DEFYING HISTORY by Whispering Jack

[Demonland 73,140]

I was surprised to read that Melbourne started the week as a firm favourite to beat Port Adelaide in this Saturday's indigenous round game at TIO Traeger Park in Alice Springs. 

The Demons might have a slight edge on Port in terms of recent form but both clubs are close in ladder terms and are equally motivated to win in order to stay in touch with the top eight. While the Demons are nominally the home team, the visiting side is domiciled closer to its own home base, therefore having less travel to get to the venue and it also has history on its side. 

The Power have won at both of their meetings at this ground and beaten the Demons on all three occasions since Paul Roos became coach at Melbourne. In addition, despite its last start win at the MCG against the Brisbane Lions, the "home" team has such an abysmal record when starting as favourite that it cannot be said with confidence that it is a sure thing to beat a team containing the likes of Robbie Gray, Travis Boak, Brad Ebert, Hamish Hartlett, Chad Wingard and Ollie Wines. I heard somewhere that the latter player apparently originally wanted to be drafted to Melbourne to join his mate Jack Viney so every time he plays against them, he likes to really turn it on.

The ruck battles will be interesting with the Demons holding the edge through 208cm Max Gawn who should be too good for the Port ruckmen although some are calling for the overworked Gawn to be rested in the light of the fact that Port have been relying on an undersized Jackson Trengove in that department. In recent weeks, Max has been pushed from pillar to post and double teamed in an attempt to rough him up. Last week, the umpires didn't seem to notice and the opposition will continue to try as long as they can get away with the tactic. Gawn doesn't need a rest - he needs assistance. The big man has been a vital cog in the team's resurgence and leaving him out of a game that's important as this one should not even be considered.

Port Adelaide also goes into the game with the edge in experience which can be a double edged sword when both teams are traveling away from the comfort of their own home. It's always good to have cool, seasoned heads but the young Melbourne team these days (nine of its players last week had not played more than 20 AFL games) is so compelling and so full of enthusiasm when it gets going. Of course, that doesn't always help but I'm tipping Melbourne to defy history and win its first game ever at Traeger Park.

THE GAME Melbourne v Port Adelaide on Saturday 28 May, 2015 at 1.10pm (AEST) at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 11 wins Port Adelaide 18 wins

At TIO Traeger Park Melbourne 0 wins Port Adelaide 2 wins

Past five meetings Melbourne 0 wins Port Adelaide 5 wins

The Coaches Roos 0 wins Hinkley 3 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Sports 3 live at 2.00pm

RADIO - SEN ABC ABC Grandstand 

THE BETTING Melbourne to win - $1.70 Port Adelaide to win - $2.15

THE LAST TIME THEY MET Port Adelaide 18.7.115 defeated Melbourne 8.6.54 Round 9 at TIO Traeger Park

Melbourne started like a house on fire and held a four goal lead at one stage during the second quarter. At that point however, the house burned down. 

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE 

B: Josh Wagner, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

HB: Tomas Bugg, Oscar McDonald, Colin Garland

C: Billy Stretch, Dom Tyson, Bernie Vince 

HF: Dean Kent, Jack Watts, Jeff Garlett

F: Christian Petracca, Jesse Hogan, Ben Kennedy

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C: James Harmes, Jayden Hunt, Alex Neal-Bullen, Ben Newton 

EMG: Chris Dawes, Jack Grimes, Viv Michie 

IN: Neville Jetta, Dom Tyson

OUT: Viv Michie (omitted), Clayton Oliver (quad)

PORT ADELAIDE

B: Darcy Byrne-Jones, Jack Hombsch, Jasper Pittard 

HB: Nathan Krakouer, Cam O'Shea, Matthew Broadbent

C: Jared Polec, Ollie Wines, Brad Ebert

HF: Jake Neade, Justin Westhoff, Hamish Hartlett 

F: Aaron Young, Charlie Dixon, Chad Wingard 

FOLL: Jackson Trengove, Travis Boak, Robbie Gray

I/C: Karl Amon, Dougal Howard, Jarman Impey, Paul Stewart 

EMG: Brendon Ah Chee, Logan Austin, Sam Gray

IN: Dougal Howard

OUT: Tom Jonas (suspended)