2009 MELBOURNEFC SEASON PREVIEW - RE-SHAPING THE MELBOURNE IDENTITY

2009 MELBOURNEFC SEASON PREVIEW - RE-SHAPING THE MELBOURNE IDENTITY from the Blog of Dee man (Kevin Hawkins)

Let's face it; Melbourne aren't going to win the premiership this year. Nor will they challenge for the finals. In fact - to be plainly honest - the Dees will be lucky to escape from the wooden spoon for the second year running.

However, ladder position should not be the main concern for the Demons in 2009. This season is about development and improvement. In 2008 we saw the changing of the guard. In 2009 the focus must be on building the foundations. Forget wins and losses; if Dean Bailey can finish the season with a team of 22 footballers capable of claiming a future premiership, '09 can be considered a success.

As it stands, Melbourne has roughly ten players who wouldn't look out of place at a Hawthorn or Geelong. The usual suspects Brad Green, Cameron Bruce, Matthew Whelan and Brock McLean would fit in like peas and carrot, while veterans such as Paul Wheatley and new captain James McDonald wouldn't disgrace themselves either. Through in a fit Aaron Davey, an in-form Colin Sylvia and young defensive duo Matthew Warnock and Colin Garland and you've got yourselves a decent list of footballers.

One may also be inclined to include TV personality Russell Robertson, former Rising Star winner Jared Rivers and would-be premiership player Brent Moloney in that category, however a poor run injuries has demoted all three to the fringes of Melbourne's best 22. A colossal comeback season – particularly from the latter two – is essential to the immediate future of the club.

What Dean Bailey must do is accept reality and realise that 4-5 of those guys will be well past their peak by the time Melbourne challenges for its next flag – whenever that may be. Which means there are still more than a dozen holes needed to be filled before the Demons can consider themselves a threat to rival clubs. Hence, Bailey's objective for his sophomore season must be to push the also-rans of the club to the next level.

Strong bodied forwards Brad Miller and Matthew Bate look the most likely to step up, but both need to kick more goals. No one at Melbourne managed to kick more than 30 last season. In contrast, six Dogs did, five Cats did and three Hawks did. A strong forward line wins games, but as it stands no one at Melbourne looks capable of kicking bags of 5 or more. With Neita gone, Robbo hobbling, Michael Newton going nowhere and youngsters Jack Watts and Liam Jurrah still a few years off, Miller and Bate must make FF and CHF their own. Both are confident players with leadership qualities who, if they hold onto their marks and kick straight, can bolster the Melbourne revival.

Nathan Jones is another who could be on the verge of something big. There is no doubting that Jones will be around for a long time, but the question is: when he finishes his career will he be remembered as a star or simply an 'honest, hard working battler'. Like so many others, Jones is currently heading towards that unflattering latter category, but let's not forget that he finished 2^nd in the B+F only two years ago. His kicking and decision making may still require fine-tuning, but Jones runs hard, finds the ball easily and isn't afraid of showing off his aggression, three valuable traits any coach would be pleased with.

Jones leads a bunch of young men who could become the nucleus of the Melbourne side within a couple of years, however individual flaws must be addressed beforehand. Simon Buckley is arguably the most exciting footballer to pull on the red and blue since the Wiz, but his decision making ability must not relapse back to the disastrous stage it was at early last year. In his fourth season, Clint Bartram must reward the faith of the selectors – who made him an automatic selection throughout '06 and '08 – with a breakthrough year. With a strong engine and spiky blonde hair, Bartram looks like he should be winning Brownlow votes, but as it stands his role in the team is questionable. Meanwhile, Austin Wonaeamirri has had a big pre-season, but it will be worth nothing if he is unable to last the full 22 rounds again.

