THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2008: ZERO HOUR

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THE TRADING CHRONICLES 2008: ZERO HOUR by the Oracle

NEW HOME GUIDE

The stock market is in free fall, the economy is crook and the business pages of the newspapers are full of gloom, doom and bankrupt companies. Yet, despite all that, there are always people around who believe the best strategy is to buck the trend. Times are bad? Go out and find a new home.

That's exactly what some AFL footballers will be doing this week and, if the price tags being touted for the likes of Sydney player Ryan O'Keefe and young Docker ruckman Robert Warnock are correct, then its an excellent strategy because all 16 AFL clubs seem to have plenty of the green folding notes to throw at almost any player of note who can still draw breath.

The representatives of those clubs will meet this morning to discuss their options for the Exchange Period which concludes at 2.00pm on Friday 10 October 2008.

As usual, the week ahead promises a lot and is most likely going to deliver very little. That's the vision I have for the next five days and, on the basis, today should provide almost no entertainment for the punters out there who might be hanging out for some good news from their club on player movements.

Sure, there will be lots of AFL type heads involved close discussion with their compatriots from the various clubs, a small dose of posturing from some of them and from the managers of players who either want to go elsewhere or just want a better deal. But very little of a concrete nature will get done today.

You might also cop a glimpse or two of the club coaches wandering aimlessly about the place looking very concerned and serious about the proceedings except for Port Adelaide's Mark Williams who will be grinning like a Cheshire cat and mumbling something about how he's prepared to let go of draft picks 4 and 22 if the right deal comes along. Williams should be flogging steak knives on late night television these days rather than coaching.

Today is the day for preparation, for setting the scene and wrinkling out some information as to who and what's available and on the table for discussion - an introduction to the real estate market. Most of the meaty stuff will start coming out by midweek and the bulk of the trades will be cemented with the signing of contracts in the frenetic final hours before the gates and the fax machines at AFL House are shut tight on Friday afternoon.

A couple of years ago the opening day proceedings saw one big deal consummated when Brisbane and the Western Bulldogs agreed on trade terms over Jason Akermanis but that wasn't such a stunning outcome because every man and his dog in the football world knew that the Lions wanted to see the back of their Brownlow Medallist sooner rather than later and the feeling was mutual.

Most of the time however, things don't happen so quickly because there are always a couple of major trades in the offing that are intricate and require a substantial amount of fine tuning and a bit of argy bargy along the way.

This year, there is a difference of opinion as to how many trades will be concluded over the week. It seems that most clubs are eager to hold onto their early draft picks as they are wary of the changes being introduced to allow for new players in the market - clubs from the Gold Coast and West Sydney that will come into the competition in 2011 and 2012. Next year, the minimum draft age will be increased by four months so the pool of new players available in the 2009 draft will be less than usual. The following year, the Goald Coasters will have the Lion's share (no pun intended) of early draft picks. After that it will be West Sydney's turn (if the AFL can get that outfit off the ground by then). In any event, the uncertainty surrounding the mooted changes has many clubs looking on the trade period with a fair deal of caution.

The first business that actually gets done is the bidding for father/son selections and this year, the sole nominee is young ruckman Ayce Cordy who wants to go to the Western Bulldogs but must wait on a bidding process to be undertaken whereby any other club can bid for him by nominating a round in the draft in which it wants to select him. If that happens the Bulldogs must use their next available selection if they wish to retain hold of Cordy. If not, the club with the successful bid must use that selection at the Draft.

Once the father/son issue is out of the way, proceedings will start in earnest. The key rules to note in the trading/drafting process are:-

• A club may exchange a player or players on its primary list for a player or players on the primary list of another club;

• A club may exchange a player or players on its primary list for the draft selection or draft selections of another club;

• A club may exchange a player or players on its primary list for a combination of a player, players, draft selection or draft selection of another club;

• A club may exchange a draft selection or draft selections for a draft selection or draft selections of another club;

• No more than five players shall be exchanged by any one club.

• No more than three players shall be exchanged by any one club in any one transaction, or series of related or interdependent transactions.

• A club cannot on-trade a player received in any exchange until the following year.

• A club may exchange a draft selection it has received from another club, provided that the selection is not traded directly back to that club.

• Where the exchange of a player(s) and draft selection(s) involves more than two clubs, it is not a requirement that each club involved in the transaction make an exchange between each other.

