WINNING FORM IS GOOD FORM

[Demonland 73,140]

by Sam the Stats Man

If you run a line through the recent form of the two teams fighting it out on Saturday afternoon at the Cattery, it would seem a no brainer as to who should win.

One team has saluted at its last two starts while the other has lost two in a row, the second defeat marking a sensational 136 point turnaround that suggests it is on a downward spiral.

But things are not so cut and dried and for some strange reason the team with the losing form is still starting out a firm favourite to win. Perhaps this is because of the expected return of players of the calibre of Brownlow Medal favourite Gary Ablett, four-time All Australian Matthew Scarlett, Andrew Mackie and Travis Varcoe and the possible return of Darren Milburn and vice-captain Cameron Ling.

But who cares?

Not me because I know that Melbourne's prime movers in Cameron Bruce, Brad Green, Brock McLean and Brent Moloney have all struck a rich vein of form and the younger brigade headed by Rising Stars Jack Grimes and Liam Jurrah are causing a great deal of excitement among Demon fans. So I'm going to tip an upset - Melbourne by 1 point in the boilover of the season because winning form is good form.

[Editor's note: Readers will note from the above that we don't give Sam too many opportunities to make predictions about match results. Please read on however, for Sam's Statistical Summary of Melbourne 2009 to date]

THE GAME Geelong v Melbourne at Skilled Stadium on Saturday 18 July 2009 at 2.10pm

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Geelong 120 wins Melbourne 83 wins 2 draws

At Skilled Stadium Geelong 32 wins Melbourne 17 wins

Since 2000 Geelong 10 wins Melbourne 6 wins 1 draw

The Coaches Thompson 3 Bailey 0

MEDIA

TV Channel 10 at 3pm (1 hour delay)

RADIO ABC774 K-Rock SEN

THE BETTING Geelong to win $9.00 Melbourne to win $1.04

LAST TIME THEY MET Geelong 15.21.111 defeated Melbourne 10.8.68 at the MCG in Round 6 2009

An undermanned and undersized Geelong took on the AFL's giants at the MCG in front of a crowd of 36,932 witnessed a highly competitive effort from Melbourne against Geelong although the Cats were always going to win and the margin would undoubtedly have been much greater but for their inaccuracy in front of goal. Garry Ablett broke the Demons' hearts with a goal just 9 seconds into the game but to their credit, the Demons kept plugging away and were by no means humiliated as they were in Round 19 last year when they went down by 116 points in a massacre.

Russell Robertson marked his return with three goals and Aaron Davey was sensational for the losing side.

THE TEAMS

GEELONG

Backs Darren Milburn Matthew Scarlett Corey Enright

Half backs Harry Taylor Tom Harley Andrew Mackie

Centreline Joel Corey Cameron Ling David Wojcinski

Half forwards Mathew Stokes Cameron Mooney Shannon Byrnes

Forwards Paul Chapman Tom Hawkins Max Rooke

Followers Shane Mumford Joel Selwood Gary Ablett

Interchange Travis Varcoe Simon Hogan Tom Lonergan Kane Tenace

Emergergencies Tom Gillies Jeremy Laidler Trent West

In Gary Ablett Matthew Scarlett Andrew Mackie Travis Varcoe Cameron Ling and Darren Milburn

Out Jimmy Bartel (hip) Nathan Djerrkura (thigh) Mark Blake Ryan Gamble Jeremy Laidler Tom Gillies

MELBOURNE

Backs Cale Morton Matthew Warnock James Frawley

Half backs Brent Moloney Jared Rivers Jack Grimes

Centreline Neville Jetta Brock McLean Aaron Davey

Half forwards Cameron Bruce Matthew Bate Ricky Petterd

Forwards Russell Robertson Brad Green Liam Jurrah

Followers Mark Jamar,James McDonald Nathan Jones

Interchange Clint Bartram Lynden Dunn Stephan Martin Paul Wheatley

Emergencies Jamie Bennell Paul Johnson Brad Miller

In Clint Bartram

Out Daniel Bell (shoulder)

SAM'S STATISTICAL SUMMARY OF THE MELBOURNE 2009 LIST TO DATE

BAIL Rohan CFC Seniors 9 games, 0 goals, CFC Reserves - 1 game, 0 goals. Missed early games with injury and put in some handy performances before going into a bit of a form slump after being king hit behind the play against the Bullants. Seems to be regaining his tempo.

