THE LAST FRONTIER

[Demonland 73,208]

by Whispering Jack

Melbourne coach Dean Bailey has faced many difficult challenges in his debut season. His team currently occupies the last place on the AFL ladder so it would be fair to say that most of those challenges remain unfulfilled and that any moves in a forward direction have been small steps on what is a very long journey.

One thing Bailey has done is that he has honoured his pledge to focus on youth and to rebuild the club so that his new look Demons have managed to show glimpses of improvement each week and this has provided supporters with hope for the club's future in what has been an otherwise dismal season.

This week Bailey and his team face up to a challenge that caused great heartburn to his predecessor in his latter years as coach. The Demons made the finals in three of Neale Daniher's last four seasons but the challenge of distance was never really countered in any meaningful way during that time. Melbourne continues to struggle whenever it crosses the western border of the home state. Victory in South Australia has been elusive for more than seven years while its last win in the West came during a raging storm in Round 11, 2004 against Fremantle. A young Brock McLean was the hero that day in what was his break out game.

Things have changed considerably since then. While the Demons languish on the bottom of the ladder, the Western Australian teams have also fallen on hard times and the days when the very thought of a visit to Subiaco Oval would fill the hearts of the other AFL teams and their supporters with fear, dread and loathing are well and truly over.

Not only have the two WA sides collectively failed to win a single game in 2008 outside their home state but they also barely raise a whimper on their own turf these days. Leaving aside the Round 3 Derby from which Fremantle emerged victorious by 14 points, the once devastating Sandgroper home advantage has produced only three wins this season – two for the Eagles, Brisbane (Round 1) and Adelaide (Round 9) and one for the Dockers against North Melbourne in Round 12.

Bailey is trying something new for Melbourne's return game with the Dockers - a new travel plan that he hopes will turn around his team's poor record in the west. The Demons will leave a day earlier than usual - on Friday afternoon - in the hope that the additional time spent in Perth will give them the extra edge that has been missing so often in the past.

The visitors will need that extra edge on Sunday because Fremantle is still smarting from the embarrassment of their Round 7 fiasco when they allowed a rank underdog to storm home from a long way down and win by six points at the MCG. Melbourne continues its painfully slow improvement since breaking the ice that day but apart from that narrow victory over Brisbane just before the last break, they have had precious little to celebrate in their own season from hell.

This game takes on even greater significance in that a win for either side ensures that it will make a slight progression in the battle to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon (although the Eagles seem to have a mortgage on that "prize" if one goes by their form and attitude in recent games). Melbourne also has a significantly softer programme in the remaining 7 weeks of the season with only one assignment against a top eight side.

The poor records of both the Dees and the Dockers mean that 2008 is unlikely to provide supporters with happy memories in the years to come. The best that the Melbourne faithful can hope for is that they will look back on it as the time when the seeds for revival were planted and when its new look youth oriented team finally conquered that last frontier in the west.

THE GAME Fremantle v Melbourne at Subiaco - Sunday 20 July 2008 at 4:40pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD

Overall Fremantle 12 wins Melbourne 11 wins

At Subiaco Fremantle 6 wins Melbourne 3 wins

Since 2000 Fremantle 8 wins Melbourne 6 wins

The Coaches Harvey 0 wins Bailey 1 win

MEDIA

TV Fox Sports 1 (Live at 4.30pm AEST)

RADIO ABC774 SEN

THE BETTING Fremantle to win $1.47 Melbourne to win $2.50

LAST TIME THEY MET Melbourne 17.17.119 defeated Fremantle 15.23.113 at the MCG Round 7, 2008.

Melbourne trailed by 51 points at the main break and appeared down and out for the count. The last half was extraordinary with the home side producing the second greatest comeback in the game's history. Brock McLean dominated in the middle and Russell Robertson and Austin Wonaeamirri booted four goals each to leave the Dockers and the rest of the football world stunned by the Demons' six point victory against all the odds.

