CROSSING THE RUBICON

[Demonland 73,326]

CROSSING THE RUBICON by JVM

It might well be my imagination but I have this feeling that the Melbourne Football Club came close to crossing its Rubicon last week against the Sydney Swans. The young Demon side came from 25 points down in the shadow of three quarter time to almost steal what would have been a stunning victory. In years gone past, the team might well have capitulated in that situation leaving its fans lamenting at a possible eight or nine goal defeat. This time however, it clawed its way back into the game to hit the front with three minutes to go. From there the result could have gone either way and in the end it finished in perfect balance – 84 points each and the clubs shared the premiership points on offer.

There was a glaring statistic from the game and that was that the hard ball gets for the day were weighted heavily in favour of the young Demons. This means that their engine room was working overtime and I dare say perhaps if their skills, particularly in the final quarter, would have matched their endeavour, the result might have been a resounding Melbourne victory. Coaches, players and supporters can bemoan the close misses and lost opportunities but for now it’s water under the bridge and the Dees can take out of the result the fact that they are harder and tougher than they were last year and the year before.

Which is a good thing because this week the club meets its former merger partner, a team that has frequently monstered their lighter bodied opponents and imparted great misery. Over the past four seasons, Hawthorn has won on every occasion these teams have met. That counts for six AFL premiership games where the average winning margin is close to 50 points and three pre season matches, the last of which took place less than a month ago at Launceston. I know these games count for naught but the Demons dominated the first quarter of their recent stoush, allowed the Hawks to come back just before half time and were overrun in the last half.

So what will it take for Melbourne to cross the Rubicon and overrun Hawthorn which has been the bane of Dean Bailey’s existence since he took over the club’s coaching mantle. His first day at the office saw the Hawks’ rolling zones, pace, run and total superiority cause destruction and havoc to the tune of a 104 point shellacking. The Hawks had a nightmare start to 2010 winning only one of its first seven matches but they were good enough to beat the Demons in round one last year by 56 points. In the return game, the margin was 21 points but it was enough to snuff out what little hope they had of making the finals. Of course, we moaned and groaned about the umpires and the loss of Aaron Davey but in the end they were just too strong and too good.

Despite being considered a top four proposition, Hawthorn has made a poor start to this season as well losing to Adelaide after holding a five goal lead. It went the other way to Melbourne which made up almost that deficit to at least pick up a couple of premiership points. The Hawks won’t want to lose a second game and they have their twin towers poised as their major weapon to overcome the Demons. With James Frawley back after a stint out with a pectoral muscle tear and Colin Garland after a promising showing against Adam Goodes, there is likely to be great interest in these battles but I believe that Melbourne’s chances of winning will be dictated strongly by the ability of its midfield to win the hard ball. Can Brent Moloney, Colin Sylvia and Nathan Jones overcome the Sam Mitchell’s, Brad Sewell’s and Jordan Lewises (all of them!)? And will there be enough delivery into the forward line for Laim Jurrah and Jack Watts to kick goals this week? If the answer is in the positive, then the club might well cross its Rubicon on Sunday.

THE GAME Hawthorn v Melbourne at the MCG Sunday 3 April 2011 at 4.40pm.

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Hawthorn 78 wins Melbourne 74 wins

At MCG Hawthorn 37 wins Melbourne 35 wins

Since 2000 Hawthorn 12 wins Melbourne 5 wins

The Coaches Clarkson 5 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 4.30pm (live)

RADIO ABC774 SEN TripleM 3AW

THE BETTING Hawthorn to win $1.42 Melbourne to win $2.85

LAST TIME THEY MET Hawthorn 15.9.99 defeated Melbourne 12.6.78 in Round 20, 2010, at the MCG

It was the last roll of the dice for the Demons who had to win the game to keep their slim hopes of making the finals alive. They led early, lost Aaron Davey in the second quarter and bravely and grimly held on in the face of some questionable umpiring. It was Luke Hodge with two goals early in the final quarter who created a wedge between the teams and though they tried hard, the Demons went down by 21 points in a fighting effort.

THE TEAMS

HAWTHORN

Backs Rick Ladson Stephen Gilham Benjamin Stratton

Half backs Grant Birchall Josh Gibson Cameron Bruce

Centreline Chance Bateman Sam Mitchell Shane Savage

Half forwards Clinton Young Lance Franklin Shaun Burgoyne

Forwards David Hale Jarryd Roughead Cyril Rioli

Followers Brent Renouf Luke Hodge Brad Sewell

Interchange Jordan Lewis Michael Osborne Liam Shiels Matt Suckling

Emergencies Xavier Ellis Brent Guerra Brendan Whitecross

In Luke Hodge

Out Brendan Whitecross

MELBOURNE

Backs Clint Bartram James Frawley Jared Rivers

Half backs Jack Grimes Colin Garland Luke Tapscott

Centreline Jamie Bennell Colin Sylvia Jack Trengove

Half forwards Rohan Bail Lynden Dunn Liam Jurrah

Forwards Aaron Davey Brad Green Jack Watts

Followers Mark Jamar Brent Moloney Nathan Jones

Interchange Neville Jetta Addam Maric Stef Martin Ricky Petterd

Emergencies Joel Macdonald Jake Spencer Matthew Warnock

In James Frawley

Out Joel Macdonald

Umpires Chamberlain Donlon Gleeson and Stewart

In a round where the number of "ins" will approach a record (thanks to Gold Coast having 22 "ins" for their first game), James Frawley is a highly significant inclusion for the Demons. With the possible exception of the first week of the pre season, Melbourne’s defence has looked like a ship without a rudder in the absence of All Australian Frawley. The players who have filled in have tried hard but they have been unable to impose the same sort of presence that Frawley did in his breakout season last year. The big question is whether a player who was injured in mid January and has not played a game in the interim, can come up against one of Hawthorn’s twin towers. Given the amount of time out and the potential lack of match fitness which comes with this, it will be a hard ask to pit Frawley against Franklin despite the fact that Frawley beat his man when they clashed late last year in what was one of the best duels of the season. Indeed, had the umpires not been so overly generous to the crack Hawthorn forward, he might have been reduced to a very ordinary performance on the day.

Bailey could well decide to give Colin Garland first dibs on Franklin (Garland did well on him back in round 9, 2008) and Frawley could take on Roughead in the circumstances but the Dees will also need to be wary in defence of David Hale who they also chased over trade week.

The danger players for Melbourne will be Brad Sewell who Melbourne almost snared in a trade deal that went terribly wrong a few years ago. Sewell has polled Brownlow votes in each of his past three matches against Melbourne while Sam Mitchell (38 disposals last week) is also a constant thorn in Melbourne’s side.

Then there is Cameron Bruce who will be the centre of interest given this is the first time he faces his old club. Along with retired captain James McDonald, Bruce was virtually the voice of the club over the past two years, talking up a team that was a very ordinary conveyance at the time. His task now is to suspend disbelief and form this supporter’s point of view, I look forward to him hitting some Demon targets for once.

Melbourne to win by 10 points.