RIPE FOR THE PICKING

by JVM

No AFL team has ever comfortably fitted into the national capital and I don't really have an explanation for this other than to speculate that a city full of politicians, career diplomats and bureaucrats is never going to ignite passion for the game. Years ago, our brand of football reigned in Canberra. It even produced a true champion in Alex Jesaulenko. Then Rugby League took the initiative with the Canberra Raiders and our game took a back seat.

The AFL briefly experimented with Fitzroy which was already in its death throes, followed by the Kangaroos, the Bulldogs and finally the Demons. There's an obvious common thread there and the guarantee of $300k for a struggling club is very tempting even if the powers that be throw in the strong Sydney Swans from up the road to draw in a crowd. Now the AFL is said to be considering a different tack by including the capital as part of the power base for the new club playing out of West Sydney.

In recent years, the prospect of hosting Sydney at Manuka has spoiled the party for the supposed "home side". Melbourne has been thrashed in both of its fixtures against Paul Roos' team, the past four encounters have seen the Swans win by an average of 42 points and, until recently, popular opinion suggested a threepeat was very much on the cards. The Demons haven't been all that flash on the road either having lost their last 18 games interstate since beating the Lions in the halcyon days of 2006 (round 14).

But Sydney ain't Sydney any more. The Swans are on the decline and even the "home" ground advantage of a game at the nearby national capital is no longer what it used to be. They were thrashed there earlier in the season by the Doggies. They've lost their goal kicking machine - the man who threw fear (and the odd cut lunch) into opposition defenders, old Micky O is retiring and has lost it anyway and injuries are starting to kick in. Roos was once able to command control of games tactically but he no longer has the cattle. This time, the Swans are ripe for the picking.

THE GAME

Melbourne v Sydney at the Manuka Oval Sunday 26 July 2009 at 1.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Melbourne 91 wins Sydney 108 wins 1 draw

At Manuka Melbourne 0 wins Sydney 2 wins

Since 2000 Melbourne 6 wins Sydney 11 wins

The Coaches Bailey 0 Roos 1

MEDIA

TV Fox Footy Channel at 1 pm (live)

RADIO ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Melbourne to win $2.40 - Sydney to win $1.53

LAST TIME THEY MET Sydney Swans 17.12.114 defeated Melbourne 11.8.74 at Manuka in Round 13, 2008

The Swans, with Barry Hall running rampant, got the early jump on the Dees and led by around five goals at each of the first two breaks. Matthew Bate and Austin Wonaeamirri put Melbourne back in the game in the third term and the deficit at three quarter time was pared back to 17 points before the Swans, mainly through Hall (5 goals) and Kirk too control. Bate finished with four goals and was Melbourne's best

THE TEAMS

MELBOURNE

Backs Lynden Dunn Matthew Warnock James Frawley

Half backs Brent Moloney Jared Rivers Cameron Bruce

Centreline Clint Bartram James McDonald Aaron Davey

Half forwards Jamie Bennell Michael Newton Cale Morton

Forwards Brad Miller Matthew Bate Liam Jurrah

Followers Stefan Martin Ricky Petterd Nathan Jones

Interchange (from) Rohan Bail Kyle Cheney Neville Jetta Paul Johnson Jordie McKenzie Shane Valenti Matthew Whelan

In Rohan Bail Kyle Cheney Paul Johnson Jordie McKenzie Brad Miller Michael Newton Shane Valenti Matthew Whelan

Out Jack Grimes (back) Brad Green (scaphoid) Mark Jamar (quad) Brock McLean (knee) Russell Robertson

New Rohan Bail (Mt Gravatt) Jordie McKenzie (Geelong Falcons)

SYDNEY

Backs Ed Barlow Lewis Roberts-Thomson Craig Bolton

Half backs Rhyce Shaw Heath Grundy Martin Mattner

Centreline Nick Smith Brett Kirk Jarrad McVeigh

Half forwards Ryan O'Keefe Adam Goodes Luke Ablett

Forwards Jesse White Michael O'Loughlin Daniel Hannebery

Followers Darren Jolly Kieran Jack Jude Bolton

Interchange (from) Paul Bevan Craig Bird Amon Buchanan Jarred Moore Michael Pyke Kristin Thornton Patrick Veszpremi

In Amon Buchanan Jarred Moore Michael Pyke Kristin Thornton

Out Ted Richards (chest)

SWAN SONG

There is a school of thought which maintains that Sydney can still make the finals but those who hold this view must have been on vacation and missed the last quarter of their game at Etihad Stadium last week when Carlton turned a 9 point lead into a 61 point mauling.

By way of contrast, the Demons' form against Geelong at Skilled Stadium was quite reasonable. It's true that they also had their one bad quarter when the Cats had the advantage of the wind when it was at its strongest but the Dees never capitulated like the Swans. This week they will relish a return to a game where the opposition pressure will be far less intense.

Much will depend on the battle in the midfield and upon the Demons' ability to contain Adam Goodes. The Brownlow Medallist doesn't really appreciate close checking and Lynden Dunn is just the man to match up on him. He has been known to harass and annoy the living suitcases out of opposition playmakers. He can run with them and get his own ball as well.

Melbourne has been hit hard by the injury and in particular to ruckman Mark Jamar, a big improver since returning to the side, but Paul Johnson has been killing them at Casey and should prove an adequate replacement. Together with Stef Martin, he should overcome Darren Jolly and give midfielders like the in form Brent Moloney, the run machine of Aaron Davey, hardnosed Nathan Jones and skipper James McDonald a platform with which to set up a win. The experience of Cam Bruce who is in good form should help tip the scales in favour of their team.

The Demon defence led by Matty Warnock, James Frawley and Jared Rivers will greatly appreciate the absence of a huge power forward in the opposition line up and frankly, I can't see where the Swans can kick a winning score.

Nor can I see the Swans' depleted backline in the absence of Ted Richards stopping the Melbourne forward line. Who do they have to curb the magical talents of the Warlpiri Wizard? And watch out for Brad Miller and Michael Newton who have been biding their time kicking goals and regaining their confidence at Casey.

The Demons have been down for far too long. Against a team that is on its last legs and looking down the barrel of a number of barren years they should finally break their Manuka hoodoo.

Melbourne by 27 points.