FLEETING MOMENTS by Whispering Jack

[Demonland 73,266]

There was a fleeting moment earlier in the week when I thought to myself, "we might win this." My logic was based on the fact that a little over a week ago, Melbourne came very close to beating the Western Bulldogs with a final score of 13.7.85 to 14.7.91.

It was a defeat by a mere goal and we know full well that had the umpires used their whistles properly in those dying moments, a different result might well have ensued. And some tighter play on first year Bulldog Marcus Bontempelli might have prevented those final two snap shot goals from out of his backside that won his team the four points.

So moving forward seven days, the same Bulldogs took on Geelong who are Melbourne's opponents this week but this time they registered not one but two scoring shots at goal more than their opponent to score 7.14.56 to 10.9.69. However, this time, they lost by 13 points.

You know where I'm going here. It's a trap many of us fall into when comparing the performance of teams over two games. I agonise over why could the Doggies not have kicked that 7.14 against us instead of 14.7. I also figure that if there's only one scoring shot difference between Melbourne and Geelong in consecutive games against the Bullies, then we have to be somewhere in the same ball park.

Right?

Wrong?

Wrong, because I look at how Melbourne went even more recently - last Saturday night against Fremantle - and then I ask myself the rhetorical question, " what was I thinking?"

I made the point some weeks earlier when Melbourne seemed to be coming out of its shell to surprise some reasonably good opposition with its grinding defensive play, that it was time for coach Paul Roos to encourage a little more attacking flair in the team. Instead of playing the game in stop, start pedestrian style that often can break down with skill errors, I advocated in favour of the players taking the game on a little bit but that's starting to look like a forlorn hope. Instead, we are seeing a different pattern emerging; one in which we try to assert defensive pressure and are broken down because we've become so predictable in how we play.

In the end, the opposition get a run on as we lose confidence and those big bursts of goals more or less put us out of contention.

Against Geelong this week, Melbourne is particularly exposed because even though the Cats aren't anywhere near their peak, they play exactly the type of game that breaks the defensive mould and then destroys it. I therefore can't see Melbourne coming close this week. Not even for a fleeting moment.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Geelong at the MCG on Saturday 12 July 2014 at 1.45pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 83 wins Geelong 125 wins 2 draws

At the MCG Melbourne 51 wins 51 Geelong wins

The last five years Melbourne 0 wins Geelong 5 wins

The Coaches Roos 0 Scott 0

MEDIA

TV - Fox Sports Channel live at 1.30pm

RADIO -Triple M 3AW

THE BETTING

Melbourne to win $7.00 Geelong to win $1.10

LAST TIME THEY MET Geelong 13.20.98 defeated Melbourne 4.6.30 at Simonds Stadium in Round 16, 2013

It rained at Skilled Stadium and Melbourne had trouble in getting the ball into its forward half. The Demons managed a pitiful 19 incursions into the forward 50 (a record low) against 70 from the Cats. There are those who think it won't be much better this week.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

B: Lynden Dunn, James Frawley, Colin Garland

HB: Jeremy Howe, Tom McDonald, Neville Jetta

C: Jack Grimes, Bernie Vince, Jordie McKenzie

HF: Matt Jones, Cam Pedersen, Jack Watts

F: Rohan Bail, Chris Dawes, Jack Viney

FOLL: Mark Jamar, Dom Tyson, Nathan Jones

I/C: Dean Kent, Aidan Riley, Luke Tapscott, Dean Terlich

EMG: Sam Blease, Max Gawn, Christian Salem

IN: Neville Jetta, Aidan Riley, Luke Tapscott

OUT: Dom Barry, Max Gawn, Christian Salem

GEELONG

B: Corey Enright, Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie

HB: Cameron Guthrie, Harry Taylor, Jared Rivers

C: Jimmy Bartel, Joel Selwood, Travis Varcoe

HF: Allen Christensen, Shane Kersten, Jordan Murdoch

F: Steven Motlop, Tom Hawkins, Steve Johnson

FOLL: Hamish McIntosh, James Kelly, Josh Caddy

I/C: Mark Blicavs, Mitch Duncan, Brad Hartman,George Horlin-Smith

EMG: Jed Bews, Dawson Simpson, Billie Smedts

IN: James Kelly

OUT: Jed Bews (omitted)

It's a common story whenever Melbourne plays that it has to achieve a substantial breakthrough even to think of winning a game.

This week's opposition, Geelong, has not only won the last nine encounters between the teams - it has done so by an average winning margin of 12 goals. These wins have come at the MCG, at the Cattery, in fine weather and foul, in wind and driving rain.

If that's not enough, Melbourne has to butter up after a loss up in the tropical Top End. Not only does it have a problem winning games up there, it has even more difficulty in winning games immediately after the long trip north.

And if that doesn't take care of the Demons, let's not forget that the Cats have a top four spot at stake and defeat at the hands of a bottom four team would surely be a catastrophe for them and the sleepy hollow of a town they represent.

It would seem that the Demons' selectors have recognised some of the issues facing the team of late by omitting a few youngsters in Dom Barry, Max Gawn and Christian Salem and replacing them with a few stronger, harder bodied types like Aidan Riley and Luke Tapscott along with Neville Jetta returning from suspension.

But the Demons need more than just a harder edge - they need a capacity to score, more avenues to goal and a way to move the ball a little more quickly than they have done of late.

They have this penchant in recent times of kicking ridiculously low scores of three, four or five goals and with the conditions likely to be fairly dire - showers easing and local hail - I'm not holding out much hope of a big score. In terrible conditions last year, the Dees averaged less than five inside 50 entries per quarter for a total of four goals. On last week's form against the Dockers, can we expect much more?

If there is to be a chance, then it might come in the most unlikely of places - the middle of the ground where Geelong has struggled to win clearances and create goal scoring opportunities for itself. If the likes of the Jones boys, Jack Viney and Dom Tysom can take charge at the stoppages and at the feet of an in form Mark Jamar and Jordie McKenzie can take care of Joel Selwood, there might be a brief ray of hope.

But I wouldn't be holding my breath waiting.

Geelong by 37 points