This is a bit early as I'm heading away for a couple of days.

ROUND 16

Collingwood v Adelaide

Form: Decent vs Average

Head to Head: Pies with the last 5

Pies’ Favour: Hit form big time last weekend on the same stage. Will enjoy a massive home ground advantage and have the wood over the Crows of late. Possible return of Beams would be massive but, regardless, the Pies should have too much class through the middle and through Cloke for the Crows.They prefer to be underdogs so it’ll be interesting to see how they respond this week - flashbacks of their letdown against the Swans after rolling the Cats though Adelaide are not in that league.

Crows’ Favour: Somehow they’re still alive for finals (albeit a longshot) and will have nothing to lose. For guys like Dangermouse and VBV, that could spell a run on at the G and, if Jenkins and Jacobs can get going, they could be tricky to handle.

Verdict: Really, this screams of an end of season mid-low table clash between two clubs not going far this year. Collingwood have found an Ace in the form of Ben Reid which could aid their Septermber charge but they still don’t seem much like their Premiership side as all 22 refuse to click for 4 quarters. If they do, however, watch out. The Pies have the wood on the Crows and won’t let this one drop. A good run-in to the finals will see the Pies pressing their claims late-on and they’ll be looking to hit form. Adelaide won’t go away easily but Collingwood will have too much class through the middle, too many goalkickers and a defense that can cover the Crows forwards - especially after McKernan’s “brain”-fade.

Tip: Pies by 37

Port Adelaide v Hawthorn

Form: Around the mark vs On the money

Head to head: Hawks with the last 4

Power’s favour: At home, Port Adelaide showed in consecutive weeks that they can be hard to stop. Relentless at the footy, attacking with ball in hand and potentially potent in front of goal, the Power midfield has got on top of two of the better midfields in the game in recent weeks. Letting a massive opportunity last week may kick them into action, the Power will be itching to keep their spot in the 8 intact.

Hawks’ favour: They’re be absolutely smarting after last week’s outing. In all honesty, they never really looked like winning (in any deserved fashion, anyhow). They’ll be looking to get back to controlling the footy and using it well. The return of Guerra would add some much beloved grunt at the Brown and Gold and Cyril will be better for the run.

Verdict: A tricky match to read, this one. It’s difficult to ignore Port’s devastating blitz against the Swans or absolute control of the Pies. Unfortunately, it’s equally as tough to disregard their insipid show against the Tigers or their inability to put away an undermanned Bombers side last week (albeit away from home). If they can put enough pressure on the ball carrier, they will go a long way to pushing the Hawks. The loss of Westhoff, however, could be costly. Hawthorn should be able to dominate Power inside 50s and they will find it hard to score against Gibson and co. Hawthorn may have lost last week, but it can’t be forgotten that they had won 12 in a row beforehand and are still, arguably, the best team in the league. Also, their last 3 wins against the Power have come at an average of 94 points. All in all, Power have the ability to pressure the Hawks’ mids (which the Cats showed last week can murder the Hawks) but overall will lack the firepower to make it count. Hawthorn will be smarting and, if they’re harder at the footy than Port, may just make this another demolition.

Tip: Hawks by 43

Geelong v Melbourne

Form: Geelongesque vs Slight improvements

Head to heard: Cats with the last 8 (cop that, Hawks)

Cats’ favour: Three pretty big ones here.

1. They’re at home.

1. They’re Geelong.
2. They’re playing Melbourne.

They have too much class in the middle, creative forwards and quality, seasoned defenders. Furthermore, they can adapt their game plan at the drop of the hat and showed against Freo that they can be incredibly hard to score against - whilst scoring a bucket-load themselves.

Demons’ favour: This game will go the standard length. Last week’s outing against the Swans was better than anything seen in the first half of the season. Genuine attack at the ball, protection of ball players, some continued aggressive use of the footy had the Demons looking less Melbourne and more...a slightly better team. Still not enough quality players anyone on the park but, especially, on the ball.

Verdict: How far Geelong? Interestingly, they’re not intent on winning clearances. That should come as great news for Melbourne’s brigade of onballers who suffer severe forms of allergy when it comes to this statistic. It’ll be hard to see the Cats switched on, for a range of reasons, and Melbourne showed last year that it can relatively match a disinterested Cats outfit. Look for Melbourne to be annoying for most of the afternoon, but only for those who have backed Geelong over the line.

