Measuring the success of a developing team

[Ouch! 2,258]

Was just thinking with how the team is performing this year about the best way to measure success... or perhaps improvement of the team in a developmental phase which we are no doubt in at the moment.

The easy way is wins and comparing that to last year and saying 8 wins is better than 5 so we must be improving. But given that AFL operates in a compromised draw, and with the inclusion of GWS and GC in the last couple of years it's not exactly a good measurement. Especially for teams such as ours that has a new coach, new football department and a new game plan.

Now it is obvious that Mark Neeld is more focused upon measuring thing in terms of quarters won, desire indicators, contested possessions etc, rather than wins, and that wins are an outcome that comes from winning against the other team in these indicators. It's also understandable for him to be focused on these short term measurements.

I think for us as supporters ... that going through a development phase (yes another one.) it might be possible to look at the team we came up against, whether they are trending up or down, and measuring the outcome in comparison to how we have performed against them in previous years.

As an example this year

• Round 1 Brisbane (trending up) Loss, and compared to last year we beat them both home and away, so a negative result
  
• Round 2 West Coast (Trending up, and peaking) Big loss, but we lost convincingly to them last year, still rate it as a negative result
  
• Round 3 Richmond (Trending up) Big loss, last year we won one, and lost one, so a negative result
  
• Round 4 Bulldogs (Trending Down) Loss, but we haven't really been in the hunt against them for several years (except the game in the wet that scully went crazy in the final quarter) I'd almost rate this as a neutral result ....
  
• Round 5 Saints (Holding Steady, neither trending up or down IMO) Close loss, but we have been smashed by them for a few years now, and we pushed them, so relatively speaking its a positive result.
  

Now there is no science involved in them above musings, but I thought it would be interesting to see others thoughts...., or whether people have other ways of measuring our success (or indeed lack of success)

Incidentally there comes a time that development has to translate into wins. For instance the Kanga's have been accused for the last couple of years of being on the verge, but never being able to take a big scalp, the game against Geelong no doubt is a big indicator for improvement for them, Richmond is also a team that seems to be getting "honorable losses" but ultimately they need to land some scalps before they can be seen to be improving to the level that is required.

The next 6-7 games will be interesting to measure because they are hard games.... and a measurement of where we are as a club and how we are progressing could be better defined over this period regardless of if we still end up being 0-11 than the second half of the season where we play GWS twice, Gold coast etc.... and possibly snag some 'cheaper' wins

Thoughts?

[PaulRB 6,352]

I agree with your analysis. My measurement is how many of the 4 quarters are in one of the following three categores

1. We're a Rabble

2. We're ok

3. We kick ass

The negative results you mentioned included at least one quarter of 1. (rabble). 186 was four quarters of this...

The positive results have been 4 quarters of 2. (ok). I'm yet to see a quarter of 3.

If we can avoid any quarters of 1. for the next 6 weeks we will have truly stabalised and turned the corner, with a couple of quarters of 3. next on the agenda.