BARTRAM Clint MFC - 9 games, 1 goal, CFC Seniors - 6 games, 2 goals. Had a traumatic time with the passing of his father due to cancer and his form has been patchy. Starring recently with the Scorpions and deserves his elevation this week.

BATE Matthew MFC - 14 games, 20 goals. Is becoming more influential playing up forward but where he currently shares club goal kicking honours with Russell Robertson.

BELL Daniel MFC - 3 games, 0 goals, CFC Seniors - 6 games, 4 goals. Given the opportunity to play in the midfield during the preseason Bell was impressive before breaking a thumb in the last practice match and struggled at AFL level on return. Suffered a shoulder injury against Port Adelaide that has left his season in tatters.

BENNELL Jamie MFC - 12 games, 2 goals, CFC Seniors - 1 game, 1 goal. The teenager has been a revelation as a skilful running defender.

BLEASE Sam The speedy youngster broke an ankle in a playground incident at school before he had his chance to play and won't be seen till next year.

BRUCE Cameron MFC - 15 games, 9 goals. The prolific ball winner has played every game and has been important in the team's recent revival. Picked up 37 disposals in the game against Port Adelaide.

BUCKLEY Simon MFC - 1 game, 0 goals, CFC Seniors - 1 game, 0 goals, CFC Reserves - 2 games, 0 goals. Groin problems flared after he played in the season opener and he has been plagued by the injury ever since. Could return shortly through the VFL.

CHENEY Kyle MFC - 6 games, 0 goals, CFC Seniors - 7 games, 1 goals. The tough defender made an excellent debut game in round 1 before his form fell away a little. Has been on the fringes of AFL selection in recent times.

DAVEY Aaron MFC - 15 games , 5 goals. Continues to have a stand out season for the Demons and his form in defence has seen him in contention for All Australian selection this year.

DUNN Lynden MFC - 7 games, 5 goals, CFC Seniors - 6 games, 6 goals. Appeared to have fallen out of favour with selectors but played well on return last week.

FRAWLEY James MFC - 14 games , 1 goals. The club's biggest improver who has shown great poise and dash out of defence.

GARLAND Colin MFC - 1 game, 0 goals. The big improver of 2008 was showing signs of taking even more rapid steps up the ladder but a stress fracture in the leg has abruptly put an end to that and he won't be seen until next year.

GREEN Brad MFC - 11 games, 12 goals. The team's best player until he suffered a broken jaw in the team's early wins against the Tigers. Slotted straight back on return after missing over a month and is having a good year.

GRIMES Jack MFC - 9 games, 1 goals, CFC Seniors - 3 games, 1 goal. An injury setback after an impressive pre season limited him early but he has proven himself with some cool performances mainly in defence. NAB Rising Star nominee for Round 14.

HEALEY Rhys ® CFC Reserves - 6 games , 3 goals. We didn't see much of him the pre season and he was impressing in the Casey reserves until injured.

HUGHES Daniel ® CFC Seniors - 9 games, 14 goals, CFC Reserves - 2 games, 3 goals. Has done well in the firsts at Casey and deserves a break after a couple of seasons of debilitating injuries.

JAMAR Mark MFC - 4 games, 1 goals, CFC Seniors - 2 game, 2 goals. His season was curtailed by a stress fracture in the foot but has been a big improver in ruck on return to the Melbourne side.

JETTA Neville MFC - 9 games, 4 goals, CFC Seniors - 5 game, 9 goals. A fair start to a career from a player who has a touch of magic about him and should develop into a handy small man for the club.

JOHNSON Paul MFC - 13 games, 4 goals, CFC Seniors - 2 games, 1 goal. Has filled the role of backup ruckman at AFL level but is currently just going ok at Casey.

JONES Nathan MFC - 14 games, 5 goals. After a slow start to the season he stood up with some impressive performances as a strong on ball option for the Demons.

JURRAH Liam MFC - 4 games, 8 goals, CFC Seniors - 5 games, 14 goals, CFC Reserves - 2 games, 0 goals. Has been a revelation with his magical skills since making his AFL debut against Essendon a month ago. Received a NAB Rising Star nomination after his last up four goal performance against Port Adelaide.

MARIC Addam MFC - 6 games, 5 goals, CFC Seniors - 3 games, 3 goals. Started and ended his season with injury and wasn't able to show his wares as a handy crumbing forward who knows how to find the goals.

MARTIN Stefan MFC - 13 games, 4 goals, CFC Seniors - 2 games, 0 goals. After missing the season opener, has been a steady improver since returning to the team and has shown great versatility moving from defence to the ruck and into an occasional forward role.