The others have more noticeable blemishes. Hypothetically, not one of Lynden Dunn, Ricky Petterd, James Frawley, Michael Newton, Daniel Bell or Mark Jamar could walk into a rival club and get a walk-up start; not even Fremantle. Nevertheless, this contingent – along with '08 debutants Cale Morton, Addam Maric, Stefan Martin, Jack Grimes and Shane Valenti – must be given regular opportunities in the seniors during the year, regardless of form slumps.

A few seasons back we saw Hawthorn experiment by allowing Zac Dawson – a skinny boy way out of his league – to contest with strong power forwards. Dawson may now be a Saint rookie, but the boldness and persistence shown by the Hawks coaching staff is the exact reason why they rose from cellar dwellers to premiers in such a rapid time frame.

Bailey and co. must follow Hawthorn's lead. Already we have witnessed the consequences of not giving developing players a go. Week in, week out, Chris Johnson was earning best on grounds in the VFL while Melbourne was being demoralised a level higher. No wonder he left on such unpleasant terms. It wouldn't surprise many fans to see CJ take his game to a new level at Carlton. The past is the past, however, and Melbourne can't afford to worry about what they can no longer control.

What Melbourne can control is their destiny. There isn't a player on Melbourne's list that doesn't deserve to be there. Even the rookies are an exciting bunch; ruckman Jake Spencer is already making mouths water and pressuring the likes of Jamar, John Meesen and, to a lesser extent, Paul Johnson to lift.

It wouldn't be a season preview without a bold prediction, so I won't leave you disappointed. I don't expect the Demons to win more than five games. Nor do I expect VCE students Jack Watts or Sam Blease to burst onto the scene and unleash themselves as the second coming. They probably won't even play a game. On the contrary, I have high hopes for a couple of individuals to make their mark on the competition in the same way that the likes of Garland and 'Wonna' did in '08.

Watch out for one Stefan Martin to step up and become a star defender. He has all the hallmarks of a dominant AFL footballer - height, strength, speed and skill - and can read the play incredibly well for a guy who only picked up the game a couple of years ago. Jack Grimes is another to watch. His only appearance last season may not have given fans many clues as to his ability, but he is a ball magnet who has a valuable touch of leadership. He will finish top 5 in the Rising Star and average over 20 disposals.

Of the debutants, expect Rohan Bail to shine. After winning the Rising Star in the AFLQ last year, Bail has the same credentials that Davey and Valenti had before joining the Dees. His experience should see him accumulate more game time and possessions than the likes of Neville Jetta, Jamie Bennell and Kyle Cheney – all of whom should be commencing their careers in '09 after promising pre-seasons.

But arguably the most important player on the Melbourne list this season is Colin Sylvia, who last year continued his encouraging – yet frustratingly slow - progression. He is now fit enough to be an on-baller, skilful enough to be a playmaker and strong enough to be a power forward. Many supporters may have lost patience with him, but a top 5 best and fairest place beckons in 2009.

However, single players don't win premierships. Teams do. And Melbourne – as a collective – must show mass signs of improvement. A Rising Star nomination or a Brownlow vote may look fancy on paper, but they are not going to give the Demons long term success. Each and every player on the Melbourne list must take a step forward this season, injuries being the only valid excuse. Those that have reached a plateau and those that are on the decline are now superfluous to Melbourne's plans and Bailey should make it clear that '09 is a make or break year for everyone. Including himself.

Author's note: Unfortunately I will miss every game from Round 2 onwards as I will be away doing volunteer work in South Africa until the end of the year. To cover for my absence, here are the premature working titles for the later season reviews:

Mid Season (3^rd - 9 wins, 2 losses) – Like A Bat out of Hell

End of Season Review (1^st - 19 wins, 2 losses, 1 draw) – The Melbourne Supremacy

Grand Final Preview – The Melbourne Ultimatum – Premiership or Choke?

Grand Final Review – Melbourne Victory!

If the season does not pan out exactly as I have predicted above, please do not inform me as I would rather remain ignorant and happy.

[Editor's Note: Thanks Kevin and all the best in your work over in South Africa. Hope the year brings you good news from home]