Tip: Cats by 57

Richmond v Gold Coast

Form: Shown up? vs Fading

Head to head: Gold Coast with a perfect 2 from 2

Tigers’ favour: Surely their flogging at the hands of North will wake them from the slumber that usually arrives for this fixture and they won’t drop it for a third time. I rated North to win last week but was surprised by the margin and the ease. Richmond will need to rebound hard to regain a little respect - and they have the players to do it and are still, overall, a better team than the Suns.

Suns’ favour: In a way, they might benefit from having their finals chances shot. 3 weeks ago they sat at 5-6 with finals a realistic prospect. 0-3 later and it’s back to development and backing themselves in. They’ll enter this game with confidence and, possibly more importantly, Gary Ablett Jnr. The man is simply a freak and could keep them in this fixture on his own if needs be.

Verdict: This game will follow similar patterns for the Suns of late. They’ll enter with confidence, will take it up to the Tigers but ultimately I think they’ll fade as Richmond’s improved ball use and organization down back pays dividends. Gold Coast won’t get the easy goals they managed last year and Richmond will be out to atone for last week’s poor showing.

Tip: Tigers by 32

Carlton v St Kilda

Form: Revealed vs Plucky

Head to head: Saints love this fixture. Have won the past 4, the Blues won the two before that but the Saints won the 12 before that.

Blues’ favour: ... One could argue that last week was an anomaly. 7 losses by under 23 points previously, the Blues terrible outing was probably one out of the box. It also shouldn’t be forgotten that they dominated the Pies early with the Blues trademark - soft frontrunning. Notwithstanding, Carlton have shown lately that they can go close to much better sides and have shown the important knack of beating sides below them. So much depends on Waite - far too much in my view. Betts may not get up, but that’ll probably be a bonus for the Blues who simply cannot carry so many people who only contribute one way.

Saints’ favour: They’re coming off an immensely impressive display. All and sundry expected a flogging last weekend, and that was before their inspirational skipper pulled out. Through the undeniable Lenny Hayes, the Saints even pulled within 3 points of the much higher-rated Dockers mid-way through the last. St Kilda also have a love affair with playing the Blues, winning 16 of the past 18 - and one of the losses was by a meagre 3 points.

Verdict: Which Carlton turns up? You’d have to say they’ll come ready to play. If they play the way they did against the Swans, they’ll get the points. All-in-all they should have too much class for St Kilda who would welcome back Saint Nick with open arms. St Kilda’s form in the fixture will count for something and they’ll take heart from their showing last Sunday. Carlton should get the points in a bit of an arm wrestle that, in the greater scheme, will mean absolutely nothing.

Tip: Blues by 28

Brisbane vs North Melbourne

Form: Quarter by Quarter vs Finding the mark

Head to head: North with the last 3 and 4 of the last 5

Lions’ favour: They love a game at home. Regularly, this Lions outfit has shown over the years that it can match it with anyone at the GABBA - at any point of the game! Tough midfielders are a dime a dozen up there and big Berger is finally showing his wares with a bit of fitness behind him. Another stat (that will appear later on) is that North hate the Gabba.

Roos’ favour: Finally - North Melbourne have turned the corner... Well...they’re approaching the corner anyway. Saturday was a huge step for this football club. Roos players were able to unleash their frustrations of a wasted season out on a hapless Tigers outfit that simply couldn’t match the Roos in any meaningful way. Somehow, the Roos are only two games out of finals (less percentage) and have a run-in that includes Carlton, Melbourne before a tough final 5. If they’re to be any show for a finals surge, this is a must win. Shinboner spirit? *

Verdict: North. This really could be anything and I wouldn’t be surprised if they choke again (after all, kicking quick goals is Brisbane’s forte and North hate stopping a run-on) but I think North should get the job done. More to play for, more ball users and some dangerous forwards should prove too much for Brisbane. In all honesty, I’m never 100% sure how North do get their wins - but I know it needs all players playing their part. Helpfully, Moloney and Black will miss - this could prove trouble for Redden and Rockliff as Greenwood and Hine focus in on the two playmakers. Remarkably, North have only won twice at the Gabba in 11 outings. Nevertheless, I think the Rooboys will get it done. The margin is the tricky bit. My gut tells me it’ll be close. North’s average winning margin is 57 points. Brisbane’s average losing margin is 44. North beat Brisbane by 63 earlier this season. I’ll provide two tips I think!

