INCONSISTENT BASTERDS by JVM

[Demonland 73,140]

Melbourne and North Melbourne are two teams whose form during the 2015 season is regarded by all and sundry as extremely inconsistent. Their highs and their lows over the year so far have been well documented and fans of both clubs have been heard leaving some of their games muttering the words "inconsistent basterds" as an apt description of the cause of their frustrations.

On this basis, one might think it would be a difficult task to select the winner of this week's contest at the MCG and yet the Kangaroos are rightly firm favourites with the pundits to win the match up.

The favouritism no doubt stems from the fact that they seem to be finding some consistency at last with wins in their last four matches. But if you look at who they've beaten since their 55-point loss to the Gold Coast Suns on the day of Garry Ablett Junior's comeback game five weeks ago, a different story emerges. They have since beaten Geelong (at a time when the Cats were at their absolute poorest), Essendon, Brisbane and Carlton whilst enjoying the AFL's dream fixture and it's been a while since they've had to fight out a pressure game against one of the competition's power house clubs.

Of course, at this stage of the journey Melbourne fans can only dream about winning two games in a row (let alone four) and there's that little matter of North's 13-game winning streak that goes back all the way to late in 2006 when Nathan Jones' career was in its infancy that makes them such firm favourites. When you consider that young Demons like Jesse Hogan, Angus Brayshaw, James Harmes and Alex Neal-Bullen were running around in the Under 11s and 10s when their club last prevailed over this week's opponent, it brings the enormity of the task into perspective.

And yet, I have this feeling that the time is ripe for Melbourne to overturn yet another long-running hoodoo. So far this year the club has smashed many of these, starting with the game over the Suns which marked its first opening round win in a decade. On the eve of Anzac Day, it beat Richmond to record its first Friday night win in a long time, Hogan kicked five goals against the Saints (albeit in a losing game) to end several years when the best an individual player had scored in a game was three and the wins against Geelong at Simonds Stadium and last week at Collingwood ended long droughts against those clubs. In the case of those latter victories, they were completely unexpected which is what one expects from inconsistent teams.

But if there has been one consistent thing about both clubs this year, it has been the form of their main ruckmen. Todd Goldstein has been great for the Kangaroos all year, is a certain All Australian and has been mentioned as a Brownlow chance. Max Gawn only grabbed the first ruck mantle at Melbourne after half a season at Casey but has been the stand out big man ever since and (pardon the pun) continues to grow in stature.

If Maxy can win his battle against Goldstein on Sunday he will consolidate a position among the top three or four ruckmen in the competition and go a long way to putting an end to his club's days as inconsistent basterds.

THE GAME Melbourne v North Melbourne on Sunday 9th August, 2015 at MCG at 1.10 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 83 wins North Melbourne 77 wins 1 draw

At MCG Melbourne 54 wins North Melbourne 35 wins

Last five times Melbourne 0 wins North Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Roos 0 wins Scott 2 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel at 1.00pm (live)

RADIO - Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $3.60 North Melbourne to win $1.29

LAST TIME THEY MET

North Melbourne 19.9.123 defeated Melbourne 14.9.93 at Etihad Stadium in Round 23, 2014

North rested some of their leading lights on the eve of the finals Melbourne the opportunity to stay in the game until the second half when the Roos took control and moved away to win by 5 goals. Nathan Jones and Dom Tyson were the best of the Demons.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta

HB: Daniel Cross, Tom McDonald, Jeremy Howe

C: Jack Grimes, Dom Tyson, Heritier Lumumba

HF: Angus Brayshaw, Chris Dawes, Bernie Vince

F: Jeff Garlett, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts

FOLL: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney

I/C (from): James Harmes, Matt Jones, Viv Michie, Alex Neal-Bullen

EMG: Mark Jamar, Ben Newton, Billy Stretch

IN: Matt Jones

OUT: Aaron vandenBerg (ankle)

NORTH MELBOURNE

B: Sam Wright, Robbie Tarrant, Lachlan Hansen

HB: Nick Dal Santo, Scott Thompson, Ben Jacobs

C: Shaun Higgins, Jack Ziebell, Shaun Atley

HF: Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Taylor Garner

F: Ben Brown, Jarrad Waite, Lindsay Thomas

FOLL: Todd Goldstein, Ben Cunnington, Andrew Swallow

I/C: Sam Gibson, Luke McDonald, Aaron Mullett, Robin Nahas

EMG: Majak Daw, Kayne Turner, Max Warren

IN: Lachlan Hansen, Aaron Mullett, Robin Nahas

OUT: Ryan Bastinac (omitted), Michael Firrito (suspended), Kayne Turner (omitted)

The way things seem to be panning out in the run to the finals, this game is crucial to North's end of year prospects. A defeat in their clash with Melbourne could well prove a disaster for the Kangaroos whose last three games are against teams likely to contest the 2015 finals series.

I've already mentioned the ruck contests as being crucial to the outcome but they will also set the scene for an intriguing midfield battle. North has been solid and steady in this area for some time but has lacked brilliance during the long absence of Daniel Wells.

A little over twelve months ago this would have been a game decider in favour of North but Nathan Jones has now been joined by Bernie Vince, Dom Tyson and a couple of exciting strong tackling hard youngsters in Jack Viney and Angus Brayshaw and will be no pushovers. With Jack Watts coming of age and a couple of forward targets like Chris Dawes and Jesse Hogan there is every chance that this game will produce an upset.

Melbourne by 10 points.