McDONALD James MFC - 11 games, 2 goals. The skipper has overcome a mid-season knee scare and continues to provide steadiness to the midfield.

McKENZIE Jordie ® CFC Seniors - 11 games, 0 goals. The young rookie has been something of a surprise packet in the hard working Casey midfield. It would not surprise if he receives a late promotion to the senior list.

McLEAN Brock MFC - 15 games, 5 goals. Found it tough early after a long injury lay off but is really playing some good football as some of his old touch returns.

McNAMARA Tom CFC Seniors - 6 games, 4 goals, CFC Reserves - 1 game, 1 goal. Was playing well at Casey and would have been under consideration for a call up to the big stuff before injury intervened. Is now close to a return to the Scorpion team.

MEESEN John MFC - 4 games, 0 goals. Finally got the call to selection with the Demons when selected to fill a ruck position in the Port Adelaide game and was travelling along nicely until a stress fracture to his foot put an end to his season.

MILLER Brad MFC - 12 games, 13 goals, CFC Seniors - 3 games, 9 goals. Had a reasonably good start to the season but his form fell off in mid-season and has been with the Casey Scorpions for the past two games.

MOLONEY Brent MFC - 15 games, 3 goals. Over his groin and shoulder problems, Moloney has returned to the sort of form he showed in his first year at the club.

MORTON Cale MFC - 15 games, 5 goals Establishing himself as a future elite footballer and racking up some impressive numbers with 71 disposals in the past fortnight.

NEWTON Michael MFC - 2 games, 2 goals, CFC Seniors - 9 games, 24 goals. The enigmatic toward struggled in games with the Demons where his kicking for goal and decision and even his attitude questioned. Has worked hard at turning things around at Casey and deserves a recall.

PETTERD Ricky MFC - 12 games, 15 goals, CFC Seniors - 3 games, 3 goals. Gradually settling back after his injury woes and is still getting more consistency into his game.

RIVERS Jared MFC - 14 games, 0 goals. The injury prone defender is finding his feet back in the game and starting to get back some of his old form.

ROBERTSON Russell MFC - 9 games, 20 goals, CFC Seniors - 4 games, 12 goals. Robbo's successful return after a long period of recovery from his Achilles injury. Still not kicking bags of goals but provides a target up forward.

SPENCER Jake ® MFC - 2 games, 0 goals, CFC Seniors - 4 games, 0 goals, CFC Reserves - 3 game, 0 goals. Showed out in the opening NAB Cup game against Hawthorn and through the preseason to earn promotion from the rookie list. He was then outgunned by stronger more experienced ruckmen in his early games before suffering a series of injuries that have kept him mainly on the sidelines.

STRAUSS James CFC Seniors - 4 game, 1 goal, CFC Reserves - 4 games, 1 goal. Another whose start to the season was affected by injury and just when the sure footed defender was starting to show some form with Casey, a dislocated shoulder put him out until next season.

SYLVIA Colin MFC - 13 games, 15 goals. At long last, Sylvia has found form and consistency to become one of his team's most important players.

VALENTI Shane ® MFC - 1 game, 1 goal, CFC Seniors - 10 games, 4 goals. Valenti is considered too small and too slow and more suited for the VFL and has managed just one game with the Demons this year.

WARNOCK Matthew MFC - 14 games, 0 goals. One of many improving talls in the Demon defence, Warnock has established himself in the team.

WATTS Jack MFC - 3 games, 2 goals, CFC Seniors - 5 games, 4 goals, CFC Reserves - 2 games, 1 goal The schoolboy star has been given a taste of what to expect in the pressure cooker of AFL football.

WHEATLEY Paul MFC - 2 games, 0 goals, CFC Seniors - 3 games, 2 goals, CFC Reserves - 2 games, 0 goals. Took a while to break back into the Melbourne team after being kept out by a string of injuries.

WHELAN Matthew MFC - 6 games, 0 goals, CFC Seniors - 3 game, 1 goal, CFC Reserves - 3 games, 0 goals. Another of the Demon defenders troubled by injury this year, Whelan has been limited to only six games this season and his career is at the crossroads.

WONAEMIRRI Austin CFC Seniors - 2 games, 1 goal Another whose season has been curtailed by injury. Not due back for a month, if at all this year.

ZOMER Trent ® Seniors - 3 games, 1 goal, CFC Reserves - 9 games, 20 goals. Has shown good form at VFL reserves level with Casey but has struggled in his few games at senior level.