Tips: North by 15 or 48

Sydney vs GWS

Form: Winning vs Losing

Head to head: Swans 3-0

Swans’ favour: See Geelong (Above). They’re a machine who are just getting the job done - mostly in a pretty low gear. Gun midfielders are now being complemented by a dominate key forward - not seen in Sydney since BBBBH. It’ll be interesting to see if Rohan returns as I note he is available in the injury list and this could be the game to come in for.

Giants’ favour: The SCG is a nice ground to visit. They may also be heartened by a half decent showing against the Dogs - leading at all changes only to be pipped at the line by experiences.

Verdict: Similar to last week for the Swans. It depends if/how much they care. Whilst they didn’t particularly seem to care last week, they’ll be frustrated at letting a percentage boosting opportunity go to waste and they’ll want to hit some form before matches against WC (away) Richmond (home) Collingwood (A) Cats (A) and Hawks (h) over the last 7 rounds.

Tip: Swans by 94

Western Bulldogs v Essendon

Form: Terrible vs mind-boggling

Head to head: Bombers with the last 3 and 4 of the last 5

Dogs’ favour: Whilst they’ve been terrible for much of the season/last 12 months the Dogs still give the impression that, on their day, they can surprise teams. They’ve pushed Geelong and Freo and rolled higher-fancied sides in St Kilda, Brisbane and Port. Essendon are surely due a down game and, if the Dogs are on their toes, they may be able to sneak a surprise ala 2000.

Bombers’ favour: They have a list full of players who seem to be playing every game like it will be their last. Had every reason to lose last week but refused to. Will miss Watson and Stanton but still have enough run and arrogance through the middle to bulldoze most sides. Prone to let-downs, they’ll need to make sure they’re up for this one.

Verdict: The Bombers’ will be without their inspirational skipper Jobe Watson and, most likely, the handy Brent Stanton. Unfortunately for the Dogs, they’re missing their own talisman Matthew Boyd. Whilst there’s a nagging thought in my mind that the Dogs will be plucky, I’m also aware that they were terrible against Melbourne and lucky against a worse side than the Dees. The margin could be of interest. Bombers have won 11 by 10 by under 46. I’m tipping this to split the difference between their two worst losses at the Dome this year.

Tip: Bombers by 63 (but wouldn’t at all be surprised with a result under 5 goals)

West Coast v Fremantle

Saving the best for last!

Form: Finding it vs Doing what needs to be done

Head to head: Freo with the last 2, Eagles with the 3 before that and the Dockers with the 7 before that.

Eagles’ favour: This could be the game they need at the perfect time. Have been finding a bit of touch of late, the Eagles now need to prove themselves on the top stage. They’ll be concerned that they’ve fallen short a couple of times in the big games this season and what better chance to flex their muscles than against the Dockers in the Derby? Waters out hurts but they could welcome back Shuey, Kerr, Selwood and Butler.

Dockers’ favour: They’re in form and have the Pav. Freo have made Patersons a bit of a fortress this year (going 7 for 8 with a shock loss accounting for the non-matching numeral) and they have already beaten West Coast this year. They have only lost to teams above them on the ladder this season.

Verdict: Who could know? Honestly, for every argument one can fathom for one side winning, another one jumps out pointing to the opposite. Pav’s return is massive for the Dockers - but McPharlin’s loss is arguably worse than Pav’s is good. Freo have regularly beaten sides below them this year and this is the exact kind of match the West Coast have been losing all season (Hawthorn, Essendon, Richmond, Carlton). Indeed, the Eagles haven’t beaten a single team above them on the ladder in 2013. Having said that, it’s the Derby. Form can get stuffed and West Coast are due to welcome back some very handy players. When it’s all said and done, this will be a very close game. Both teams will try and implement their press, here is where Freo have the distinct advantage. Minimizing the advantage, however, is the fact that Freo’s press often doesn’t lead to a great deal of scoring, meaning that West Coast may never be out of this game no matter how much the faulter. With Lecras, Cox, Kennedy and Darling looming - that could be a danger sign for Freo.

Tip: Fremantle by 7 (but either side under 15 really)

Match of the Round: Dockers/Eagles

Upset of the Round: Eagles/Lions/Dogs

Thrashing of the Round: Swans

Closest Tip Last Week: Missed the Bombers by 4

* Note: I hate Shinboner spirit and every reference to it (including the above). Anyone notice, while we’re on the subject, how it completely avoided reference in the first half of season 2013?

How Mcglynn can get more weeks than Mckernan is beyond me - the MRP is a disgrace and needs to be over-hauled.