RED ALERT by The Oracle

This could only happen to Melbourne.

Last Sunday, St. Kilda which had hitherto won just four games this season played a game against Essendon which was also on the same number of wins. The Bombers started as slight favourite and produced a performance that was so monumentally pathetic that it has to rank up there with the phenomenon known as "186" that was visited upon the Melbourne Football Club in 2011. After all, Geelong which inflected that defeat on the Demons went on to win the flag that year while the Saints who vanquished the Bombers at Etihad Stadium last weekend were not long ago considered wooden spoon favourite.

They were so limp that they allowed the young Saints 141 more possessions, 23 more inside 50s, double the number of marks on the day (142 marks to 71) and effortless goal after effortless goal and in light of this, their 110-point loss, the seventh worst in their entire history was their equivalent of "186". The only difference was that the Essendon Board didn't sack the coach.

Then came the news that Essendon skipper Jobe Watson has been ruled out for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury to join a swag of other household names at Bomberland sitting on the sidelines. Names like Paul Chapman (groin - 1-2 weeks), Adam Cooney (hamstring - 2 weeks), Tom Bellchambers (foot - 8 weeks), Travis Colyer (foot - 6-8 weeks), Jake Carlisle (ankle - 4-6 weeks) and the wonderful Orazio Fantasia (groin - 1-2 weeks). And the oldest man in the game, Dustin Fletcher who was in the game long before many current day competitors surfaced in their maternity wards has been missing for several weeks since he played his 400th AFL game.

So the Bombers appear to be at their lowest ebb at the very same time when they face the Demons. They are so down in the dumps that the betting agencies have installed Melbourne as the favourite to win this week's game at the G and that's where the red flag comes into contention.

When, in recent history, has Melbourne ever won a game starting as the favourite?

Oh you might say that the Melbourne of 2015 is a different team to that of years gone by - that it's been competitive without actually winning more games than, say last year when it had the same number of wins at this stage of the journey. But let's not forget that Essendon still occupies one position higher by dint of its superior percentage (admittedly only by 1.6%).

But how different is Melbourne right at this minute to the Melbourne of the past?

Much was made of the fact that the team introduced seven new faces for the opening game of the season to go with some of the young up and comers introduced in the past year or so. I was contemplating this very thing in the early moments of last Saturday night's game in Darwin. Of the "seven", only Jeff Garlett and Jesse Hogan were still on the ground, the latter returning after missing a game through hamstring soreness. Where were the rest of the magnificent seven?

Angus Brayshaw (subbed off with a neck injury after just two minutes);
Sam Frost (missing since round three with a broken toe);
Heritier Lumumba (foot);
Ben Newton (at Casey coming back from concussion);
Aaron Vandenberg (out for a month with a hamstring injury)

And where were those young guns with promise who were there for that round 1 victory over the Suns?

Jay Kennedy-Harris (at Casey after recovering from a groin injury);
Dean Kent (missing since Anzac Day eve with a hamstring injury); and
Christian Salem (also missing with a hammy first incurred two months ago and still 3 weeks away).

All on top of that season-ending knee injury to Christian Petracca incurred back in February.

This all suggests that the team hasn't changed much, that Saturday's game looms as the battle between the Norm Smith curse and the ASADA curse and the red flag has been well and truly raised.

THE GAME Essendon v Melbourne at the MCG Saturday, 11 July, 2015 at 1.40pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Essendon 127 wins Melbourne 81 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Essendon 64 wins Melbourne 45 wins 1 draw

The last five meetings Essendon 1 win Melbourne 4 wins

The Coaches Hird 0 wins Roos 0 wins

MEDIA

TV - Fox Footy Channel at 1.30pm (live)

RADIO - Triple M 3AW SEN ABC ABC Grandstand

THE BETTING

Essendon $2.35 to win Melbourne $1.59 to win

THE LAST TIME THEY MET

Melbourne 12.6.78 defeated Essendon 10.17.77 Round 13, 2014 at the MCG

This game produced one of the highlights of Melbourne's dismal 2014 season when a chain of disposals ended with a dramatic last minute mark and goal to Christian Salem to the Demons get up by the narrowest of margins against an inaccurate Essendon after trailing at one stage by 33 points. The lowlight was that it was the team's last win for 2014.