• Any draft selection received in an exchange does not need to be exercised. However, any club that passes on a draft selection shall be excluded from exercising any remaining selections at that same meeting.

For the first time in over a decade Melbourne will have a new man in charge of its recruiting – Barry Prendergast who will have the honour of kicking off proceedings when the 2008 AFL Nation Draft meeting takes place at the end of next month. Prendergast has the role of presiding over the changes to the club’s playing list which, at the end of the 2008 playing season read as follows:-

MELBOURNE FOOTBALL CLUB - PLAYING LIST (SEASON 2008)

SENIOR LIST:

Clint Bartram Matthew Bate Daniel Bell Jace Bode Cameron Bruce Simon Buckley Nathan Carroll Kyle Cheney Aaron Davey Lynden Dunn James Frawley Colin Garland Brad Green Jack Grimes Ben Holland Mark Jamar Chris Johnson Paul Johnson Nathan Jones James McDonald Brock McLean Tom McNamara Addam Maric Stefan Martin John Meesen Brad Miller Brent Moloney Cale Morton Michael Newton Ricky Petterd Jared Rivers Russell Robertson Colin Sylvia Matthew Warnock Isaac Weetra Paul Wheatley Matthew Whelan Jeff White

VETERAN LIST David Neitz Adem Yze

ROOKIE LIST:

Jake Spencer Shane Valenti Austin Wonaeamirri Trent Zomer

The club's list has already been trimmed with the retirements of former skipper David Neitz and Ben Holland, the announcements that new contracts would not be offered to Jeff White and Adem Yze and the delisting of Jace Bode and Isaac Weetra. No decision has yet been made as to the elevation of rookies Valenti and Wonaeamirri who both were given senior status as long term injury replacements.

The other bargaining chips of trade week are the draft picks themselves. This is how they line up before the exchange period starts –

Round One -

1. Melbourne 2. West Coast 3. Fremantle 4. Port Adelaide 5. Essendon 6. Carlton 7. Brisbane 8. Richmond 9. North Melbourne 10. Adelaide 11. Collingwood 12. Sydney 13. St. Kilda 14. Western Bulldogs 15. Geelong 16. Hawthorn

Priority Round -

17. Melbourne 18. West Coast

Round Two -

19. Melbourne 20. West Coast 21. Fremantle 22. Port Adelaide 23. Essendon 24. Carlton 25. Brisbane 26. Richmond 27. North Melbourne 28. Adelaide 29. Collingwood 30. Sydney 31. St. Kilda 32. Western Bulldogs 33. Geelong 34. Hawthorn

Round Three -

35. Melbourne 36. West Coast 37. Fremantle 38. Port Adelaide 39. Essendon 40. Carlton 41. Brisbane 42. Richmond 43. North Melbourne 44. Adelaide 45. Collingwood 46. Sydney 47. St. Kilda 48. Western Bulldogs 49. Geelong 50. Hawthorn

Round Four -

51. Melbourne 52. West Coast 53. Fremantle 54. Port Adelaide 55. Essendon 56. Carlton 57. Brisbane 58. Richmond 59. North Melbourne 60. Adelaide 61. Collingwood 62. Sydney 63. St. Kilda 64. Western Bulldogs 65. Geelong 66. Hawthorn

Round Five -

67. Melbourne 68. West Coast 69. Fremantle 70. Port Adelaide 71. Essendon 72. Carlton 73. Brisbane 74. Richmond 75. North Melbourne 76. Adelaide 77. Collingwood 78. Sydney 79. St. Kilda 80. Western Bulldogs 81. Geelong 82. Hawthorn

The draft will go to further rounds as required to fulfil each club's quota of players.

Once the big names like Jonathan Brown and Daniel Kerr decided that their old homes were nice and comfortable (and their own clubs helped pay off their mortgages), the main trade interest in the market has been on Warnock and more lately O'Keefe. Melbourne's own Brad Green has been mentioned in despatches along with others such as disgruntled West Coast ruckman Mark Seaby, injured Geelong midfielder Brent Prismall, Kangaroo Daniel Harris, the Western Bulldogs' Farren Ray and Essendon's Andrew Lovett. Other names will emerge as the week unfolds.

So the housing market is about to hot up. The scene is set and let the trade week begin ...