THE TEAMS

FREMANTLE

Backs Scott Thornton Luke McPharlin Antoni Grover

Half backs Josh Head Michael Johnson Steven Dodd

Centreline Shaun McManus Josh Carr David Mundy

Half forwards Mark Johnson Matthew Pavlich Andrew Browne

Forwards Chris Mayne Chris Tarrant Robert Warnock

Followers Aaron Sandilands Ryan Crowley Garrick Ibbotson

Interchange Jeff Farmer Brock O'Brien Brett Peake Byron Schammer

Emergencies Kepler Bradley Paul Duffield Ryan Murphy

In Josh Head Shaun McManus Brock O'Brien

Out Clayton Hinkley Rhys Palmer (general soreness) Dean Solomon (suspended)

MELBOURNE

Backs Matthew Whelan Colin Garland Matthew Warnock

Half backs Chris Johnson Paul Wheatley Lynden Dunn

Centreline Cale Morton Cameron Bruce Simon Buckley

Half forwards Colin Sylvia Matthew Bate Aaron Davey

Forwards Paul Johnson Brad Miller Austin Wonaeamirri

Followers Mark Jamar Clint Bartram Nathan Jones

Interchange Daniel Bell Stefan Martin Michael Newton Shane Valenti

Emergencies James McDonald Jeff White Adem Yze

In Aaron Davey

Out Brad Green (hamstring)

Umpires Kennedy Hendrie Avon

THE SHOOTOUT

We are entering a round of matches that presents some fascinating contests that promise to play a major role in shaping the make up of the top four and the final eight. Sunday's game between Fremantle and Melbourne is not one of them although it is also not without interest (especially if you happen to be a fan of one of the clubs). The fixtures will certainly be focal in determining where these clubs finish at the end of the year and the cynics will say it’s all about losing and shoring up a better position when draft day comes around in November.

For Melbourne’s part however, it is clear that this game is being taken seriously and the object of the exercise is to bring home the four premiership points that are on offer. The Demons suffered a major blow with the hamstring injury to Brad Green who has been in superlative form whether playing forward, down back or in the midfield. His loss will be partly covered by the return of Aaron Davey after his Darwin indiscretion. The selectors have also shown they mean business by including the experienced trio of James McDonald, Jeff White and Adem Yze in the initial squad for the game.

The Dockers have been in a winning position on a number of occasions this year but have lacked the fitness and/or the discipline to secure the points. They lost Dean Solomon as a result of his errant elbow and, in a surprise move, omitted young gun Rhys Palmer who is suffering from "general soreness". Granted that a young player can be sore but Palmer has been one of Freo's better midfielders in the absence of Hasleby, Headland and now Bell and you would think an eight day break would be enough to overcome the sore spots. Further, why rest a kid from a game that's eminently winnable and why do that after he's been given a bit of a touch up by the physical Cats? Still, that's their problem - for Sunday's game it means the Docker midfield is that extra bit weaker and, as a result, the supply to its match winning power forward will be even more diminished.

That power forward features in most peoples' key match up for this game. Matthew Pavlich is the one man who can make or break the game as far as Fremantle is concerned. Colin Garland will get the first crack based on his sensational rise to prominence as a defender of note at Demonland. The assignment on Pavlich looms as his toughest - even more of a test than when Garland kept Buddy Franklin in check against the Hawks. The young Demon's cause will naturally be assisted greatly if Melbourne can will the battle of the midfield but if Pav is causing damage, the Dees have Matty Warnock and Stef Martin in the wings to lend their assistance.

The ruck duels will certainly stretch the Demon duo of Mark Jamar and Paul Johnson. Sandilands and Robert Warnock have an enormous height advantage over them and if big Aaron is on song, it could spell trouble. I'd like to see M Warnock line up on brother R Warnock for reasons of promoting family values but the height difference looks a little beyond the improving Demon defender.

The Demons might miss out in the ruck but they have the weapons in the midfield to nullify the Dockers' advantage in height. Cameron Bruce is coming good in the midfield and the little terriers in Nathan Jones and Shane Valenti should enjoy the conditions and any residual rough stuff that Freo might want to hand out after last week's fiasco.

Melbourne's weak spot this year has been in its attack where the loss of some major figures earlier in the year left it short in talent and floundering in the key positions. Brad Miller is slowly re-emerging in the centre half forward position and looks to have regained the confidence that went missing for a couple of years when the club experimented with him as a defender. If Michael Newton, who is on the second week of his comeback trail, can do much the same thing then the Demons will be on the road to only their third win for the season.

And that leads to my prediction that Melbourne will make its break through in the west and win this game by the slender margin of 6 points.