THE GAME IS IN A STATE OF FLUX

[Demonland 71,238]

THE GAME IS IN A STATE OF FLUX by JVM

There are some strange things happening in the football world. Unexpected events like last year's grand finalists Geelong and St. Kilda both losing when they were expected to win. Like last year's wooden spooner Melbourne tapping on the door to the top eight and beating the top side last week. Like Sydney, which has lost so many talented and experienced players occupying top spot on the ladder and unfancied Fremantle sitting in the top four.

No, we're not in a Bizarro World where everything is topsy turvy and the opposite of what is expected happens as a matter of routine.

They tell us it's just an aberration and that things will settle down in a week or two ... but what if they don't?

Take the Demons. Here is a team which after five rounds has already won as many games as it did in all of the 2008 season and just one less than they did last year. It's only a month ago that this team was the butt of all jokes and looked upon with disdain by those who professed to know everything. And yet, had Rohan Bail's pass to Ricky Petterd arrived a split second earlier and caressed his fingertips a few millimetres closer to the mark then this mob would have been in the top four themselves.

Of course, all that means nothing because it ain't over until it's over and there's a lot more water to flow under the bridge but there does seem to be something happening at Demonland.

And may it keep getting better by the week.

THE GAME

North Melbourne v Melbourne on Saturday 1 May 2010 at Etihad Stadium at 2.10 pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall North Melbourne 65 wins Melbourne 83 wins 1 draw

At Etihad Stadium North Melbourne 3 wins Melbourne 0 wins

Since 2000 North Melbourne 9 wins Melbourne 7 wins

The Coaches Scott 0 wins Bailey 0 wins

MEDIA

Channel 10 - on delay from 3.00pm

RADIO - I went to the AFL site to find out who was doing the radio broadcast and kept getting an advertisement for Betfair betting on the footy. I think this is probably the lowest and most sleasy form of advertising for gambling you can get. Having said that - see the betting on the game immediately below.

THE BETTING North Melbourne to win $2.10 Melbourne to win $1.75

LAST TIME THEY MET North Melbourne 19.9.123 defeated Melbourne 8.13.61 at Etihad Stadium in Round 19 2009

The Kangaroos dominated in the big man department (Goldstein – 5 goals; Petrie starred) and Brent Harvey was the game breaker, winning the three Brownlow Medal votes on offer in a canter. The Demons, who were severely undermanned with a long injury list, were embarrassing.

THE TEAMS

NORTH MELBOURNE

Backs Michael Firrito Scott Thompson Brady Rawlings

Half backs Nathan Grima Lachlan Hansen Sam Wright

Centreline Jack Ziebell Ben Cunnington Ryan Bastinac

Half forwards Aaron Edwards Todd Goldstein Brent Harvey

Forwards Daniel Wells David Hale Ben Warren

Followers Hamish McIntosh Andrew Swallow Liam Anthony

Interchange Leigh Adams Levi Greenwood Scott McMahon Lindsay Thomas

Emergencies Cruize Garlett Ben Ross Josh Smith

In Sam Wright

Out Gavin Urquhart (knee)

MELBOURNE

Backs James McDonald Matthew Warnock James Frawley

Half backs Cameron Bruce Colin Garland Clint Bartram

Centreline Jack Trengove Aaron Davey Nathan Jones

Half forwards Brad Green Ricky Petterd Lynden Dunn

Forwards Colin Sylvia Matthew Bate Stefan Martin

Followers Mark Jamar Jack Grimes Brent Moloney

Interchange Jamie Bennell Joel MacDonald Jordie McKenzie Tom Scully

Emergencies Rohan Bail Jared Rivers Jake Spencer

No change

THE MONKEY OFF THE BACK

North Melbourne is one of those sides that has had the wood on Melbourne over the past few seasons. The Kangaroos have emerged victorious at the last six meetings between these clubs and generally these games have not been pretty for the Demons. Indeed, their average losing margin against North over the three years from 2007 to 2009 has been just under 40 points.

On that basis, it's difficult to comprehend that Melbourne is starting as favourite in Saturday's game despite the fact that eight home and away games ago, the same team beat it at the same venue by 10 goals.

But things can and do change quickly in a vibrant competition like the AFL where form can be fickle and good form can be paramount. The fact is that the Demons are flying at the moment with three wins in a row and that is a result of having a team that is brim full of confidence and self-belief. Their main ruckman Mark Jamar is in rare career best form and, if he continues in this vein, he will be a chance for All Australian honours at the end of the year.

Moreover, the Big Russian's presence around the ground has given the hitherto ineffectual Melbourne midfield a major lift. Skipper James McDonald has been constant since he reached football's middle age but the likes of Brent Moloney and Nathan Jones have stepped up a notch or two and have given the midfield some extra grunt to match the youth and exuberance of recruits Tom Scully and Jack Trengove and the AFL's most improved young player Jordie McKenzie.

North also has an emerging young midfield but it will be the usual suspect Brent Harvey who is the danger man for Melbourne. If he can turn on one of 30 plus possession games which are his norm against the Dees (and just about everybody else) then it could spell trouble. And what a matchup it would be if Daniel Wells stood Aaron Davey?

The last time they played, the Kangaroos had too much tall timber up forward for the Demons. Tomorrow, it should be a more level playing field with Frawley and Hale matched up and Warnock taking on Edwards. Garland is there in the wings in case any back up is needed.

The Demons have some dangerous medium sized forwards in Ricky Petterd and Colin Sylvia and it's been pleasing during the early stage of their revival to see others coming in to share the load of scoring goals.

In the end it all comes down to form and while North have been patchy in recent weeks, Melbourne has been high on confidence so while the Kangaroos can boast about having the edge in recent seasons, it's the Demons who are close to the form team of the competition and that's why I'm selecting them to get this monkey off their backs.

Melbourne by 10 points.

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