RUNNING WITH THE ODDS

RUNNING WITH THE ODDS by the Oracle

Can the Melbourne Football Club recover from the humiliation it received from Hawthorn when it was comprehensively spanked in every facet of the game during the last half capitulation?

Demon supporters were seen leaving the MCG on Sunday evening tearing out their hair and grimacing in pain after such a pitiful performance. President Jim Stynes labelled the club's second-half as unacceptable and called for the leaders to step up and make a stand against the Brisbane Lions in the next game.

Now that things have settled down somewhat, the Demons must be comforted by the fact that they not only play host to the lowly Brisbane Lions but their opponent is heavily depleted without their skipper Jonathan Brown and a handful of others and playing at a venue where they have won just one of their past eight matches. However, I wouldn't draw too much comfort from this.

The Lions’ last two outings against the Demons might have been Mickey Mouse stuff but they still acquitted themselves very well. Back in Shanghai in October, a young Brisbane side led all day to be overrun by a singlehanded patch of brilliance from Liam Jurrah. During the NAB Challenge series in March Brisbane accounted for a lacklustre Melbourne rather easily.

I've been around for long enough to know that the results of these games don't deserve to get too much prominence but I simply cannot fathom how, on last week’s display, the bookies have Melbourne a favourite at $1.18 to wallop the Lions.

In many ways, Melbourne has certainly not been able to live up to the hype from before the pre season that suggested that the team was on the cusp of winning back the respect of the football world. That is exactly what was happening late last year when the club smashed the Sydney Swans and Brisbane and wee an outside chance of making the finals before bravely going down to the Hawks in Round 20. The club lost their last three matches of 2010 and have yet to win this season so they really are limping into this week’s encounter.

The Demon midfield has only been able to perform intermittently but there is a real problem with the forward line with the team scoring 11 and 12 goals respectively in the opening two games. We haven’t seen any big bags of goals from Lynden Dunn, Liam Jurrah, Brad Green or Jack Watts and the little men up forward have been unable to get among the goals. Things will have to change in these departments if the club is to secure its first win for the season on Sunday.

THE GAME Melbourne v Brisbane at The MCG - Sunday, 10 April 2011 at 1.10pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 18 wins Brisbane 10 wins

MCG Melbourne 3 Brisbane 2 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 7 wins Brisbane 7 wins

The Coaches Bailey 2 wins Voss 1 win

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports1 Live at 1.00pm

RADIO ABC 774, 1116 SEN

THE BETTING Melbourne $1.18 Brisbane $4.90

THE LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 11.8.74 defeated Brisbane Lions 7.11.53 at The Gabba Round 19, 2010

Melbourne took the lead early and established a handy lead at half time on a humid Brisbane evening. With rains threatening the big lead at the main break looked as if it might be enough but, as usual with the Demons, there were a few heart flutters before they stumbled home with a late goal or two. Colin Sylvia was the catalyst for the Demons’ win and was best on ground.

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Luke Tapscott James Frawley Clint Bartram

Half backs Jared Rivers Colin Garland Jamie Bennell

Centreline Colin Sylvia Jack Grimes Rohan Bail

Half forwards Austin Wonaeamirri Stef Martin Jack Trengove

Forwards Jamie Brad Green Liam Jurrah Jordan Gysberts

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Aaron Davey

Interchange (from) Lynden Dunn Nathan Jones Cale Morton Ricky Petterd James Strauss Matthew Warnock Jack Watts

In Jordan Gysberts Cale Morton James Strauss Matthew Warnock Austin Wonaeamirri

Out Neville Jetta Addam Maric

BRISBANE

Backs Cheynee Stiller Daniel Merrett Jed Adcock

Half backs Ashley McGrath Joel Patfull Pearce Hanley

Centreline Jack Redden Simon Black Tom Rockliff

Half forwards Jesse Ryan Lester Luke Power

Forwards Todd Banfield Mitchell Clark James Polkinghorne

Followers Matthew Leuenberger Andrew Raines Daniel Rich

Interchange (from) Claye Beams Rohan Bewick Eamonn Buchanan Tom Collier Aaron Cornelius Broc McCauley Jared Polec

In Tom Collier Aaron Cornelius Jared Polec

Out

ONE WEEK AT A TIME

If Melbourne was disappointing last week then what about the struggling Lions? They copped a 78-point shellacking at the hands of the Western Bulldogs and without Brown, Brent Staker and the now departed Brendan Fevola they are struggling up forward as much as their hosts if not more.

Notwithstanding this they have a good mix of mature players and youth and all they need to do is show some enthusiasm for the win and they might well pull of a surprise in this game. Black, Power and Rich constitute a solid midfield that will worry the Demons’ one paced midfield although if Grimes starts in the middle, we could all be in for a surprise. He came to the club from Under 18 ranks as a midfielder and, in a brief hit out there in a practice game last year at Visy Park, he was simply sensational. A few of us at Demonland have been waiting for a good while to see him play there again and the move could be an inspirational one. Heaven knows, the Dees need some inspiration after last week.

I’m not going to argue with the bookies but I think the margin will be a lot closer than the posted odds suggest.

Melbourne by 3 points.