FROM THE VAULT

[Demonland 73,326]

I went digging in the vault to discover this match preview by The Oracle on the Port Adelaide v Melbourne game at AAMI Stadium played in Round 19, 2003:

GOING ON FORM by the Oracle

As a person who regards himself as something of an expert in predicting the results of sporting events involving both humankind and certain members of the animal kingdom, I have three rules.

1 Never ignore form,

2 Never ignore the bookies and

3 Never ignore possible unforeseen contingencies.

That said, I sat down with my pencil, paper, form guide, computer, crystal ball and a cheese, tomato and lettuce sandwich and took no time in coming up with a startling prediction for this week's Port Adelaide v Melbourne game at AAMI Stadium.

Firstly, the form is all on Port Adelaide's side. Mark Williams' team is sitting pretty, well on top of the table (two wins ahead of its nearest rival) and its record over the last five matches has been impeccable. Melbourne, on the other hand, has over the same period shown deteriorating form having been well beaten and embarrassed by two fellow cellar dwellers in the Western Bulldogs and Geelong in its last two outings. Supporters of both of those sides continue to look at me with a fair degree of arrogance when they discover that I not only support the Demons but that I also attend as many of its matches as I am able.

Secondly, the bookies. If the Dees get up against Port Adelaide this week, the bookies will pay out a $9.00 dividend. Nine bucks in a contest, which is supposed to be a two horse race. Think about that. If the match was considered to be even they would be offering around $1.85 so that suggests the bookies don't think much of Melbourne's chances.

Thirdly, unforeseen contingencies. I'll leave aside the possibility of a nuclear attack as such an eventuality is unlikely to be considered by anybody because it would take weeks or maybe even months for someone to notice such an event if Adelaide was the target. However, after consulting my crystal ball, I was reminded that an influenza virus has viciously struck down a football team from the City of Churches. Unfortunately, the victim of the devastation is not the Power but its sister club - the Crows.

My verdict therefore - Port to win by a substantial margin.

THE HISTORY

Four months ago, Melbourne was first declared to be in crisis after a shocking month that began with a loss at Skilled Stadium against the Cats, continued in Sydney when a four goal lead was quickly converted to a devastating loss with the Swans managing a 10 goal final quarter. Then, the Eagles kick ten in the third quarter to again overwhelm the Demons. A visit from Port Adelaide beckoned and the Dees were without Jeff White (knee). Melbourne officialdom was struck down by a bout of foot in the mouth disease and what happened? Melbourne recorded a much-needed victory over the Power 16.15.111 to 12.12.84 in round 7 at the MCG. Despite the crisis in confidence and the befuddled manner in which the team had been bumbling along, the forward line fired for once on all cylinders, the Demons jumped Port and David Neitz, Russell Robertson and Andrew Leoncelli each kicked three goals in a fine all round team performance. Chell's game was pretty good.

Is there any possibility that lightning can strike twice and that Melbourne could cause a second upset in the same season against the ladder leaders?

Not according to my form guide, bookie or crystal ball.

SELECTED LINE UPS

B Whelan Carroll Bizzell

F Dew S Burgoyne P Burgoyne

HB Brown Ferguson Ward

HF Pickett Tredrea C Cornes

C Walsh Yze Heffernan

C Stevens Carr James

HF Green Miller Bruce

HB Montgomery Paxman Wanganeen

F Jolly Neitz Robertson

B Bishop Wakelin Hardwick

Foll White Godfrey McDonald

Foll Brogan K Cornes Schofield

Int Armstrong Rivers Thompson Williams

Int Cochrane Cockatoo-Collins Lade Wilson

Em Hunter Jamar Lamb

Em Cassisi Morgan Poulton

INS AND OUTS

Melbourne

In Ferguson Green

Out Hunter (omitted) Nicholson (foot)

Port Adelaide

In P Burgoyne Montgomery Stevens Wakelin

Out Cassisi Guerra Morgan Poulton (all omitted)

Record Overall Port Adelaide 4 Melbourne 6

At AAMI Stadium Port Adelaide 4 Melbourne 2

This Decade Port Adelaide 2 Melbourne 3

The Coaches Daniher 4 Williams 3

Having a punt? Port Adelaide $1.06 Melbourne $9.00

The Media

TV: Fox Footy Extra, 7.30pm

Radio: Nowhere man unless you live in Adelaide.

TALKING POINTS

Selection

You have to hand it to the Melbourne selectors. They are not panicking and it's strictly line and length after five devastating losses. One compulsory change and one other. Ryan Ferguson comes back after a few fine performances with Sandy and Brad Green has done his penance after one good week in the Zebra midfield. I like it when teams are settled. It shows a football brains trust that is in control, knows what is doing and is firmly set on its planned course. I just hope the Qantas pilot taking the team to the game has the same attributes as they might otherwise end up in Alice Springs.

On the other hand, the Power have their feet planted firmly on the ground; even to the extent where they have stated that the selected side is about the best it could put on a football field (and that's allowing for an injury to skipper Primus because they have such great ruck strength). Into the side come Peter Burgoyne who is back from suspension and injured trio Brent Montgomery (back), Nick Stevens (knee) and Darryl Wakelin (ankle). Just our luck!

Rock Bottom?

A couple of weeks ago we finally hit rock bottom but unfortunately, the team has continued digging downwards and, on my calculations is due to reach the centre of the earth in about two week's time. After that, it's all the way up again and the Football Department can start learning to speak Mandarin.

The Future

At about the time that we hit rock bottom, I previewed the Telstra Dome clash against the Western Bulldogs and said that the game could quite easily determine Melbourne's draft position in November. The same applies now. A victory for the Demons would rule out a priority draft pick. If the Power wanted to be nasty, they could lie down this week and effectively put an end to that possibility.

Match Ups

White/Jolly v Brogan/Lade

The big question is whether there are any match ups that could prevent this game from becoming the one sided affair that everyone is predicting. I looked long and hard and found many potential mismatches before hitting on the one area where Melbourne might possibly have the edge. It's no surprise that I selected the rucks but I did so with a fair amount of trepidation and uncertainty.

Melbourne's big men are undoubtedly the enigma of the competition. Last week the Dees managed a staggering 65 hit outs to Geelong's 25. One would think that, with such a level of total domination in the rucks, the game would be set up for a Demon victory of the highest order. Unfortunately, the Demon midfield was incapable of capitalising on the hard work of White and Jolly and the Cats ended up with the advantage in terms of effective clearances from the stoppages. To add insult to injury, the Demon giants produced midget stats in terms of their possession of the football. One solitary kick between them against Chambers and Playfair, tow novice who didn't get much of the ball either but that would have been expected. And at least they got something. Chambers even kicked a couple of goals.

Against much more experienced ruckmen in Brogan and Lade, you would have to expect the Demon duo to improve markedly this week if the tide is to be stemmed.

Neitz v Paxman and co.

Not really a match up unless Neita starts leading and the men further afield actually find him. And when will the others in that Demon forward line start contributing in terms of scores or just keeping the ball inside the scoring area?

TIP

It could be ugly but have faith folks. Melbourne is the sort of team that will always defy my predictions. Against the Doggies, I suggested that Melbourne would record its biggest win of the year. It lost. This time I'm predicting that the Dees will suffer their biggest defeat of the year. Am I tempting fate?

Port Adelaide by 80 points.

Port Adelaide did go on to win the game but not by anywhere near 80 points. The final score was Port Adelaide17.10.112 to Melbourne 15.8.98.