THE TEAMS

ESSENDON
​
B: Mark Baguley, Michael Hurley, James Gwilt
HB: Jackson Merrett, Jake Melksham, Ariel Steinberg, Martin Gleeson
C: Brent Stanton, Dyson Heppell, David Zaharakis
HF: Zach Merrett, Joe Daniher, Michael Hibberd
F: Patrick Ambrose, Cale Hooker, Jayden Laverde
FOLL: Shaun McKernan, Ben Howlett, Brendon Goddard
I/C: Alex Browne, Heath Hocking, Nick O'Brien, Jason Ashby, Shaun Edwards
EMG: Jonathan Giles, Elliott Kavanagh, Kyle Langford

IN: Patrick Ambrose, Jason Ashby, Alex Browne, Shaun Edwards, Heath Hocking, Jayden Laverde

OUT: Adam Cooney (hamstring), Courtenay Dempsey (omitted), Elliott Kavanagh (omitted), Jake Melksham (hamstring), Jobe Watson (shoulder)

NEW: Jayden Laverde (19, Western Jets)

MELBOURNE

B: Colin Garland, Lynden Dunn, Neville Jetta
HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Billy Stretch
C: Daniel Cross, Bernie Vince, Heritier Lumumba
HF: Alex Neal-Bullen, Chris Dawes, Jeff Garlett
F: Angus Brayshaw, Jesse Hogan, Jack Watts
Foll: Max Gawn, Nathan Jones, Jack Viney
I/C: Jay Kennedy-Harris, James Harmes, Aaron vandenBerg, Dom Tyson
EMG: Rohan Bail, Mark Jamar, Jack Fitzpatrick

IN: James Harmes, Jay Kennedy-Harris, Heritier Lumumba, Aaron vandenBerg

OUT: Rohan Bail, Matt Jones, Jake Spencer, Jimmy Toumpas (all omitted)

NEW: James Harmes (19, Dandenong Stingrays)

After team selection on Thursday night, two more Essendon players dropped out with injury - Heath Hocking (back) and Jake Melksham (hamstring). They were replaced by virtual unknowns in Jason Ashby and Shaun Edwards - even more bad news for the Demons who probably did zero homework on these blokes who will no doubt be the stars of the game

The game is being billed as the Clash for Cancer and the face of the game from Essendon’s point of view is healed cancer sufferer Adam Ramanauskas. Given the club’s recent history with the illness and the loss of former greats Jim Stynes and Sean Wight and our association with breast cancer awareness, it’s a great cause and worthy of our support.

The Essendon team appears to be falling apart with more injuries announced (as above) since Thursday night’s team selection. This is extremely problematic for Melbourne as the Bombers line up appears to be looking more and more like the one they one they put out on the field for the third NAB Challenge game back in March which was played at Etihad Stadium.

Remember that?

Essendon was coming off two shattering defeats including a pounding at the hands of St. Kilda (ahem). Melbourne had put in a fair performance in Fremantle against the Dockers and followed it up with a win against the Bulldogs in Ballarat. With the Bombers fielding a second rate side bereft of the remaining players among the Essendon 34 who were then awaiting the outcome of the AFL Tribunal decision on the ASADA doping charges, the Demons were raging favourites and a loss to this rag, tag depleted excuse for a football team was regarded as unthinkable.

The unthinkable happened.

So when the ball is bounced for the opening of the game at the MCG, let’s not labour under any delusions. It’s a danger game for the Demons.

Former Bomber Matthew Lloyd has said that he expects the ‘little things’ to tell a big story when the teams meet.

“I’m going to be looking at the first two or three stoppages, the effort around the ball, the contests, the pressure around the ball,” Lloyd said.

“I think that’s where it all stems from, your confidence comes from all the little things.

“The chases, the tackles, the smothers; and the rest just falls into line from there.”

The likelihood of rain, strong winds and possible hailstorms promises a scrappy match in difficult conditions and in those instances, it’s the more settled team that wins in the end.

I will therefore shun the curses, the red alerts, the history of Melbourne losing games when favourite and tip the Demons to finish on top by 22 points.