given plenty of time to develop in the VFL.

WHITE, Mitch ® MFC 1 game, 0 goals, CSFC 11 games, 2 goals - the hard working defender was finally rewarded with a second time elevation off the rookie and impressed in Darwin.